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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

No, your not allowed to post porn.

haha so I'll just say this, based on 10:1 it has 19-21 in Boston, 12-17 around Plymouth and 6-8 around the Cape and the Islands.  13-18 in Western and Central Mass and 12-17 in eastern CT and RI and 15-20 across western and central CT.  For the northern guys it has 12-15 inches in VT except for the far north where it's 9-10 and it has 15-18 across most of NH except the far north where its 12-14.  Coastal NH and Southern Maine have around 20 inches and most of the rest of Maine has 12-18 except the far northern areas which have 4-9 inches and inland Central Maine which has 8-12.

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

haha so I'll just say this, based on 10:1 it has 19-21 in Boston, 12-17 around Plymouth and 6-8 around the Cape and the Islands.  13-18 in Western and Central Mass and 12-17 in eastern CT and RI and 15-20 across western and central CT.  For the northern guys it has 12-15 inches in VT except for the far north where it's 9-10 and it has 15-18 across most of NH except the far north where its 12-14.  Coastal NH and Southern Maine have around 20 inches and most of the rest of Maine has 12-18 except the far northern areas which have 4-9 inches and inland Central Maine which has 8-12.

Do the math with those mid levels that lift  that cold, it's 18 to 24 if not more from Maryland to  Maine.  See ya tomorrow 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do the math with those mid levels that lift  that cold, it's 18 to 24 if not more from Maryland to  Maine.  See ya tomorrow 

do you mean 12-1 ratios should be used instead of 10-1?....sweet dreams man.....

 

Oh okay I see what you mean, the ratios in the northern areas will be much higher and make up for less moisture so the amounts will be more evenly spread out! :)

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Very nice. Happy for this bathroom wake. Agree with Ginxy, lol at the meh its just 2" qpf wtf, what have we become? I guess its 40-50" or bust now ey...

Now we wait until James wakes from his weenie nap to tell us how the euro was right at 12z and not at 0z. 

Still ways to go though but dont completely discount a hugger, just from a pure variance standpoint. And please, no more cmc talk it kills me to see peeps factoring it in lol. 

Another day marked off the calendar, 3 days to go, but just the beginning of the JP brawls. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Very nice. Happy for this bathroom wake. Agree with Ginxy, lol at the meh its just 2" qpf wtf, what have we become? I guess its 40-50" or bust now ey...

Now we wait until James wakes from his weenie nap to tell us how the euro was right at 12z and not at 0z. 

Still ways to go though but dont completely discount a hugger, just from a pure variance standpoint. And please, no more cmc talk it kills me to see peeps factoring it in lol. 

Anothet day marked off the calendar, 3 days to go, but just the beginning of the JP brawls. 

I'm watching the lowly srefs shift east so I thInk I would adjust my thoughts to east of the canal but we'll see in the morning.

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z EPS definite tick west vs. 12z

tracks more or less over BM but then has a more NNE trajectory vs. NE at 12z

looks like most members to the left and has a few over land now

do they output totals for the EPS? I was hearing snowfall totals also shifted west, even over the OP

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's not an all time storm setup. For that you would need a stall blocking phasing etc. we don't have that. 

We rarely seem to get that these days :(

Although you can get a ton of snow in even a less than ideal scenario, I got 30"+ in Jan 2016's big storm with 3" LE

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Just now, Paragon said:

We rarely seem to get that these days :(

Although you can get a ton of snow in even a less than ideal scenario, I got 30"+ in Jan 2016's big storm with 3" LE

It's a doozy type storm, but for an all timer? I don't think so. At least for our region. 

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 It's basically this. If you have all srn stream, those typically fly out of the Deep South when they come out of the gulf and the residence time of the associated low pressure that affects us, pounds us, but is a bit too progressive. If it phases we basically have a taint risk this go around. So IMO, at least for the region, I don't see this as an all time setup. It's one that could dump maybe 2' in a small zone, but that still probably wouldn't qualify as a top 5 event. 

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