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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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Thanks PF, west of 90 ftl. I know earlier frames still get it west of 90 but we know how these go. you can print out qpf maps all you want and say 15:1 on 1.2 is great but reality is you suck on the tailpipe with a dust storm outside, its more like .5 qpf. Anyhow, the 0z suite should reveal a layer of what's hiding in the closet. 

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will, DIT 40/70 Ray the holy trinity of weenies

And I'm the one with the weenie tag......ok sorry.....couldn't resist.....it's dead time before GFS.....love those pics of Rev no question.....if we can manage a Feb 2013 I'd be all set with this winter......greatest storm ever here in WeHa since 2004 when we moved here

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Greatest storm potential since the Blizzard of 2015, in fact the Blizzard of 2005, and the Blizzard of 2015, both analogs.  We should definitely know what happens by the time 00z Monday runs come through given that the models today show the clipper low entering the US in 45-48 hours from now.  The southern stream disturbance is over the US by 40-42 hours and into the northern Plains by 48 hours.  The GFS and EURO are having a battle over where if any phasing occurs, and where that phasing occurs.  The 18z GFS took a large step towards the EURO solution and showed a slower phase happening.  I don't think we want a sooner phase, that places the low over the CT River Valley.  We want a latter happening phase, one that occurs at the benchmark rather than the NJ coastline.  PLus we want a later phase because a later phase allows the southern stream to deepen further without the energy associated with the northern stream, once the northern stream happens, we want it towards the benchmark as well and then it occludes right over the benchmark and stalls rather than a full fledged blizzard over Albany, it happens over the coastline.  Winds and coastal flooding have the potential to become major time impacts also I don't believe any rain happens in this system.  With the fact that the NAVGEM model is in favor of a blizzard and east of the benchmark at 971mb tells us that the GFS is too far west right now.  The UKMET model lends some credence to the GFS, but the GFS already began caving towards the EURO at 18z.  I think we have a Blizzard on our hands and the EURO model is the one to follow.

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