powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: 12z definitely vaporized that southern wave. There could be convective feedback issues, but we don't really know to what degree. You can bank on there being plenty of convection though. I always thought convective feedback was more of an easterly thing...like convection running out ahead causes the model to focus on that area of lift instead of where the best upper level support is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks wierd, agree. All waa, hardly a defined ccd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: February 2013 22-24" here with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: just to clarify i think it's being too northern stream dominant. why would a southern wave with a juicy gulf connection just vaporize? Right. I don't think you would get such a well defined feature like that to just disappear in 6 hours like it did at 12z. Just now, powderfreak said: I always thought convective feedback was more of an easterly thing...like convection running out ahead causes the model to focus on that area of lift instead of where the best upper level support is? That is usually the issue when a nice wave hits the Gulf Stream, but when you drag a shortwave across the Gulf Coast you fire off convection back in LA and that can actually pump heights up ahead of it and cause a more westerly track. Now the latter is a more physically reality than the former, so less a feedback problem and more of a monkey wrench for modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GFS does look funny. It has a narrow but massive QPF swath and then loses it at BID all of the sudden. GFS really struggled with the Feb '13 blizzard didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 22-24" here with that storm. Oh right, duh. I missed that one so I sometimes forget the rest of you did not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: GFS really struggled with the Feb '13 blizzard didn't it? For awhile,yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For awhile,yes. The entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Right. I don't think you would get such a well defined feature like that to just disappear in 6 hours like it did at 12z. That is usually the issue when a nice wave hits the Gulf Stream, but when you drag a shortwave across the Gulf Coast you fire off convection back in LA and that can actually pump heights up ahead of it and cause a more westerly track. Now the latter is a more physically reality than the former, so less a feedback problem and more of a monkey wrench for modeling. Thanks. Makes sense. Toggling between 12z and 18z the phase seems a little cleaner but still the northern stream does suck that up awfully quick from hr 72-90 on the 18z run. I see what you guys are saying looking at the 500mb vorticity plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 this just doesn't look right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I agree Forky. This is why I don't trust the GFS with this...unless I see a reason to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this just doesn't look right It looks oh' so right from my living room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Doesn't the NAVGEM have a slight SE bias, or is that just weenie folklore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 How are tides looking for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The entire time It literally caught on while the worst of the storm was in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: How are tides looking for the coast? Full moon Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I agree Forky. This is why I don't trust the GFS with this...unless I see a reason to do so. It doesn't look "clean"...like mechanics-wise for a mid-latitude cyclone with WCB and CCB type development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this just doesn't look right But you are beautiful. Is that really your pic?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll always remember Feb '13 as an EE storm. The Euro had big QPF then the NAM came in and doubled it, while the GFS was weaker and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: GFS has me measuring with a yardstick. GFS tells me I can stop trying to find an excuse to go to Maine. I'm beginning to see a Tuesday snowday in the cards. Hell, maybe Wednesday to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z It went over SE MA on that run, not exactly offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It went over SE MA on that run, not exactly offshore. It shifted 150 miles east at 0z and 150 west again 12z. I mean not offshore has a 3000 mile goal post. consistency of the euro is nice. Forgetting about the western limit it was damned good. For us in feb 2013 and again Jan .2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: GFS tells me I can stop trying to find an excuse to go to Maine. I'm beginning to see a Tuesday snowday in the cards. Hell, maybe Wednesday to boot. See what taking time off from the board does to your psyche, you are a new man today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It shifted 150 miles east at 0z and 150 west again 12z. I mean not offshore has a 3000 mile goal post. consistency of the euro is nice. Forgetting about the western limit it was damned good. For us in feb 2013 and again Jan .2016. Let's skip the semantics with the 3000 miles. The Ukie has been consistently on shore, and the bottom line is that is not so good for our hoods, as opposed to the Euro, which has been consistently offshore, to be more precise, around the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, BRSno said: Doesn't the NAVGEM have a slight SE bias, or is that just weenie folklore? you didn't ask me but I'd say the NAVGEM has an existence bias - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Let's skip the semantics with the 3000 miles. The Ukie has been consistently on shore, and the bottom line is that is not so good for our hoods, as opposed to the Euro, which has been consistently offshore, to be more precise, around the benchmark. The Ukie was offshore at 0z. A hugger, but not inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I'm most concerned about the northern stream interactions at this point. Because of parallax issues, satellite estimates tend to think northern stream waves are more shallow than actuality, especially that stuff coming out of the Arctic. We may see that trend stronger with time. Parallax issues ? ...that's a new one for me... or, wait - is that similar to the perspective issues they have with fragmented image integrations with intelligence satellite imagery? that's where they have to sky scrapers right next to each other and because of slight variations in the vantage the buildings look like they are leaning on one another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: How are tides looking for the coast? In and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: Up and down. In and out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: In and out? "Yea tide goes in tide goes out never a miscommunication"-Bill Orielly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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