Model Mayhem VI

[OceanStWx]

I'm most concerned about the northern stream interactions at this point. Because of parallax issues, satellite estimates tend to think northern stream waves are more shallow than actuality, especially that stuff coming out of the Arctic. We may see that trend stronger with time.  

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm most concerned about the northern stream interactions at this point. Because of parallax issues, satellite estimates tend to think northern stream waves are more shallow than actuality, especially that stuff coming out of the Arctic. We may see that trend stronger with time.  

0z Sunday, Is it onshore?

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Tip, does this storm bear any similarities to the infamous debacle of 16 years ago? Personally, I would be pleased with a combo of 1888 and 1993.

Lol, what a comment. that's like saying, does this look like Mama June? Cuz I'd prefer a ménage with Kate Upton and Alicia Vikander. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Besides Hurricane Sandy...I don't particularly remember when a model run 4.5 days out nailed the intensity and track of a storm.

Yes, it's quite entertaining to look at all these maps coming out...but like Tip, I'm in the wait and see camp...

Not gonna nail the very fine details, but I do remember the Euro pretty much not wavering at this time lead in the January 12, 2011 storm....also Feb 2013. It was pretty steadfast.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z Sunday, Is it onshore?

That's my benchmark. I think so.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's my benchmark. I think so.

Then we can probably start to consider the Op runs in that suite then.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

That's my benchmark. I think so.

I'm in the same boat even though my confidence is higher than normal at this point.

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not gonna nail the very fine details, but I do remember the Euro pretty much not wavering at this time lead in the January 12, 2011 storm....also Feb 2013. It was pretty steadfast.

Feb 13 immediately came to mind

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm in the same boat even though my confidence is higher than normal at this point.

I would agree with that. It's a strong signal for a storm, but the complex nature of phasing could lead to an all timer or just another storm.

[JC-CT]

Also with last year's blizzard (NYC/MA) models struggled with the northern extent but nailed the general idea several days out.

[BRSno]

It's official now, it's coming

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I would agree with that. It's a strong signal for a storm, but the complex nature of phasing could lead to an all timer or just another storm.

Correct and we all know that. It's not often that all timer comes into the discussion. Anyone who is pretending that they aren't rooting for an all timer is fooling exactly no one. But I hope everyone understands the uncertainty at this lead time.

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, BRSno said:

It's official now, it's coming

 

oh no, not him

[OceanStWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Correct and we all know that. It's not often that all timer comes into the discussion. Anyone who is pretending that they aren't rooting for an all timer is fooling exactly no one. But I hope everyone understands the uncertainty at this lead time.

Well I mean it's not unreasonable to think some cities have a top 20 snowfall potential given the set up. So say, pushing 18" at BOS.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Correct and we all know that. It's not often that all timer comes into the discussion. Anyone who is pretending that they aren't rooting for an all timer is fooling exactly no one. But I hope everyone understands the uncertainty at this lead time.

Yeah, And its more understanding what it takes to get an all timer, Its not like they grow on trees in the backyard so those expectations should be in check then in the forefront.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My bad for saying you whole post.  Point is, no one is spiking.  It's a model thread.  We discuss.  We enjoy/despise what the models show.  Some people are emotionally invested, i say most are not.

doesn't come across that rational to be blunt. 

when someone cites a very real and objective reason not to really take the x,y,z model too seriously, and immediately it ignites a series of response that attempt to erode value off the veracity of that content ... okay. 

that's not how to run a rational perspective on matters - sorry.  it just ain't. 

but, it's all good (or bad) whatever.  people are going to do what they do, regardless - 

but what i said still is true, the wave length is too long between this thing and the ridge in the west, and that may be both why the Euro is not phase proficiently, but also kind of getting the region lucky (for lack of better word).  

we'll see...  anomalies do happen. 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Tip, does this storm bear any similarities to the infamous debacle of 16 years ago? Personally, I would be pleased with a combo of 1888 and 1993.

I'm not sure to which 16-year old debacle you refer. --

firstly, I don't want to be cornered as the one that thinks this is going to be a debacle.  That has nothing to do with just wanting folks to maintain some vigil of responsible expectations in matters. 

i've seen more convincing than this day 4/5 set ups fail to materialize ...  which as is set up as the euro shows, needs a dash of luck to work out just like that.  i think anyone sane would employ that caution. 

but, should the euro work out - hey man.  rock on! 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

doesn't come across that rational to be blunt. 

when someone cites a very real and objective reason not to really take the x,y,z model too seriously, and immediately it ignites a series of response that attempt to erode value off the veracity of that content ... okay. 

that's not how to run a rational perspective on matters - sorry.  it just ain't. 

but, it's all good (or bad) whatever.  people are going to do what they do, regardless - 

but what i said still is true, the wave length is too long between this thing and the ridge in the west, and that may be both why the Euro is not phase proficiently, but also kind of getting the region lucky (for lack of better word).  

we'll see...  anomalies do happen. 

Link us up to those series of responses. I for one addressed a factual inaccuracy in your post, and quietly contemplated the rest of it. If you are looking for pats on the back for suggesting [valid] ways for this to not produce snow for posters in this subforum, then it's all on you for being clueless about where you are posting. Go start your own board, no weenies allowed. See how well it does.

[Ginx snewx]

We full moon goon, tides AN Tues

[The 4 Seasons]

I can't remember there was categorical pops at 80% this far out for a snowstorm, pretty impressive on the confidence. But clearly someone made an error with snowfall accumulation "Little or no snow accumulation"

[The 4 Seasons]

Good read..

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A significant coastal storm is forecast to impact the area
Monday night into Tuesday night. Arctic High pressure moves
over the region for Monday, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
below normal, with highs only around freezing. This arctic high
will be a very important ingredient for the upcoming
significant coastal storm with some cold air to support snow.

The high begins to retreat late Monday as an upper level trough
ejects from the Plains states and dives south, phasing with a
weak trough over the Gulf states. This will induce a surface low
off the Southeast US coast Monday night. The low will then head
northeast, bringing snow to the area Monday night


There is still a great deal of uncertainty as the energy associated
with this system is still over the Northern Pacific Ocean and
is largely unsampled by any upper air data until it makes its
way onshore over the Pacific Northwest Saturday into Sunday. The
12z ECMWF still tracks the low just west of the 40N/70W
benchmark, while the 12Z GFS is much farther west. The 12Z
Canadian is similar to the ECMWF. There is run to run
consistency with the models in regards to their respective solutions.
Many of the ensemble means keep the surface low offshore, and
very close to the benchmark. Given the large uncertainty with
the operational models and ensemble solution, only made some
minor changes to the previous forecast, introducing a mix of
rain and snow for eastern sections, mainly across Long Island,
as even the ECMWF, with its farther east track, introduces some
warm air to the region, especially given the warm ocean waters.
However, significant snow accumulations are possible, even along
the coast, before and after any transition to the wintry mix.
There could even be some ice pellets that may mix in from time
to time, but still too early to tell.


Also, given how quickly  this storm is forecast to intensify
offshore, would not be surprised if there were to be some
thunder snow observed across the entire CWA, much like the
blizzard early February.

Finally, winds will also be very strong. As previously
mentioned, quick intensification of the storm offshore will lead
to a large pressure gradient. 1000 mb winds with the 12Z GFS of
40 kt to 45 kt, while the ECMWF shows 35 kt to 40 kt. Current
thinking of generally 40 mph for Long Island, but would not be
surprised to see a gust to 50 mph, especially across eastern
Long Island.

High pressure builds in thereafter. However, there is a low
chance that light snow showers lingers for Wednesday into
Thursday morning as the upper low in the ECMWF swings through,
which would mean some light accumulations could continue through
the period.

Well below normal temperatures expected through the week.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Link us up to those series of responses. I for one addressed a factual inaccuracy in your post, and quietly contemplated the rest of it. If you are looking for pats on the back for suggesting [valid] ways for this to not produce snow for posters in this subforum, then it's all on you for being clueless about where you are posting. Go start your own board, no weenies allowed. See how well it does.

No...i'm not looking for any of this sort of confrontational sh*t 

the point of what was talking about is entirely clad - whether the storm starts day 5.5 or 4.5 is irrelevant because it all still applies. 

 

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Can someone post that eps ens members map but a frame earlier, for those outside of Boston metro? thanks. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just let me know when Walt Drag posts his AFD 

[The 4 Seasons]

18Z NAM in clown range looks crazy amped, more so than the GFS, probably take that low over the LHV

[JC-CT]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

No...i'm not looking for any of this sort of confrontational sh*t 

the point of what was talking about is entirely clad - whether the storm starts day 5.5 or 4.5 is irrelevant because it all still applies. 

 

 

 

Fair enough, let's move on. I agree that the euro threads a specific needle of racing the shortwave out ahead in order to counteract the trough being west. The question is, is it right? I don't know. It could be. Or not.

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Good read..

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 There is run to run consistency with the models in regards to their respective solutions.

Yes, and based on this, it will be interesting to see which model(s) caves to the other(s).  I'll go with them caving to the Euro.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

18Z NAM in clown range looks crazy amped, more so than the GFS, probably take that low over the LHV

It just feels good to get this inside 84hr for modeling purposes. Though, expect to have many meltdowns and high fives 4x a day now when the first piece runs. 

[PineHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Link us up to those series of responses. I for one addressed a factual inaccuracy in your post, and quietly contemplated the rest of it. If you are looking for pats on the back for suggesting [valid] ways for this to not produce snow for posters in this subforum, then it's all on you for being clueless about where you are posting. Go start your own board, no weenies allowed. See how well it does.

I usually keep my mouth shut  as I can't read models etc but had to chime in with a 'thumbs up' in response to this post. I'd miss reading your analysis to threats Typhoon Tip but man, lately, you have really come across as condescending and frankly, annoying. Lighten up! If the as depicted doesn't come to fruition then life goes on and all the snow/storm lovers in here know that.

[40/70 Benchmark]