TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: First flakes fall in CT by hour 96. Day 4. That is 20% And as Bob noted... key interactions are happening by about day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: And as Bob noted... key interactions are happening by about day 3. Well they always do. So it's a matter of apples to apples. So I'm always timing from the start of the storm. Other people may do it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: First flakes fall in CT by hour 96. Day 4. That is 20% Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Yes Someday he will pay for Euro access and it will change his life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Someday he will pay for Euro access and it will change his life. For the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 nyc forum should read Tip's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 trust me - there's time to f this up. yes there is - not arguable. that's a complex handling aloft, with a LOT of time left to handle it. i mean, what's ur argument? "NO - it's time to be excited" ... ? okay. go with it - you may or may not parlay well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: trust me - there's time to f this up. yes there is - not arguable. that's a complex handling aloft, with a LOT of time left to handle it. i mean, what's ur argument? "NO - it's time to be excited" ... ? okay. go with it - you may or may not parlay well. Relax. Yeah there is time to f it up. But we are also STARTING to enter the euro's wheelhouse. At least of lore. I'm not spiking footballs. I said my closet fear was a hugger a day ago. We wait and watch and have some fun with it. Always appreciate your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS gets pretty cold this month. Torch fail. Will we social media retractions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: trust me - there's time to f this up. yes there is - not arguable. that's a complex handling aloft, with a LOT of time left to handle it. i mean, what's ur argument? "NO - it's time to be excited" ... ? okay. go with it - you may or may not parlay well. You're whole post seemed to be centered upon this storm being 5+ days out which is not the same as day 3/4 which is where its at. Huge difference in model scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Relax. Yeah there is time to f it up. But we are also STARTING to enter the euro's wheelhouse. At least of lore. I'm not spiking footballs. I said my closet fear was a hugger a day ago. We wait and watch and have some fun with it. Always appreciate your thoughts. haha... right. no, it's not me that needs to relax - nice. that's point so you turn it around - classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: First flakes fall in CT by hour 96. Day 4. That is 20% Somewhere a butterfly is flapping its wings...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: trust me - there's time to f this up. yes there is - not arguable. that's a complex handling aloft, with a LOT of time left to handle it. i mean, what's ur argument? "NO - it's time to be excited" ... ? okay. go with it - you may or may not parlay well. Agree- I wouldn't want to see a meltdown like what happened in the NYC thread in Jan 2015 after the Euro blizzard bust there within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 looks like there is a little bit of a tighter clustering on the western side of the ensemble mean position on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Agree- I wouldn't want to see a meltdown like what happened in the NYC thread in Jan 2015 after the Euro blizzard bust there. Emotionally invested people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: You're whole post seemed to be centered upon this storm being 5+ days out which is not the same as day 3/4 which is where its at. Huge difference in model scores. what doesn "whole post" mean - no Bob, i corrected that. beside, 4.5 before that wave interaction is handled ...if at all, where at our lat/lon as a Met, that should matter. what's ur point. No, it's okay to spike now? i'm not saying not to enjoy the euro solution - or any for that matter. have fun, all i set out to do is set the ground work for recovery if the earth ends up scorched over it. not allowed to do that i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: looks like there is a little bit of a tighter clustering on the western side of the ensemble mean position on the EPS. Only looks like one member going to England on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Only looks like one member going to England on this run And only one crv runner. The 1000mb lows in NYS are going to be the northern stream low from failed phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: And only one crv runner. The 1000mb lows in NYS are going to be the northern stream low from failed phases Yes, That's a nice tight cluster with a lot of left leaners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: what doesn "whole post" mean - no Bob, i corrected that. beside, 4.5 before that wave interaction is handled ...if at all, where at our lat/lon as a Met, that should matter. what's ur point. No, it's okay to spike now? i'm not saying not to enjoy the euro solution - or any for that matter. have fun, all i set out to do is set the ground work for recovery if the earth ends up scorched over it. not allowed to do that i guess My bad for saying you whole post. Point is, no one is spiking. It's a model thread. We discuss. We enjoy/despise what the models show. Some people are emotionally invested, i say most are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Only looks like one member going to England on this run And one just S of Buffalo, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That EPS SLP clustering is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: And only one crv runner. The 1000mb lows in NYS are going to be the northern stream low from failed phases I'm pretty surprised there's just one huge inland runner out of that many members...you'd figure out of all the perturbations that you'd see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: looks like there is a little bit of a tighter clustering on the western side of the ensemble mean position on the EPS. Geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Zeus will put that banana to good use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: looks like there is a little bit of a tighter clustering on the western side of the ensemble mean position on the EPS. That is just gorgeous. I put much more weight on that than the op right now. Good tight clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lot more on the left then the right if your counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Also impressively low pressure given the regime of high pressure in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tip, does this storm bear any similarities to the infamous debacle of 16 years ago? Personally, I would be pleased with a combo of 1888 and 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Besides Hurricane Sandy...I don't particularly remember when a model run 4.5 days out nailed the intensity and track of a storm. Yes, it's quite entertaining to look at all these maps coming out...but like Tip, I'm in the wait and see camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.