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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Which the GFS is notoriously bad with. Just sayin

A lot of that we won't know until it's occurring unfortunately. But a big enough convective blob would pump up heights ahead and lend itself towards a more westerly track, but that's not entirely why the GFS is so far west right now. It clearly phases more.

Not sure if this has changed significantly over the years, but the Ukie was actually one of the best at avoiding convective contamination.

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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lets go with the zoomed in version for sh its and giggles

 

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_boston_25.png

I'm on the east side of ORH so looks like 30+ but really ticked off its not like the 40 just south of BOS...Stop stealing my snow! Will be a crazy situation if this verifies. But wouldn't south coastal areas be affected by lower ratios and mixing? Or, is this like a mid January cold storm type situation? And yeah, I know its the Kuchera, etc. etc.  but its sort of like getting high... rational faculties don't function well

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6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

I'm on the east side of ORH so looks like 30+ but really ticked off its not like the 40 just south of BOS...Stop stealing my snow! Will be a crazy situation if this verifies. But wouldn't south coastal areas be affected by lower ratios and mixing? Or, is this like a mid January cold storm type situation? And yeah, I know its the Kuchera, etc. etc.  but its sort of like getting high... rational faculties don't function well

Don't think there would be much mixing on that Euro run, That low at the surface is tracking east of the cape, But those snow amounts are not happening.

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