Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I tell ya this I wish I was sking today, exactly my kind of March day, full sun little wind temps in the 30s low dews keeping it fast and firm. The day trippers are onto baseball season, can't blame them, but if they only knew how sweet it is in March with no crowds mid week and high sun. Now this weekend with that biting cold would suck but like this weekend, couple of days and its back to basic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: From your standpoint though yes, if you have a vacation planned later in the month then yeah you are all for preservation and icebox for a couple weeks lol. But for the majority of regular skiers, even the diehards, they are over it when you are talking highs below zero in the higher elevations. I'm sure a poll right now locally would yield very little support for brutal cold lol. They voted with their feet last weekend by not coming out lol. Luckily the bus groups still show up haha. This is how we do a great March, tons of cold air sitting in Canada , major amounts of precip in the forecast. Just give us the cold it will snow. of course everyone wants feet of powder, bluebird sky and temps in the 30s, who wouldn't but paying now with cold has many rewards down the spring line for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 GFS with a 3 dog night too this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Erics in Kevs camp Eric FisherVerified account @ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago More Models have the Sunday storm somewhat suppressed for now, but IMO a correction north is a good likelihood. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Erics in Kevs camp Eric FisherVerified account @ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago More Models have the Sunday storm somewhat suppressed for now, but IMO a correction north is a good likelihood. We'll see Inevitable. Won't start till Wed 12z runs. Until then more anger and cocked posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh I totally get it. It's just easier to rain than it is snow...even if you don't see anything from the synoptic storm there's always the cold FROPA rain band that moves through even if the low went over MSP two days ago. I think you're on the right track. In statistics, this is why researchers need to determine prior probability distribution when evaluating statistical modeling. Imagine that I live in a place where it is 10 times more likely to rain than snow on any particular day. When doing long-term forecasting, where skill is relatively low, a model is going to be "right" more frequently when it predicts rain 10 days in the future than when it predicts snow, just because it's climatologically more likely to rain than snow on any given day. I haven't looked into the data, but I'm confident that in most of SNE, it's more likely to rain than snow on the vast majority of days, especially early/late in the DJFM period. As a consequence, it may seem that models are more often "right" when they show rain, even when they have no greater skill at predicting rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 As a follow up, this is also why blockbuster storms and very anomalous events are more likely to show up in the long range. In the short range, models are quite skillful, so the range of forecasted events is going to more closely mirror the probabilities of the events actually happening, so forecasted anomalous events will be rare, because they are rare in real life. In the long range, models are not skillful, so anomalous events can and are forecast with much greater frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 What a disaster. I'm not sure negative NAO can't force a stormsouth of NE in March... Clipper is gone, everything else up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: skiers are not complaining one bit Wind keeps me off the hill. I will gladly ski in sub zero temps if the wind is still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Wind keeps me off the hill. I will gladly ski in sub zero temps if the wind is still Its All about the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Erics in Kevs camp Eric FisherVerified account @ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago More Models have the Sunday storm somewhat suppressed for now, but IMO a correction north is a good likelihood. We'll see I totally agree we will see anorth trend...the question is, is it enough? Its modeled so far south you have to assume it comes north. Is it enough so DC's virga becomes NYC's virga? Or is it enough to get some light snow into the south of the pike regions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: I'll admit we had a pretty poor showing last weekend despite a couple inches of snow and then sunshine for an early March weekend. Had it been sunny and 40F we probably would've run out of parking. Skiers want pow or spring corn right now. That's what will drive business...sunny mild Saturdays will do best business wise. It is bad for business at this point...people are over it. We had -50F wind chills both Sat/Sun at the summit. What really kills it are the cold headlines like Wind Chill Warnings and such. The local news makes it seem like you'll die if you go outside, but I'll be honest it did suck to have it that cold. You put up with it mid-winter but in March peeps are like fuk it I'll do something else. Jerry's got a point there. Another weekend of it and I bet Resorts are empty. There's only so much snow that'll be made and I bet by next weekend you won't see much snowmaking. No one needs -30C at 850 right now. Probably should prep for another poor one this weekend as well then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Its All about the wind That made skiing at Mount Snow uncomfortable yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Man, if those weekend temperatures verified it's going to cause some problems for fruit trees etc. I'll postpone my Maine ski trip again if it looks to be like last Saturday. No need to frostbite the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Further south she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The 0z gfs looks great for Virginia beach. Pros and cons of a -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 I have a feeling we will end up getting one decent snowfall event from the 11-18th, just one though. Never really liked march from the beginning, or this whole winter season matter of fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: I have a feeling we will end up getting one decent snowfall event from the 11-18th, just one though. Never really liked march from the beginning, or this whole winter season matter of fact Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro backed off the brutal cold a bit..Probably it's first step in eventually bringing Sunday storm north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro backed off the brutal cold a bit..Probably it's first step in eventually bringing Sunday storm north She gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She gone. Puff puff pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She gone. But storms can't be supressed in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But storms can't be supressed in March! See March 2014 and even 2015. With a +NAO no less. Hopefully the ensemble signal on Tuesday is worthwhile. Probably best look yet out of any of these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hopefully that Tuesday threat can get inside 5 days. Would be a shame to whiff on this pattern. It is a favorable setup. We still may not be done after that though. Could warm for a time around 17-19th but there remains decent cold to north and trough wants to build back into the area. But thats a lot more speculation compared to the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: She gone. Disagree on that one, especially for SNE. The modeling over the eastern CONUS still resembles -NAO/-AO, and we will have neither, come tomorrow. I think a northern correction is in order for both the clipper and the subsequent wave, which I think has the real potential to evolve into a more SWFE for SNE. Low confidence obviously, due to lack of guidance support --but we should begin seeing a trend with this deep Arctic cold spreading more eastward over the N Atlantic rather than southeastward with these teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Disagree on that one, especially for SNE. The modeling over the eastern CONUS still resembles -NAO/-AO, and we will have neither, come tomorrow. I think a northern correction is in order for both the clipper and the subsequent wave, which I think has the real potential to evolve into a more SWFE for SNE. Low confidence obviously, due to lack of guidance support --but we should be seeing and trend with this deep Arctic cold spreading more eastward over the N Atlantic rather than southeastward with these teleconnections. well if your right,and the next event makes it up a bit, will that cause a lost on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Rain for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, 512high said: well if your right,and the next event makes it up a bit, will that cause a lost on Tuesday? First wave is weak and fast; therefore will do little to disrupt the barocolinic zone behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 It's possible we could a little light snow from the clipper, but I was talking more about Sunday. I just think the flow is too fast and just not enough phasing and amplification to bring that all the way up north for a full-fledged snowstorm in southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Strong signs now that Erin goes braless St Pattys weekend with big surge of warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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