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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean this about settles it, we're effed as far as slowing the hype train down on social media.

We were discussing this morning, but our winter storm watches are essentially useless now. Who hasn't heard we're probably getting snow Tuesday by now?

Think skiing is good for me week of the 20th or should I heed the Morch 12 calls?

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean this about settles it, we're effed as far as slowing the hype train down on social media.

We were discussing this morning, but our winter storm watches are essentially useless now. Who hasn't heard we're probably getting snow Tuesday by now?

The Northwoods hermit?

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Coincidentally, we are coming up on the anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1888 (March 12-14).  Though the pattern is different (antecedent cold air in this system, arctic air moving in for the 1888 system), and the axis of heaviest snows is further east with this, if the Euro verifies, this could be one of the most prolific March storms in history for some.  Hype aside, with 4 days to go time, anything can still happen.

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nope, that's Jan 2005.

Hope not.  Biggest snowfall I had that month was 3.2".  Winter began that year with the 21" thundersnow event on Feb. 10-11.

 

Guess we know where NCforecaster will be. 

He'd better get there before the storm gets cranking.  Can't imagine driving on the Cape with 3"/hr and 60 kt gusts.

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this euro run doesn't phase really at all.. 

it just happens to be spatially coincidental with the passage of the southerly wave, but that thing entirely outpaces the N stream.

ironically, this may be the best hope at reclaiming a wintry solution out of this thing, because a purer phase would likely bring surface wave and attended thickness tapestry up the Hudson and you're over to rain. 

Fascinating... after all the consternation, who'd have thunk - 

One thing I am noticing is that the wester ridge is too far west on recent runs. It may be why the more phased solutions are west.  More phased doens't HAVE to mean west, but, the spatial temporal aspects of the total synoptic evolution have the western N/A ridge axis a bit too far west and so ...when/if the northern stream does tuck in and try to subsume (on the more phased versions) the coil-up axis (if you will) ends up closer to 85 W as opposed to 75 W where is ideal.  .

In other words, too far west has some wave spacing arguments here. 

But much to the delight of the local users... the Euro skirts by that wave issues by not phasing or doin so far less proficienlty. 

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