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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's gonna be almost impossible for the interior to get wet snow in this storm with this airmass...I suppose if the sfc low goes nuclear over like NYC or LI sound, it could transition to a 31F paste before it rains/dryslots, but more likely, an amped up solution will be a cold powdery snow inland before it changes to a mid-20s sleet and a dryslot.

Yeah and then we'd see a fierce backlash back to snow as the tail comes east

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd like it to be right, but the NAVGEM doesn't increase my confidence....just a comment.

Just like I commented that the UK looked just like the 00z GFS Control run.

All fun man, I get it. Back of my mind I am willing a 50/50 euro/gfs bi-racial baby to labor. 

Oh, and before anyone who doesnt know me reads this and thinks something. I'm white and my wife is black, got a 11 month old boy so eat this :weenie: before it gets out of hand. 

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54 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

You're conflating two very distinct things.

The "butterfly effect" relates to the sensitivities of certain nonlinear dynamical systems to very small perturbations in their subsequent evolution. The degree to which the solutions of any given dynamical system are sensitive to small perturbations, is largely what chaos theory is about. I'm thinking your comment about there being chaos in the atmosphere most likely fits with the idea that the current solutions are really sensitive to small perturbations. It's purely a deterministic thing, though.

"Future outcomes [not] determined yet" goes back to the basic question of whether God does indeed play dice with the universe, and would seem to be independent of the amount of "chaos" present. Either he does or he doesn't. Current answer unknown, at least by me.

It goes back to superdeterminism and quantum mechanics- some of our greatest minds have been trying to figure it out.

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53 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It had absolutely nothing to do with religion. It was about whether me going outside and flapping my arms to the east will help.

Also, it was a joke.

I don't think he meant it that way.  He was paraphrasing something Einstein once said.

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51 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said:

My joke meter must be off, sorry about that.

Honestly, religion was not on my mind when I penned that. I was thinking more of Hawking's famous essay on quantum mechanics and black holes

http://www.hawking.org.uk/does-god-play-dice.html

 

Good one, Hawking himself was recalling something Einstein once said.  Superdeterminism is a hot topic in physics today and the idea if everything that ever happened or will happen was set at the Big Bang (which can actually be described as the interior of a black hole).  Personally I don't think so, but superdeterminism would fix quite a few paradoxes.

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