JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I've always wondered at what point there is enough chaos in the atmosphere so that it isn't just that models can't get it right, but it is that the future outcome hasn't even been determined yet. I never believed a butterfly's flapping wings did anything. But what about a plane? North Korean missile launch? A forest fire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 lol some of you on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z GFS + 12z GGEM = 0z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Everyone assumes if I like the look then they are all screwed. The GFS run just dropped a foot of snow over the entire northeastern United States, lol. Anything fairly substantial to get the natural terrain going again in So. Vermont works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS mean is tucky tucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 36 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Wife said I look like our pug yesterday. Thought it was a cute remark. Is this you?: 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We don't get real snowstorms so we need to live vicariously through model runs. Everyone hates when I start posting . Like hates it, lol. You guys already know how this plays out so I'm not sure why you even look at the models ;). You recently had one of my favorite recent meltdowns: Quote powderfreak replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England True but we know how these play out already...not even worth the bandwidth of the maps. Gradient around Dendrite to Hippy. Crushing blow BOS to TOL. Rinse and repeat for the next decade ;). Wednesday at 01:47 PM 1,547 replies The guy who had 90" at the stake a few weeks ago not only declared this winter dead but the next 10 winters! I must say I like how this is playing out. Best case scenario I get a season's best dumping. Worst case scenario my driveway doesn't end up a mess. In case people missed yesterday post referenced the page before see below. I would add it to my signature but it is already long enough.: On 3/9/2017 at 11:37 AM, ORH_wxman said: Quote Def not DXR...we know the drill. The Euro will have a run or two where it totally goes nuclear and jackpots like W CT up to ALB and everyone back east will panic about another boxing day while powderfreak's post count triples...then it will come back east...Tauntonblizzard will say it looks like garbage the entire time citing the worst model of each suite while ignoring the good runs....Ray will keep talking about how the best banding will be just SE of him and just NW him while he sucks on exhaust, and then complains his way to 17"...moneypitmike will keep pretending he won't get more than a few inches even though every model gives an inch of QPF out to W MA...Jerry will pretend he never posted he was ready for winter to end at the end of February when it was 70F and talk about how this reminds him of March 1956....while tamarack mentions 1956 in NNJ and then makes a reference to a storm that overperformed in March 1984 while he was in Fort Kent, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seems pretty simple. Phase is a hugger, no phase is exiting stage right and likely clocking ENE only? That seems to be it. Pretty much, and I'm about to write off a whiff. So basically hugger or something east of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GEFS and close to the op. Pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Won't take much of a shift east for this to get get all of us though, just sucks to be right under the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seems pretty simple. Phase is a hugger, no phase is exiting stage right and likely clocking ENE only? That seems to be it. Correct, I would go 2-18" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: GEFS and close to the op. Pretty similar. A little east of the OP. There are some deep members in there east of the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Likewise, CMC ensembles are west of the OP. In fact, almost all of them are. I'd discount the CMC OP solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: A little east of the OP. There are some deep members in there east of the cape. A track near the elbow would be good. Give the interior their fake snow and the east man snow. Win/Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty much, and I'm about to write off a whiff. So basically hugger or something east of the Cape. Hugger all the way to Maine coast or hugger then inland over LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, klw said: Is this you?: You recently had one of my favorite recent meltdowns: The guy who had 90" at the stake a few weeks ago not only declared this winter dead but the next 10 winters! I must say I like how this is playing out. Best case scenario I get a season's best dumping. Worst case scenario my driveway doesn't end up a mess. In case people missed yesterday post referenced the page before see below. I would add it to my signature but it is already long enough.: Def not DXR...we know the drill. The Euro will have a run or two where it totally goes nuclear and jackpots like W CT up to ALB and everyone back east will panic about another boxing day while powderfreak's post count triples...then it will come back east...Tauntonblizzard will say it looks like garbage the entire time citing the worst model of each suite while ignoring the good runs....Ray will keep talking about how the best banding will be just SE of him and just NW him while he sucks on exhaust, and then complains his way to 17"...moneypitmike will keep pretending he won't get more than a few inches even though every model gives an inch of QPF out to W MA...Jerry will pretend he never posted he was ready for winter to end at the end of February when it was 70F and talk about how this reminds him of March 1956....while tamarack mentions 1956 in NNJ and then makes a reference to a storm that overperformed in March 1984 while he was in Fort Kent, ME. Wait.... I thought it was illegal to make a profit on someone's picture without their permission! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Elbow track would be awseome, Sorry james. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A track near the elbow would be good. Give the interior their fake snow and the east man snow. Win/Win. We would all take that. And those that wouldn't, would only have 5 posts to complain about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 That wouldn't be hugger, That would be an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'm pretty sure this is my storm. You can all battle over east vs west the next few days and I'll drop back in this weekend to gobble it up. k thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I'm pretty sure this is my storm. You can all battle over east vs west the next few days and I'll drop back in this weekend to gobble it up. k thx Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I must be too tired to follow this thread today. It's a scraper It's going over Albany It's giving everyone at least a foot It's a HECS It's nothin for no one. Guess I forgot what a storm thread looked like during the great warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanInWayland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I've always wondered at what point there is enough chaos in the atmosphere so that it isn't just that models can't get it right, but it is that the future outcome hasn't even been determined yet. I never believed a butterfly's flapping wings did anything. But what about a plane? North Korean missile launch? A forest fire? You're conflating two very distinct things. The "butterfly effect" relates to the sensitivities of certain nonlinear dynamical systems to very small perturbations in their subsequent evolution. The degree to which the solutions of any given dynamical system are sensitive to small perturbations, is largely what chaos theory is about. I'm thinking your comment about there being chaos in the atmosphere most likely fits with the idea that the current solutions are really sensitive to small perturbations. It's purely a deterministic thing, though. "Future outcomes [not] determined yet" goes back to the basic question of whether God does indeed play dice with the universe, and would seem to be independent of the amount of "chaos" present. Either he does or he doesn't. Current answer unknown, at least by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Elbow track would be awseome, Sorry james. Oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol some of you on here. So many already emotionally invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm pretty sure this is my storm. You can all battle over east vs west the next few days and I'll drop back in this weekend to gobble it up. k thx Strong nrly downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said: You're conflating two very distinct things. The "butterfly effect" relates to the sensitivities of certain nonlinear dynamical systems to very small perturbations in their subsequent evolution. The degree to which the solutions of any given dynamical system are sensitive to small perturbations, is largely what chaos theory is about. I'm thinking your comment about there being chaos in the atmosphere most likely fits with the idea that the current solutions are really sensitive to small perturbations. "Future outcomes [not] determined yet" goes back to the basic question of whether God does indeed play dice with the universe, and would seem to be independent of the amount of "chaos" present. Either he does or he doesn't. Current answer unknown, at least by me. It had absolutely nothing to do with religion. It was about whether me going outside and flapping my arms to the east will help. Also, it was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So many already emotionally invested. You can sense the tone by the post and the posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If EURO waivers, my confidence will. We've entered that middle range period where the models typically do wonky things. I won't worry unless the ensembles significantly degrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said: You're conflating two very distinct things. The "butterfly effect" relates to the sensitivities of certain nonlinear dynamical systems to very small perturbations in their subsequent evolution. The degree to which the solutions of any given dynamical system are sensitive to small perturbations, is largely what chaos theory is about. I'm thinking your comment about there being chaos in the atmosphere most likely fits with the idea that the current solutions are really sensitive to small perturbations. It's purely a deterministic thing, though. "Future outcomes [not] determined yet" goes back to the basic question of whether God does indeed play dice with the universe, and would seem to be independent of the amount of "chaos" present. Either he does or he doesn't. Current answer unknown, at least by me. Have a beer. It's Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm pretty sure this is my storm. You can all battle over east vs west the next few days and I'll drop back in this weekend to gobble it up. k thx Usually if your happy, I'm happy................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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