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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

And I was looking at 5h too.  As Scott said there was less phasing which argued for an eastern nudge which it did do.

I want want an east nudge dont get me wrong lol. At h5, looked like noise but I defer to him and you, the more experienced. All good. Many more runs to discuss and poke our eyeballs over. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enough with the cmc, throw that pos away. If euro keeps following it then it will be first time in my weenie life it scored a coup. If that happens, I will hang it above my bed as a reminder that a) I suck an b ) that I suck. You can weenie tag me until the next big one is on the table. 

Agree, currently cmc is only model with a scraper so toss it

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enough with the cmc, throw that pos away. If euro keeps following it then it will be first time in my weenie life it scored a coup. If that happens, I will hang it above my bed as a reminder that a) I suck an b ) that I suck. You can weenie tag me until the next big one is on the table. 

It actually scored the coup in the Jan 23-24 event this year. I def wouldn't follow it blindly, but it does socre a win every now and then.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we're losing the n stream, so hope it doesn't scrape...wagons east, maybe.

The irony is that the northern stream feature that models like is just north of the "southern" wave right now. But the models also send a piece of energy from up north of AK down into the mix too. So there are a lot of satellite estimated shortwaves going into the models right now, especially that North Pole one.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freak is getting so excited..locking it in for his area!

This is the part of my summary where his post count triples...we see a couple runs that run straight over SNE...and there's a few worried easterners mixed in. Then as the GFS caves back toward the Euro in the 70/30 compromise, we'll be back to Ray worrying about getting stuck between two bands.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is the part of my summary where his post count triples...we see a couple runs that run straight over SNE...and there's a few worried easterners mixed in. Then as the GFS caves back toward the Euro in the 70/30 compromise, we'll be back to Ray worrying about getting stuck between two bands.

We need Tblizz to start worrying. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is the part of my summary where his post count triples...we see a couple runs that run straight over SNE...and there's a few worried easterners mixed in. Then as the GFS caves back toward the Euro in the 70/30 compromise, we'll be back to Ray worrying about getting stuck between two bands.

We don't get real snowstorms so we need to live vicariously through model runs.

Everyone hates when I start posting :devilsmiley:.  Like hates it, lol.

You guys already know how this plays out so I'm not sure why you even look at the models ;).

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