Model Mayhem VI

[powderfreak]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe discounting is a strong word.. but it's certainly a very very low probability since that seems to be the latest rage

12z Euro Ensembles are even further south now...like D.C. is too far north for much on the Day 5-7 range.

I think it may be over-doing it but it's so far south there's bound to be some correction north.  

But the current trend is not New England's friend.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL...-NAO does not lead to suppression by itself.

The SE ridge is still there. It's not going south 

 

I would think most have been around long enough to know that look today is not a suppressed look and modeling should steadily correct north..probably starting Wednesday

If it's strong enough it does.   I guess it's cool that you are so confident...but to be honest you're just spouting off on something you can't possibly even be close to sure of at this point.  So at this stage, anything is still possible and on the table.   Suppression is a real possibility....let's hope it's not realized for this period.  

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles really like the Mar 14 deal....they are really suppressed for this weekend, but can't throw in the towel on that one this early. I don't think the clipper is coming back. It might just get put through the meat grinder like the one last week did.

Yeah pretty good signal for day 8-9 on the EPS.

[Whineminster]

this is how everything goes, looks great 10 days out or so, then as we get closer it becomes trash.  Just a few days ago the clipper looked like it could redevelop....now it's trash....yesterday, Sunday looked like a nice shot....now that's trash....now the 14th is looking good....wait a few more days, that'll be trash too. You know? 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah pretty good signal for day 8-9 on the EPS.

The problem is it's day 8-9 lol.    There are alot of day 8-9 systems that have had good signals.  But I get it..were in a model thread and that's what we do in here.  Hope the sunday chance comes back somewhat first.??

[ORH_wxman]

If people hate day 8-9 threats, then stop looking at them or ignore them...lol.

 

There's a reason we started a model thread...so people could post clown range threats.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If people hate day 8-9 threats, then stop looking at them or ignore them...lol.

 

There's a reason we started a model thread...so people could post clown range threats.

 

But.  But.  But...where's my forecast?

Cold and windy March.   Who needs it

[78Blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

this is how everything goes, looks great 10 days out or so, then as we get closer it becomes trash.  Just a few days ago the clipper looked like it could redevelop....now it's trash....yesterday, Sunday looked like a nice shot....now that's trash....now the 14th is looking good....wait a few more days, that'll be trash too. You know? 

But if it was for a soaking rainstorm 10 days out, it would verify, lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks are just venting when in normal times, they shouldn't be...  This level of frustration is a bit unique and for that, patience is blown.  

Nerves are are shot, and folks try and hide being p'ode.

Truth be told... day 8 anything has never been more than dreamscapes - even in the best of times there's issues with running models out that long, for an OCD crew of snow-contents.  

You could smell it in the tenor of the forum that folks are desperate and ready to latch onto anything lately, while maintaining some quasi-exterior that's only reminiscent of restraint.  

But, that all gets exposed when the Euro punches a +2 SD 850 temperatures up to Buffalo on day 10 after sand-bagging the region for snow in the coldest March air (D7 or 8) pretty much ever....  

Perfectly wrong -  

 

[Whineminster]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

But if it was for a soaking rainstorm 10 days out, it would verify, lol.

Lol, of course.  This is how it goes, it would be easier if I just accept it but I can't. 

 

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks are just venting when in normal times, they shouldn't be...  This level of frustration is a bit unique and for that, patience is blown is all.  

Well I think part of it is that us weenies get emotionally invested when models start pumping out nice solutions, but then rip it from our chest....but you Mets never seem to have any emotion.  We could get 1-day out from a 30" storm and have it phail, and you guys wouldn't even blink....except to analyze what happened, getting all sciency and stuff, while the rest of us have tears on our face.  It's like you Mets are made of stone or something, it's impressive.  Do they teach mental toughness in Met School?

[weathafella]

Ides of March storm-let's see if it holds long enough to warrant a thread by week's end.

[SnowHole413]

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lol, of course.  This is how it goes, it would be easier if I just accept it but I can't. 

 

Well I think part of it is that us weenies get emotionally invested when models start pumping out nice solutions, but then rip it from our chest....but you Mets never seem to have any emotion.  We could get 1-day out from a 30" storm and have it phail, and you guys wouldn't even blink....except to analyze what happened, getting all sciency and stuff, while the rest of us have tears on our face.  It's like you Mets are made of stone or something, it's impressive.  Do they teach mental toughness in Met School?

well its cause mets are afraid to be wrong, as a weenie, you have the right to become emotionally invested at your own interest. Especially after the blizzard of 2015, mets are a lot more conservative around here and local news stations

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

But.  But.  But...where's my forecast?

Cold and windy March.   Who needs it

skiers are not complaining one bit

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Lol, of course.  This is how it goes, it would be easier if I just accept it but I can't. 

 

Well I think part of it is that us weenies get emotionally invested when models start pumping out nice solutions, but then rip it from our chest....but you Mets never seem to have any emotion.  We could get 1-day out from a 30" storm and have it phail, and you guys wouldn't even blink....except to analyze what happened, getting all sciency and stuff, while the rest of us have tears on our face.  It's like you Mets are made of stone or something, it's impressive.  Do they teach mental toughness in Met School?

Guess you missed some epic Met melts over the years lol

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

well its cause mets are afraid to be wrong, as a weenie, you have the right to become emotionally invested at your own interest. Especially after the blizzard of 2015, mets are a lot more conservative around here and local news stations

Mets aren't afraid to be wrong, lol they just are more conservative past 3-4 days because being conservative is probably more correct 9/10 times, you guys....

[Damage In Tolland]

Whatever happens looks like shorts, and tube tops for St Patty's weekend

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It cracks me up that some just don't believe the Suppression idea.     I mean, we've seen March keep everything south just as lil as 3 years ago...where NJ and Central and SE PA on south of there, clean up in the snow department in March 2014.  While we had nothing but cold sunny days.   Its been in the back of my mind for a while now that things stay south and we get shut out-could easily happen.  

 

Be Careful what we wish for...here comes the -NAO and the suppression shows up like clock work.  Sure we are still way out...and things will change for certain.  IMO things should trend slowly north with these, but you can never rule out suppression in set ups like this, in fact it's foolish to do so.

March '14 was quite nice here in the foothills, with two foot-plus events and pack cresting at over 40".  Unfortunately for SNE/CNE, those storms came with enough warmth (during a very cold March) to spoil their p-type.  Had to be very frustrating, watching snow fall north in one storm and south in another.

[weathafella]

After the ballz cold I think we got a mondo bomb that brings everyone huge totals.  Then we hopefully melt it quick and get ready for baseball.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

skiers are not complaining one bit

That's bull.  A good friend who skis almost exclusively black felt last weekend was too cold to enjoy skiing.  10F higher would be healthier for resorts bottom line.  I remember going skiing in early March once on a Saturday with no one on the slopes because it was basically too cold to ski.  Temperatures were similar to last weekend.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever happens looks like shorts, and tube tops for St Patty's weekend

Where are you getting this?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

Where are you getting this?

Gibbs

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

After the ballz cold I think we got a mondo bomb that brings everyone huge totals.  Then we hopefully melt it quick and get ready for baseball.

But not too quick - though our pack is much diminished from 2 weeks ago, there's still a lot of water in it.  We dodged bullets in 2001 and 2008 when we had big packs heading into April, but the latter year was close.  The big rain came just after Western Maine snows were headed downriver, but right in time to cause a record flood farther north on the St. John.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That's bull.  A good friend who skis almost exclusively black felt last weekend was too cold to enjoy skiing.  10F higher would be healthier for resorts bottom line.  I remember going skiing in early March once on a Saturday with no one on the slopes because it was basically too cold to ski.  Temperatures were similar to last weekend.

I can see that but bottom line is ski areas are making snow, ski season is extended, with a couple of good dumps in the cards no one is complaining. FYI. I have skied in -40 plus wind chills and if properly covered while the sallies are in the lodge drinking their Cocoa its empty on the slopes it aoin't that bad. Now when wind holds happen that does suck but its winter, dress for it.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

March '14 was quite nice here in the foothills, with two foot-plus events and pack cresting at over 40".  Unfortunately for SNE/CNE, those storms came with enough warmth (during a very cold March) to spoil their p-type.  Had to be very frustrating, watching snow fall north in one storm and south in another.

Yes March 14 was pretty awesome up there. This was March 21st 2014

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can see that but bottom line is ski areas are making snow, ski season is extended, with a couple of good dumps in the cards no one is complaining. FYI. I have skied in -40 plus wind chills and if properly covered while the sallies are in the lodge drinking their Cocoa its empty on the slopes it aoin't that bad. Now when wind holds happen that does suck but its winter, dress for it.

I'll admit we had a pretty poor showing last weekend despite a couple inches of snow and then sunshine for an early March weekend.  Had it been sunny and 40F we probably would've run out of parking.  Skiers want pow or spring corn right now.  That's what will drive business...sunny mild Saturdays will do best business wise.

It is bad for business at this point...people are over it.  We had -50F wind chills both Sat/Sun at the summit.  What really kills it are the cold headlines like Wind Chill Warnings and such. The local news makes it seem like you'll die if you go outside, but I'll be honest it did suck to have it that cold.

You put up with it mid-winter but in March peeps are like fuk it I'll do something else.  

Jerry's got a point there.  Another weekend of it and I bet Resorts are empty.  There's only so much snow that'll be made and I bet by next weekend you won't see much snowmaking.  

No one needs -30C at 850 right now.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What sucks is the logic is dumb but the sensible weather outcome is correct lol.  That's what makes those statements more frustrating.

You can get a so called cutter with the low from Detroit to Albany and still get the same weather outcome. But with the snowstorm you have a 50 mile wide sweet spot. These clowns, are acting like the models only get cutters right and they don't get snow storms right or they are never modeled successfully.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I'll admit we had a pretty poor showing last weekend despite a couple inches of snow and then sunshine for an early March weekend.

It is bad for business at this point...people are over it.  We had -50F wind chills both Sat/Sun at the summit.  What really kills it are the cold headlines like Wind Chill Warnings and such. The local news makes it seem like you'll die if you go outside, but I'll be honest it did suck to have it that cold.

You put up with it mid-winter but in March peeps are like fuk it I'll do something else.  

Jerry's got a point there.  Another weekend of it and I bet Resorts are empty.  There's only so much snow that'll be made and I bet by next weekend you won't see much snowmaking.  

No one needs -30C at 850 right now.  

Empty resorts in March, perfect, not for you but for many of us lol. nature is going to provide plenty of its own snowmaking. Once that sun returns its empty resorts and tons of snow. 

[Modfan]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can see that but bottom line is ski areas are making snow, ski season is extended, with a couple of good dumps in the cards no one is complaining. FYI. I have skied in -40 plus wind chills and if properly covered while the sallies are in the lodge drinking their Cocoa its empty on the slopes it aoin't that bad. Now when wind holds happen that does suck but its winter, dress for it.

One of the worst times I had skiing was -15 at Canon, sheet of ice the first 50 yds off the lift; one if the best days was during a snow storm at Attitash, broke both bindings in 8" of powder!  Miss those days

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Empty resorts in March, perfect, not for you but for many of us lol. nature is going to provide plenty of its own snowmaking. Once that sun returns its empty resorts and tons of snow. 

From your standpoint though yes, if you have a vacation planned later in the month then yeah you are all for preservation and icebox for a couple weeks lol.  

But for the majority of regular skiers, even the diehards, they are over it when you are talking highs below zero in the higher elevations. I'm sure a poll right now locally would yield very little support for brutal cold lol.  

They voted with their feet last weekend by not coming out lol.

Luckily the bus groups still show up haha.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can get a so called cutter with the low from Detroit to Albany and still get the same weather outcome. But with the snowstorm you have a 50 mile wide sweet spot. These clowns, are acting like the models only get cutters right and they don't get snow storms right or they are never modeled successfully.

Oh I totally get it.  

It's just easier to rain than it is snow...even if you don't see anything from the synoptic storm there's always the cold FROPA rain band that moves through even if the low went over MSP two days ago.