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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I want it and have asked for it to be put in place.  You know how fast things move around here though.

Nice, maybe they are concerned the board will crash every time Don S posts.

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wonder why Ryan has not chimed in yet. Usually, by this time, he has one factor to get the CT weenies nervous about. 

I'm sure he's waiting and watching with nervous excitement.

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wonder why Ryan has not chimed in yet. Usually, by this time, he has one factor to get the CT weenies nervous about. 

In fact, he has his own weenie section on the nbc ct website.

http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Ryan-Hanrahan-Radar-First-Alert-Weather-NBC-Connecticut-Snow-Storms-Thunder-Tornado-Rain-Forecast-401554336.html

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO actually focuses on that lead shot wave that some though was spurious, and some were concerned that it would force things off shore...that now becomes the  main show on the 00z euro, and the n stream, which was the main show, is left behind.

This pushes the time up about 6 hrs Tuesday.

The GFS yesterday certainly had some vorticity creation, but the 00z Euro run looks solid from a physical stand point. There is a very trackable shortwave that tracks over Vancouver and dives towards the GoM before rounding the corner and coming north.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS kind of reminds me of Boxing Day. Euro is almost more of a Feb '13 evolution in how it sort of keeps that front runner seperate until late. Kind of weird when GFS is the western outlier.  

Euro had that flavor for sure. Big southern stream influence until late in the game when it doesn't stall but more of a head fake pause (when it feels the tug from the northern stream) before heading back on a NE path. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Yeah, like whether or not it snows.

Do you agree that there is more leeway than some of our other "thread the needle" storms?

Obviously if it tracks over buffalo then we are screwed. But there is some decent wiggle room.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Do you agree that there is more leeway than some of our other "thread the needle" storms?

Obviously if it tracks over buffalo then we are screwed. But there is some decent wiggle room.

There are obviously some things to like, for instance consistency in showing a storm in this window for several days now. It could be one of those strong signal events models sniff out early.

But it also wouldn't take much to get these twin shortwaves out of phase and maybe produce a lighter event followed by a strong fropa. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There are obviously some things to like, for instance consistency in showing a storm in this window for several days now. It could be one of those strong signal events models sniff out early.

But it also wouldn't take much to get these twin shortwaves out of phase and maybe produce a lighter event followed by a strong fropa. 

Agree, but then we are just talking about expectations. This one will have to work hard to not produce a plowable snowfall for at least some part of this subforum.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Agree, but then we are just talking about expectations. This one will have to work hard to not produce a plowable snowfall for at least some part of this subforum.

Aren't these pretty important right now? I would say a large portion of this forum isn't expecting a plowable snow, they are expecting a 1 to 2 foot snow.

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The antecedent airmass creates more wiggle room too...you can probably have a storm tucked over the cape and keep most areas snow...and even SE areas that may taint in such a track get slammed on the front end. It would be a lot harder to do that in a marginal airmass.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Aren't these pretty important right now? I would say a large portion of this forum isn't expecting a plowable snow, they are expecting a 1 to 2 foot snow.

I can guarantee plenty of people on the forum would probably be disappointed in 10-12 inches of snow from this. I definitely sense high expectations.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Aren't these pretty important right now? I would say a large portion of this forum isn't expecting a plowable snow, they are expecting a 1 to 2 foot snow.

Well shame on them for expecting it. However, the odds of it occurring are extremely elevated, so no reason not to get excited about the possibility. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Aren't these pretty important right now? I would say a large portion of this forum isn't expecting a plowable snow, they are expecting a 1 to 2 foot snow.

Isn't 1" a plowable snow? Most towns and cities plow for that. I think based on ensemble agreement , clustering, and agreement in a general sense. this has a higher than normal probability of producing something big. 

That said no-one is locking in feet yet....We can start doing that Sunday AM as it becomes certain

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I can guarantee plenty of people on the forum would probably be disappointed in 10-12 inches of snow from this. I definitely sense high expectations.

I've been saying for a couple days the likelihood for measurable snow is high, but he how much is a huge unknown right now. And I think people (some mets included) are forgetting that. 

It seems like a high confidence forecast because of the consistency, but in reality like none of the players on on the table (North America) yet. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn't 1" a plowable snow? Most towns and cities plow for that. I think based on ensemble agreement , clustering, and agreement in a general sense. this has a higher than normal probability of producing something big. 

Tat said no-one is locking in feet..We can start doing that Sunday AM 

Your own forecast office considers 3" plowable, but yes people will plow for just about any snow.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Isn't 1" a plowable snow? Most towns and cities plow for that. I think based on ensemble agreement , clustering, and agreement in a general sense. this has a higher than normal probability of producing something big. 

Tat said no-one is locking in feet..We can start doing that Sunday AM 

Almost all the DOTs I forecasted for over the years used 2 inches as plowing threshold.

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