40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: As depicted thermally nope. Think back to 2015 2011 you think those 40 and 30 plus amounts were with 10 to 1? I know our average is like 10 to 11 to 1 but that's dragged down with all the 6 to 1 8 to 1 normal . In 15 I had 55 inches of snow in Feb with 3.44 QPF In March 13 places that received 25 inches of snow had 1.7 of water. PF Hunchie Dendrite MPM live in the H7 deformation band in these setups. I can't recall any similar setups where the interior didn't get at minimum 12 to 13 to 1 and probably 15 to1, the DGZ and thermals as depicted on the GFS would yield the same. Obviously Kuchera are way overdone but when Bufkit gets closer we can get a good idea Sometimes it works out, sure.....but its never safe to assume those ratios until very close in, if at all. BUFKIT even blows it at close leads sometimes....everything needs to be perfect. As long as you admit Kuchera blows, we're good. I understand what you were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Definitely a few more "west" solutions on the individual GEFS members than 12z or 6z. Hopefully we see a slight shift back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sometimes it works out, sure.....but its never safe to assume those ratios until very close in, if at all. BUFKIT even blows it at close leads sometimes....everything needs to be perfect. As long as you admit Kuchera blows, we're good. I understand what you were saying. don't think they blow actually They can get way overdone but when you look at this and compare it with the GFS at the time it's within range of what I would expect. Another tool to discern max amounts despite less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS might be even more tucked. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 don't think they blow actually They can get way overdone but when you look at this and compare it with the GFS at the time it's within range of what I would expect. Another tool to discern max amounts despite less precip. They blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks a bit stronger and deeper through 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 GFS might be even more tucked. Yikes We may get saved by it tucking while the trof is easing east keeping it slow and strong as it lumbers up th coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 0z GFS, Going to be a couple tics west of the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Getting silly now. Some will fear the huggies wnd shat on themselves but the fact remains at d4, we have a potential all timer for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Its a bit deeper, but there is a bit more of a kicker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Mofo may blow its load. Too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Jfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 It's going way west but what a front ender! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Has not closed off yet at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Mofo may blow its load. Too early... Verbatim, that track definitely favors NJ and western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah..... this will be a congrats PF run... definitely gets rain into eastern portions of NE this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Could see this trend coming a mile away....hopefully it reverses some, but long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah..... this will be a congrats PF run... definitely gets rain into eastern portions of NE this run 5 GFS cycles in a row now that have trended further NW with the low. The trend is worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 From cape last run, to NYC this run. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 GFS cycles in a row now that have trended further NW with the low. The trend is worrisome agreed.... another shift NW with the current position and well be out of the game. Looks like a moderate front ended over to heavy rain verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 From cape last run, to NYC this run. Awful. It'll be over Syracuse by tomorrow afternoon. In all seriousness... the trend is not your friend right now... unless you are PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This run is Alb approved! Expecting a plethora of solutions evolving over the next few days, so I'm not gonna get too excited yet. Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What a frond end thump up this way, The fears of an earlier phase showed its head this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll say it..... this run sucked for eastern ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Thats like 12-18" here before any potential fight with other precip types. looks very 93ish track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'd rather we just rain here to be honest... several inches of slop followed by rain does nothing for me in mid march... this can keep pushing west if that's going to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What a frond end thump up this way, The fears of an earlier phase showed its head this run. Sounds like it would force me to grab my sled out of the shop if this run verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Sounds like it would force me to grab my sled out of the shop if this run verified. Oh it would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll say it..... this run sucked for eastern ma Yea....8", then rain here.....I'd rather nothing. I'm sure there are many twists ahead, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'd rather we just rain here to be honest... several inches of slop followed by rain does nothing for me in mid march... this can keep pushing west if that's going to be the case Maybe just assume that's the case and check out? See you next Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.