RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Huh? That place is a zoo and a circus stuffed into MSG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: As someone said on the NYC thread after seeing the 18z GFS, just remember Seattle was on the 1 yard line and threw an INT. to lose the Super Bowl. We aren't on the 1 yard line yet, but just saying. A game has an outcome human behavior effects. It seems pretty likely that there will be a big honker next week whether tainted or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Could someone theoretically program a weenie snow algorithm that takes the factors Scooter mentioned into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 20 hours ago, Enigma said: And that's what I don't agree with. I don't see this as noise. There were substantial changes at h5 which concern me. Point being...evolution of 18z and 00z h5 trough could not be more different. My suspicion is that this could* be the start of a trend towards a Canadian outcome. Rethink this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 The progressiveness of the overall flow will also be a hindrance to a ukmet track...you will need a ton of phasing to get a low over BOS or something. You're gonna have to let the models resolve the front running energy for a couple more cycles and how any changes in the upstream PAC interact with that. Gotta remember this thing is still 5 days out. There's a TON of time for shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I'll be in Boston next weekend, hopefully you get your snow so I can see the city with some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 You have to love the hype over at TWC with their claim of 130 million under a winter storm threat. FWIW, their analysis is showing the 12z Euro solution with a track just east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: That 1/11/11 is my best melt I think. Unless I'm confusing it with 1/26. Oh yes it was, epic melt an hour before you got smoked. I had an 8 per hour band crush me. I showed you guys pictures on my new IPAD at the ORH GTG when everyone was there including Tubes and Skier. I have pictures from that GTG, classic. Amy and DI, Phil, Scooter, Hunchie, Pickles, Will, TB,CT BLIZZ,Garth, Ray, Ryan, and that kid from NH who got banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: You have to love the hype over at TWC with their claim of 130 million under a winter storm threat. FWIW, their analysis is showing the 12z Euro solution with a track just east of the benchmark. That's the run i probably would not have focused on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: You have to love the hype over at TWC with their claim of 130 million under a winter storm threat. FWIW, their analysis is showing the 12z Euro solution with a track just east of the benchmark. Every solution is ominous for a large number of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I have no JP fantasy so I'm very content with my lat/lon for this one as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Amen. Says the guy who always has the highest ratios of any one on the board in this kind of setup. Ratio Queens forget the past. I remember this same conversation in 2015 with many here. How soon they forget the setups. Why do you think Savoy had 40 inches in 2011, wasn't 4 inches of water. I would say 10 to 1 on the coast and 15 to 20 to 1 100 miles from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It means a lot actually. You ain't jamming a low up the HRV with a beast mode high there. Doesn't work that way With a progressive 5H and beastly HP the best I see this is a Canal Cutter. I remember how 2011 kept redeveloping east along the coast. And if this triple phases it would dramatically reduce heights and those areas with ML issues would pound sleet. I would say the OTS late developer is our biggest worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Every solution is ominous for a large number of people. It's still a lot of hype for a day 5 storm potential. How soon they forget the famous Euro blizzard for NYC advertised within day 3 that never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It's still a lot of hype for a day 5 storm potential. How soon they forget the famous Euro blizzard for NYC advertised within day 3 that never materialized. Wait a minute-that was a 50 mile error which had a magnified effect. In the end it effected 10 million folks or more so naturally the error is magnified. Still-it was a huge storm for LI and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Wait a minute-that was a 50 mile error which had a magnified effect. In the end it effected 10 million folks or more so naturally the error is magnified. Still-it was a huge storm for LI and east. I was just pointing out the hype which wasn't taking into account those 50 mile errors which Harvey and others usually warn about. As the NYT said: "New York City was spared from the worst of a snowstorm that hit the Northeast early Tuesday, with the dire warnings that it could be one of the worst blizzards in the city’s history failing to materialize. At Central Park, the total snowfall for the storm was about 5.5 inches. This will most likely be one of the largest blizzards in the history of New York City, Mayor de Blasio had warned." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: I was just pointing out the hype which wasn't taking into account those 50 mile errors which Harvey and others usually warn about. As the NYT said: "New York City was spared from the worst of a snowstorm that hit the Northeast early Tuesday, with the dire warnings that it could be one of the worst blizzards in the city’s history failing to materialize. At Central Park, the total snowfall for the storm was about 5.5 inches. This will most likely be one of the largest blizzards in the history of New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio had warned." I thought NYC had 14 from that stationary deform band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought NYC had 14 from that stationary deform band Central Park had a much lower amount than outlying areas, at least according to the NYT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: Rethink this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can you imagine March 1993 nowadays then! being modeled some 11 days in advance with consistency ?? "It's still a lot of hype for an 11 day potential ..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Says the guy who always has the highest ratios of any one on the board in this kind of setup. Ratio Queens forget the past. I remember this same conversation in 2015 with many here. How soon they forget the setups. Why do you think Savoy had 40 inches in 2011, wasn't 4 inches of water. I would say 10 to 1 on the coast and 15 to 20 to 1 100 miles from the coast. They got under the H7 deformation, that is how...I just said that...elsewhere, its normally near 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Can you imagine March 1993 nowadays then! being modeled some 11 days in advance with consistency ?? "It's still a lot of hype for an 11 day potential ..." Sure, try hyping something 11 days out on here and see what kind of responses you get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The progressiveness of the overall flow will also be a hindrance to a ukmet track...you will need a ton of phasing to get a low over BOS or something. You're gonna have to let the models resolve the front running energy for a couple more cycles and how any changes in the upstream PAC interact with that. Gotta remember this thing is still 5 days out. There's a TON of time for shifts. Yeah could still whiff or go over ALB. That's a long time model wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah could still whiff or go over ALB. That's a long time model wise. I've got that spidey sense feeling this one is big and tucked. (coming from someone who is WNE jaded) PF approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I've got that spidey sense feeling this one is big and tucked. (coming from someone who is WNE jaded) PF approved. I have a spidey sense that everyone will enjoy this one. And it has nothing to do with all the models showing a huge storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'll be in Boston next weekend, hopefully you get your snow so I can see the city with some snow. Don't know if you've been there before but enjoy your time. I assume you are coming for the seafood expo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought NYC had 14 from that stationary deform band It was 9.5" for the total. Not sure where they got 5.5 from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It was 9.5" for the total. Not sure where they got 5.5 from Regardless, it was a massive bust. They say 50 miles but it was more when you include areas forecasted in wnj and even philly to get ku'd. Euro was on its own for that one so it was an all time terrible job by Upton. I will leave it that because their profession is not easy, but your paid to not dry hump one, albiet the "king", model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaroofer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I understand there is always a degree of "back and forth" going on here with opinions and modeling. Im just a laymen, and thus I admit Im not able to discern quite what or where we are with this "potential storm" early/mid next week. can someone just tell me, in casual terms, what the scenarios could be. I'm more concerned that my neck of the woods gets snow. Conway/north. Is it probable? more than likely? likely? maybe? or probably not? thanks a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They got under the H7 deformation, that is how...I just said that...elsewhere, its normally near 10:1. As depicted thermally nope. Think back to 2015 2011 you think those 40 and 30 plus amounts were with 10 to 1? I know our average is like 10 to 11 to 1 but that's dragged down with all the 6 to 1 8 to 1 normal . In 15 I had 55 inches of snow in Feb with 3.44 QPF In March 13 places that received 25 inches of snow had 1.7 of water. PF Hunchie Dendrite MPM live in the H7 deformation band in these setups. I can't recall any similar setups where the interior didn't get at minimum 12 to 13 to 1 and probably 15 to1, the DGZ and thermals as depicted on the GFS would yield the same. Obviously Kuchera are way overdone but when Bufkit gets closer we can get a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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