Model Mayhem VI

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

So are you saying the 18-24" it showed imby 12h ago ain't happening?  Well golly gee.

might be a good time for you to take a disney trip

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

might be a good time for you to take a disney trip

Paris in a little over a month. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

Its a different pattern with that block we have not seen this winter, just sayin, don't discount it.

Agree, not discounting it myself but I'm not buying the trends when this first started way north and has gone south a handful of runs in a row. It seems guidance doesnt initially pick up on the high then it does, but goes overboard. gfs can be very manic. Id like to see how the euro ticks this thing next 2 days. Also, yea, Wednesday 3pm sounds about the right time to get better feel for this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Supression is plausible. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree, not discounting it myself but I'm not buying the trends when this first started way north and has gone south a handful of runs in a row. It seems guidance doesnt initially pick up on the high then it does, but goes overboard. gfs can be very manic. Id like to see how the euro ticks this thing next 2 days. Also, yea, Wednesday 3pm sounds about the right time to get better feel for this. 

Manic? lol this is fu ckin epic, wtf

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah pretty easy...we'll just cash in on the next two systems like the GFS shows if we whiff on the first 3.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Manic? lol this is fu ckin epic, wtf

All of ours is after truncation. Awesome.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That may be the most weenie map I've ever seen.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The last 4 days of the GFS are funny

[Baroclinic Zone]

And a lot of that looks to be sleet looking at the surface maps.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dendrite said:

All of ours is after truncation. Awesome.

GFS is crack to a junkie and its on crack itself. GEFS however is as stout as its ever been all winter

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That may be the most weenie map I've ever seen.

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS are def really weenieish...they have like 4 storm threats on there even if you don't include the clipper which seems unlikely at this point.

[JC-CT]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But isn't the block elongated and not West based? I thought that also favored non - suppression . Just seems there's a lot going against a D.C. Event while Philly north sees cirrus.

Philly does just fine on the GFS.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

supression depression, but I'm not sold it ends up that far south. 

1 - it does not snow in Richmond in March

2 - it does not snow more than a foot in Rochmond in winter. 

Maybe not in a warming climate, but two of RIC's top 10 snowfalls came in March, most recently in 1980.  (The other was the 1962 gale that held most of the NJ coast's high tide records prior to Sandy.)

[CoastalWx]

Euro will be even further south it seems for Sunday.

[Hazey]

12 euro doesn't look like much for the Friday clipper but then that should be of no surprise.

[dryslot]

Suppressed south on the weekend deal on the 12z Euro, More so then the 0z run, Pretty flat.

[Cold Miser]

Drooling and laughing over maps 15 days out. lol.

There should be safeguards in place to keep weenies from posting that stuff on here. 

Would be funny if that verified though.  Worcester with almost 4 feet.

[Cold Miser]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

This far out?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We just have to wait until the FB met from VA barks for his area while dry humping the euro, then the north trend begins.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

This far out?

yes

[dryslot]

54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Put up for posterity and laughing stock, although I do remember a 33 inch Euro map in 2015, oh wait that verified lol

I remember that 7 day run up here a few weeks back,  Prior to that period, The Euro was spitting out 40"+ amounts about 7 days out and many laughed only to have it verify.................lol

[powderfreak]

Euro wayyyy south with everything through day 8.  More so than 00z.

Epic mid-Atlantic run for this time of year.

[Ginx snewx]

Suppression depression

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

I remember that 7 day run up here a few weeks back,  Prior to that period, The Euro was spitting out 40"+ amounts about 7 days out and many laughed only to have it verify.................lol

Difference between days 1-7 and days 8-16 though haha.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Difference between days 1-7 and days 8-16 though haha.

That's true, But the pattern looks very active, Quite sure we won't cash on all of them but the chance is there too.

[ORH_wxman]

SNE/CNE gets the day 8 system...maybe NNE can get the day 10 or 11 system.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Euro wayyyy south with everything through day 8.  More so than 00z.

Epic mid-Atlantic run for this time of year.

That's a pretty drastic run to run change at H5 on the Euro which tells me the models are struggling with the upcoming pattern so i would not place much stock in any scenario at this point outside of 3-4 days out.