RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Whatever, it is there. didnt mean to sweat the deets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ends up pedestrian verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's definitely SE of 18z....pretty clear toggling between the two runs doesnt look nearly as impressive as prior runs, and that has nothing to do with being pessimistic or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Trough was positive further east this run so SLP was east as well, Good spot for this one right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Kind of fails to tuck it in though. Surprised me....not as good as 18z. Trough was more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The end result is actually significantly less impressive than 18z... basically a glorified graze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surprised me....not as good as 18z. Trough was more progressive. Yea, h5 look was ideal early on then just vaporized east and never closed off over the BE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Everything I saw argued for less progressively.....maybe that lead SW being deeper affected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I think storm 2 down in the carolinas was ever so slightly more potent this run which impacted this potential event being more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surprised me....not as good as 18z. Trough was more progressive. There was way less phasing of energy this run from the PV lobe up in Hudson Bay vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The end result is actually significantly less impressive than 18z... basically a glorified graze Keep looking at precip and surface maps to determine outcomes, youve done very well this winter doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everything I saw argued for less progressively.....maybe that lead SW being deeper affected it. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Keep looking at precip and surface maps to determine outcomes, youve done very well this winter doing so. Well, he is right relative to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think storm 2 down in the carolinas was ever so slightly more potent this run which impacted this potential event being more east Stole the lead southern sw some huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think storm 2 down in the carolinas was ever so slightly more potent this run which impacted this potential event being more east Definitely something to keep an eye on... looks like that could be a big factor in the eventual evolution of the system in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 But Hazey is happy, congrats to him again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 CMC improved vs 12z but work needs to be done. Let's see if Euro can do what it usually does and hold run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10-15" of meh thru day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: CMC improved vs 12z but work needs to be done. Let's see if Euro can do what it usually does and hold run after run. Still too early for me to expect consistency in any detail, even from Euro...a graze is the same as a hit to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 gfs goes nuts on fri, stronger sunday for the se...then pulls the rug for the main event. Good times ahead but it wouldnt be a biggie without losing or grazing at around d5 now would it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I didn't catch it, but Will is right...PV doesn't phase in this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, he is right relative to this run. Right... all these features can look great and all, but if it doesn't produce, nobody will remember that. All anyone cares about is the end result.... and that was much worse this run and it's not really debatable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right... all these features can look great and all, but if it doesn't produce, nobody will remember that. All anyone cares about is the end result.... and that was much worse this run and it's not really debatable Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't catch it, but Will is right...PV doesn't phase in this time. If that piece phases in we'd have seen a monster with that trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range. I'd also argue that even the PV phasing doesn't matter THAT much...this was still a very good look synoptically in the upper levels....that would be a classic "take GFS QPF and shift it 50-100 miles west and increase it by 50%" type coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 We knew this set back would come at some point, and here it is. Can't be a perfect bomb every single run. The GFS is probably about to go into the dead zone/loose the system cycles. What will the Euro show?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still too early for me to expect consistency in any detail, even from Euro...a graze is the same as a hit to me at this point. I disagree. The evolution of h5 throughout today's guidance has been inconsistent (i.e.: broad neutral trough to high amplitude negative trough). There were substantial differences between 18z and 00z h5 trough orientations. QPF had been consistently high but for different reasons/outcomes. I am starting to suspect that system #2 could be stronger than progged, leading to a fish/cape only event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Enigma said: I disagree. The evolution of h5 throughout today's guidance has been inconsistent (i.e.: broad neutral trough to high amplitude negative trough). There were substantial differences between 18z and 00z h5 trough orientations. QPF had been consistently high but for different reasons/outcomes. I am starting to suspect that system #2 could be stronger than progged, leading to a fish/cape only event. So you say this, and then disagree with me that it's too early to expect consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: So you say this, and then disagree with me that it's too early to expect consistency? Ya, his reasoning is kind of an enigma....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, this run sucked, but the degree to which the PV phases is nothing to sweat at this range. yea, my point. But The issue is he looks at where the blue is on map and judges it based off that. Anyone not blind can see that. but you look at h5 thru 96 and it screamed a big hit again. Didnt see the less pv lobe interaction though. Regardless, its a plausible solution how a mucked up phase occurs. It will change at 6z. The 18z gefs being se of 12z with more spread as I noted earlier though, hopefully that wasnt a caution tape wrapped around the gift box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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