Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS has a slower evolution than the EURO. I was thinking that a fast total evolution wouldn't be terrible when mapped against the season fast flow tendency, no.. Also, I recall the GFS having to speed up a couple of system earlier this season, too, particularly from this sort of lead time heading inwards. Not saying one can slow down... just that a speedier total affair has plenty of precedence for a few reasons - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Seems like a lot of spread on the ensembles. Mean is SE of the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Seems like a lot of spread on the ensembles. Mean is SE of the op it seems. Definitely but a decent look for a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Definitely but a decent look for a week out. right...nobody should complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Another red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm just joking...but if I'm a betting man the odds would be stacked more towards recent confirmation bias, haha. Good off season case study to look at the last 5 years worth of big ticket events. I am curious if it is scientifically possible to track h5 from AC over LI and to left of the elbow anymore. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Another red flag Lol.. another ? There aren't any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Another red flag What?? The GGEM lost it, but the Euro Went BOOM. That's a pretty nice trade off imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I was just talking about the ukie and large eps spread that was mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Don't think anyone here wants to be in a day 6 jack, Or i would hope they don't..............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 EPS snow maps are happifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6+ days out is a flag. Everything else falls inside that thinking. That is the only and most important flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't think anyone here wants to be in a day 6 jack, Or i would hope they don't..............lol Its the only type of jack we get up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm not really sure what the ukmet would have looked like 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, mreaves said: Its the only type of jack we get up here How about you get jack sh*t and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Another red flag Are you thinking?? The ensembles resemble no red flags only a huge storm here on out. 14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Another red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Its the only type of jack we get up here Anything that falls here now just pads the stats at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The red flag is on those obsessing over OP cmc and ukie and the eps spreads at D6. Instead of weenie tags, we need start tossing 15ppd yellow flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6+ days out is a flag. Everything else falls inside that thinking. That is the only and most important flag. Yeah the fact that it is 6 days trumps any sort of other "red flag" such as "the ukie is southeast" or anything along those lines...OP runs move all the time. Hell, the Feb 2013 blizzard had zero model support when the Euro started showing it about 132 hours out until we got inside 96 hours...zero. Remember it went like 3-4 straight runs going solo? Lol. I feel like expectations are way too high for a day 6 threat on this one. There are positives for sure...there is multi-model ensemble support and it hasn't waivered all that much int he past couple days...those are positives. But that can easily break apart in 1 or 2 runs when we are this far out. Folks should remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 side note. I am a bit disturbed sir Ginxalot is late to his presser. Probably passed out in the command center somewhere in SECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I am curious if it is scientifically possible to track h5 from AC over LI and to left of the elbow anymore. ? No, and I'm happy about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said: Another red flag Can't get over it. My barometric system and the ensembles and the cfx radar all rule out your claim. We're looking at a high grade weather event. Put on your jackets and hats boys I'm going skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Anything that falls here now just pads the stats at this point. Unless we can do a 2001 redux - had 20" deeper pack on the 31st than on the 1st. (Of course, Farmington crushed its March snowfall record that year. Only a superweenie would expect a repeat.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm not really sure what the ukmet would have looked like 24 hours later. At 144 them surface low is just off Hatteras and 500mb setup looks pretty good. Looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, JC-CT said: How about you get jack sh*t and like it Wow, harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the fact that it is 6 days trumps any sort of other "red flag" such as "the ukie is southeast" or anything along those lines...OP runs move all the time. Hell, the Feb 2013 blizzard had zero model support when the Euro started showing it about 132 hours out until we got inside 96 hours...zero. Remember it went like 3-4 straight runs going solo? Lol. I feel like expectations are way too high for a day 6 threat on this one. There are positives for sure...there is multi-model ensemble support and it hasn't waivered all that much int he past couple days...those are positives. But that can easily break apart in 1 or 2 runs when we are this far out. Folks should remember that. That's what frustrates me about this science sometimes (but is also good for entertainment.) We can track eclipses thousands of years in advance but forecasting a storm 6 days out is much more uncertain. Maybe one day it won't be- if we can whittle down on the chunk of uncertainty governed by chaos theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Anything that falls here now just pads the stats at this point. True and I'm generally fine with that. At least if we get some decent snow, there won't be calls to open the golf course a month early, like we did in 2012. Our small course just can't generate the revenue to justify an entire month's extra operating expenses and yet we get a lot of pressure from members when other places are open and we aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, mreaves said: True and I'm generally fine with that. At least if we get some decent snow, there won't be calls to open the golf course a month early, like we did in 2012. Our small course just can't generate the revenue to justify an entire month's extra operating expenses and yet we get a lot of pressure from members when other places are open and we aren't. That happens everywhere, Course I was a member at for 20+ yrs was one that always had a later opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the fact that it is 6 days trumps any sort of other "red flag" such as "the ukie is southeast" or anything along those lines...OP runs move all the time. Hell, the Feb 2013 blizzard had zero model support when the Euro started showing it about 132 hours out until we got inside 96 hours...zero. Remember it went like 3-4 straight runs going solo? Lol. I feel like expectations are way too high for a day 6 threat on this one. There are positives for sure...there is multi-model ensemble support and it hasn't waivered all that much int he past couple days...those are positives. But that can easily break apart in 1 or 2 runs when we are this far out. Folks should remember that. Yeah for sure. Everyone panicked when the GFS didn't show it. It's a model eternity as we all say.Right now, the best thing going is the model agreement. Biggest questions is how the moisture off the SE coast either interacts with the Plains s/w...or screws it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Probably would be better if it that wave was out of the way altogether and have one less hurdle to overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.