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Model Mayhem VI

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

They're talking about the PNA ridge sticking around and another big threat at Day 9 lol (March 18-19).

We will see. Ensembles diverge pretty considerably after the day 7 storm. Some keep the party going and others warm things up. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will see. Ensembles diverge pretty considerably after the day 7 storm. Some keep the party going and others warm things up. 

Yep, based on the LR outlooks I'd been looking at, the end of the month (after the 20th at any rate) is supposed to get pretty torchy.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A/S/L ? Cuz March is prone for fireworks. Imo, it is Feb then March for best climo for big ones. 

With climate change, I actually think January is better than March and a close second to February.  Back in the 80s March was probably the better month.

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

With climate change, I actually think January is better than March and a close second to February.  Back in the 80s March was probably the better month.

 

We are splitting hairs here, all good. while Ive had 2 of my top 3 biggest snows in Jan and Dec as the 3rd, from my experience Jan is king and Dec is queen....but looking at the bigger picture outside of my yard, Feb is obv the best climo month for big ones. We agree there. Curious what, if any, stats will say when it compares Jan and Mar. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Still good chance of 

 

Looking quite a bit less likely for st pattys day. We have a better chance of snow that day than a torch. 

 

Its the period right after that which could really go either way. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We are splitting hairs here, all good. while Ive had 2 of my top 3 biggest snows in Jan and Dec as the 3rd, from my experience Jan is king and Dec is queen....but looking at the bigger picture outside of my yard, Feb is obv the best climo month for big ones. We agree there. Curious what, if any, stats will say when it compares Jan and Mar. 

I never had actually seen any HECS in January until January 1996 came along and since then there've been a bundle of them.  Last year, Jan 2016, I had the privilege of seeing my first 30"+ snowstorm (with 3" liquid equivalent to boot!).

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking quite a bit less likely for st pattys day. We have a better chance of snow that day than a torch. 

 

Its the period right after that which could really go either way. 

Yeah, and as we've seen over the last few years, the flip to warmer weather usually happens a few days after the equinox, so more like March 22nd, than March 18th.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I never had actually seen any HECS in January until January 1996 came along and since then there've been a bundle of them.  Last year, Jan 2016, I had the privilege of seeing my first 30"+ snowstorm (with 3" liquid equivalent to boot!).

 

Well now that I checked your location, yea March is no bueno for you. Too close to the water during a transition month. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I never had actually seen any HECS in January until January 1996 came along and since then there've been a bundle of them.  Last year, Jan 2016, I had the privilege of seeing my first 30"+ snowstorm (with 3" liquid equivalent to boot!).

 

You're in LI?  I grew up in the NYC area-specifically NNJ.  The January big snows go in cycles.  I remember a big one around 1954-then again a few in the early 1960s, 1978, etc...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well now that I checked your location, yea March is no bueno for you. Too close to the water during a transition month. 

lol I'm on Long Island, I've seen a few April big snowstorms too.  April 1982, April 1996 and April 2003 were my three big April snowstorms.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You're in LI?  I grew up in the NYC area-specifically NNJ.  The January big snows go in cycles.  I remember a big one around 1954-then again a few in the early 1960s, 1978, etc...

Yeah the 1950s were good for March snowstorms too.  Actually the snowiest month in the 1950s was March for some reason.  It's interesting to see this happening in January now, particularly revolving around January 20th, which is what we've had the last few years.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol me too, dry cough sucks, European is a bomb for CNE NNE moderate SNE, high ratios deep cold snow. Feet of Champagne powder at the resorts

That's exactly what it is. I had the cold last week, but I'll be coughing at night for the rest of the month.

I need to tune out of this threat. Too many times has something shown up consistently in the LR only to disappear in the MR. Need to get it to 96.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's exactly what it is. I had the cold last week, but I'll be coughing at night for the rest of the month.

I need to tune out of this threat. Too many times has something shown up consistently in the LR only to disappear in the MR. Need to get it to 96.

Im trying really really hard to tune out until 96/120 but It is impossible. Ugh.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I will say this I am slightly more confident with model agreement this far out due to it being March when a blockbuster from clashing air masses makes sense. 

Region wide foot plus then flip to spring and my winter grading goes up a letter.

Give me the 6z gfs and my grade goes from a 75 to 95. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Posted

Rough summation off the synoptic charts: looked like 3.0"+ total QPF on the slightly more robust 00z operational GFS version, to perhaps 2/3rds that on the 06z version.  Subtle morphology between the two runs, but certainly still centered around the same plot arc: amplitude smack into the climo nest for clocking the MA to NE regions...   

Firstly, Will's right - there's some impressive support in the GEFs individual members.  In fact, C0000 (sort of the operational 2nd commander under the parallel) was virtually identical.  I recall late yesterday mocking the ensemble members as all carrying significant and/or bomb like solutions, however, all on different days.  As of 00z ?  Fascinating - the 'different days' aspect was lost in lieu of focus upon days six through eight, while maintaining the impact counts. That a pretty undeniable/clad mark there.  And ...low and behold, it's happening at the apex of the PNA rise. 

Also, of tedious but perhaps telling note, ..the 00z Euro actually trended stronger and deeper with the mid /UA features. This being beyond D 4.5 before the ingredients are even coming through the west - with that particular model ...not sure how important that is.  It may yet get 'on-board' with the epicosity of the GFS, it may not.  One notable difference between those models the GFS has more of a Colorado Low that is then captured by the N stream - sort of a diffused subsume phase.  The Euro does this too ...but, it subtly weaker with the southern aspects and on 'roids with the N-stream. It would not take but an erg of work to (hyperbole) to get either solution to morph significantly toward the other.  May want to keep that in mind. 

Important also to keep in mind ... tele's can converge ... seas can part, Coke can turn to Pepsi. Sometimes, the miracles just don't target you. We're just mapping out contemporaneous/contributing features, which is all we can really do at this range.  Personally? I'm impressed with the 'tenor' of the music - similar to how a musician might predict where the melody is going based upon the first several bars of the score. 

Anyyway...what I started out to say was more a muse statement (but true) before I rudely interrupted myself:  those silly snow graphics appear to be heavily tainted toward the GFS' known bias in 1300' thickness to be too warm in the middle/extended ranges.  There's no way you are getting a mottled look/result like that, as if it's elevation dependent, ...when there is 3 to 4 inches of liq equiv falling through tropospheric over-turning dynamics at 532 DM thickness... and a system entrance atmosphere that is fresh polar, with new high parked quintessentially perfect..  R u kidding us?  wtf  Synoptic interpretation off the 00z version (for example) is objectively a choking/suffocating white out. 

I won't lie.  The tone of this is optimistic. But, there is conservative objectivity nested in this.  The stuff about going either Euro or GFS ... or, just the elephant aspect of it being D6.5 (duh).  

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