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Model Mayhem VI


Typhoon Tip

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17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Today's models really clarified that there could be some snow in the next 10 days or it could be cold and dry  and then warm up.

 I'm a little gun shy that any plowable snow could very well be restricted to ENE with these upcoming  threats. 

that is the permanent fear though for some of the interior folk or even s of pike folk in the bowels of death valley...e/se areas favored...I share the worry and frankly am just glad I had that week in Feb

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3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

that is the permanent fear though for some of the interior folk or even s of pike folk in the bowels of death valley...e/se areas favored...I share the worry and frankly am just glad I had that week in Feb

At least there are some chances....it's all we can ask.   Right now it def looks like Friday favors those to my S and E, but let's see if this skootches N a little

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My hopes and weenie dreams are on Tuesday.  Anything before that will be a pleasant surprise. EPS look pretty darn good.  About 30 members bring decent snows.  I figure there has got to be times when the blocking is just right (not too suppressed and not to far north) for us to cash in sometime in the next 2 weeks.  I like the overall look.  

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Told ya that was a monster next week ...

Now the question is, is there going to be a monster next week -

I could tell by the third panel of the 12z oper. Euro where that run was going without even seeing the actual D7/8 charts... that's why I popped with half sarcasm earlier.  Didn't turn out to be huge on that run, but, the seed of trend (should it go on to do so) is certainly planted.  I tell you what... one thing I like about the interval in question is that the heights in the deep south have receded below 582 DM everywhere, most importantly, well prior to any wave amplitude that presses eastward out of the west.   What that means is should the western ridge correct taller, the flow is then receptive to insertion into the deep southeast without a too much velocity/momentum absorption.

Interesting to see where that goes -

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It could also go up new England's fanny.

SLP goes through your backyard and PF is doing cartwheels through the gondola line.   All kidding aside hopefully we start getting some model consistency by thurs/fri that at least gets most of the NE weenies on the bus. 

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38 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

SLP goes through your backyard and PF is doing cartwheels through the gondola line.   All kidding aside hopefully we start getting some model consistency by thurs/fri that at least gets most of the NE weenies on the bus. 

Yep. Really anything is possible. Just happy we have stuff to track.

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53 minutes ago, justaroofer said:

Been patiently watching the buzz this evening. Its been a long run of "anything can happen" type model runs.

I can't help but remember a typhoon tip earlier this year about the "ELECTRON DOUBLE SPLIT EXPIERAMENT THEORY."

I believe its possible the atmospheres molecules could be becoming annoyed that science may be getting closer to predicting their movements and that , just like in the double split experiments, if perhaps in masse, are conspiring against us... MUahhh as tip would say.

I just love snow and hope for it all the time

 

 

It is physically impossible to know a particle's position and momentum exactly. Basic quantum physics. No matter how good our modeling gets, there will always be uncertainty. 

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