RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:07 AM, weathafella said: With an n of 51 it's hard for 1-2 members to skew too much. That's one reason why it is generally a superior product. Expand What I should say is, there were no inland runners as in HV or CTRV. But there were many inside BM members, that would crush just about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:12 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What I should say is, there were no inland runners as in HV or CTR. But there were many inside BM members, that would crush just about everyone. Expand That would be the perfect track. Over ACK would do as well. In this situation-not all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:07 AM, weathafella said: With an n of 51 it's hard for 1-2 members to skew too much. That's one reason why it is generally a superior product. Expand Here is the 0z GEFS, it's east of the 18z GEFS and looks like the mean goes over the BM and the members are clustered around the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: For nne? Expand Yeah, I just don't see anything that argues more then 12" or so for this one from run to run, I think expectations are very high and some may be in for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Since they were both the furthest west solutions, the question is what is the Ukie seeing now at 0z that the GFS isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:16 AM, 78Blizzard said: Since they were both the furthest west solutions, the question is what is the Ukie seeing now at 0z that the GFS isn't? Expand Whiskey. We don't call it crazy uncle for nothing-it's a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True. Expand 3 gfs ens sub 980 are west rest above are BM to the elbow. Precip pattern indicates later development as a means than previous runs increased precip in WNE while decreased Western Middle Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:14 AM, dryslot said: Yeah, I just don't see anything that argues more then 12" or so for this one from run to run, I think expectations are very high and some may be in for disappointment. Expand If so, you may not have to wait that long to get yours. Bagpipes and snowmobiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:17 AM, weathafella said: Whiskey. We don't call it crazy uncle for nothing-it's a common occurrence. Expand It is Friday night. Well, I walk into the room Passing out hundred dollar bills And it kills, and it thrills, like the horns on my silverado grill And I buy the bar double round the crown And everybody's getting down An' this town, ain't never gonna be the same 'Cause I saddle up my horse And I ride into the city I make a lot of noise 'Cause the girls They are so pretty Riding up and down broadway On my old stud leroy And the girls say Save a horse, ride a cowboy Everybody says Save a horse, ride a cowboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 So you guys can compare it in about an hour to the 0z Euro, here is the 0z UK again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:21 AM, Paragon said: So you guys can compare it in about an hour to the 0z Euro, here is the 0z UK again Expand Buy that dude a shot. Uncle Kranky ain't so tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:24 AM, Ginx snewx said: Buy that dude a shot. Uncle Kranky ain't so tonight. Expand Must be cause it's Friday Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:14 AM, dryslot said: Yeah, I just don't see anything that argues more then 12" or so for this one from run to run, I think expectations are very high and some may be in for disappointment. Expand Meh, I will be more annoyed than disappointed. Unless a historic turn of events happens, this won't leave a real usable pack for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:17 AM, weathafella said: Whiskey. We don't call it crazy uncle for nothing-it's a common occurrence. Expand Well, now that the Ukie has moved to a Euro type solution, assuming the Euro holds, we can then ask what the Euro is seeing that the GFS isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If so, you may not have to wait that long to get yours. Bagpipes and snowmobiles? Expand A lot of moving parts that have to come together for this to get to the next level, Maybe tommorw night it becomes clearer, But i don't see this as an HECS event other then it will encompass a large population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Won't be boring either when that 5 H rotates overhead on the back side. Seen some crazy things on backside southern streamers with ULLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:28 AM, dryslot said: A lot of moving parts that have to come together for this to get to the next level, Maybe tommorw night it becomes clearer, But i don't see this as an HECS event other then it will encompass a large population. Expand Tossing the Euro? Damn straight that's historical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:28 AM, 78Blizzard said: Well, now that the Ukie has moved to a Euro type solution, assuming the Euro holds, we can then ask what the Euro is seeing that the GFS isn't. Expand It's a little bizarre. GFS appears to be slowly correcting which is kind of euroesque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:28 AM, 78Blizzard said: Well, now that the Ukie has moved to a Euro type solution, assuming the Euro holds, we can then ask what the Euro is seeing that the GFS isn't. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 High confidence GFS/NAM camp is wrong based on what I see around hr 84, which is where the model divergence begins. Cyclogenesis off the SE coast tends to happen over/immediately adjacent to the GULF Stream statistically speaking, unless there is UL support to have this occur elsewhere. In the case of the GFS I don't understand why it chooses Virginia Beach for the area of best pressure falls; the UL jet is not even collocated with this location. Further, it decides to drive the SLP almost due north into Delaware despite the UL steering currents being Northeast over this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:27 AM, mreaves said: Meh, I will be more annoyed than disappointed. Unless a historic turn of events happens, this won't leave a real usable pack for me. Expand It will help up north to prolong the season but we have been cooked here a few weeks, And nothing will change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:31 AM, jbenedet said: High confidence GFS/NAM camp is wrong based on what I see around hr 84, which is where the model divergence begins. Cyclogenesis off the SE coast tends to happen over/immediately adjacent to the GULF Stream statistically speaking, unless there is UL support to have this occur elsewhere. In the case of the GFS I don't understand why it chooses Virginia Beach for the area of best pressure falls; the UL jet is not even collocated with this location. Further, it decides to drive the SLP almost due north into Delaware despite the UL steering currents being Northeast over this time frame. Expand Absolutely agree that is a positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:29 AM, Ginx snewx said: Tossing the Euro? Damn straight that's historical Expand I thought he was referring to the NNE crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:31 AM, jbenedet said: High confidence GFS/NAM camp is wrong based on what I see around hr 84, which is where the model divergence begins. Cyclogenesis off the SE coast tends to happen over/immediately adjacent to the GULF Stream statistically speaking, unless there is UL support to have this occur elsewhere. In the case of the GFS I don't understand why it chooses Virginia Beach for the area of best pressure falls; the UL jet is not even collocated with this location. Further, it decides to drive the SLP almost due north into Delaware despite the UL steering currents being Northeast over this time frame. Expand Thanks. That is the analysis I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:29 AM, Ginx snewx said: Tossing the Euro? Damn straight that's historical Expand Not tossing anything, But the trend has been towards less phasing and that's not going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:34 AM, dryslot said: Not tossing anything, But the trend has been towards less phasing and that's not going to get it done. Expand For e MA, that is what gets it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 0z CMC Ensembles are even further east than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:34 AM, dryslot said: Not tossing anything, But the trend has been towards less phasing and that's not going to get it done. Expand C'mon man you are a ratio math man, do your homework Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I think the goalposts are narrowing. Anxiously awaiting the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On 3/11/2017 at 5:38 AM, weathafella said: I think the goalposts are narrowing. Anxiously awaiting the euro. Expand Break out that Silver old man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.