SnowHole413 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I understand where Tip is coming from though. He is just saying that this is a very complex set up and we're 4.5 days out still. People are already setting expectations for 1-2 feet which may or may not happen. I hear him, all his posts have wisdom behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I've had my run-ins with Tip, but in his defense this is a model discussion thread and, as such, all opinions should be welcome, not just those favorable to a big snowstorm. And as a Met, his thoughts should, and do, carry more weight than most of us on here. Picking on a "5+ day" statement is petty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:45 PM, 78Blizzard said: I've had my run-ins with Tip, but in his defense this is a model discussion thread and, as such, all opinions should be welcome, not just those favorable to a big snowstorm. And as a Met, his thoughts should, and do, carry more weight than most of us on here. Picking on a "5+ day" statement is petty. Expand Its as petty as pointing out that the event is still 4-5 days out. Lets discuss facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:04 PM, Typhoon Tip said: doesn't come across that rational to be blunt. when someone cites a very real and objective reason not to really take the x,y,z model too seriously, and immediately it ignites a series of response that attempt to erode value off the veracity of that content ... okay. that's not how to run a rational perspective on matters - sorry. it just ain't. but, it's all good (or bad) whatever. people are going to do what they do, regardless - but what i said still is true, the wave length is too long between this thing and the ridge in the west, and that may be both why the Euro is not phase proficiently, but also kind of getting the region lucky (for lack of better word). we'll see... anomalies do happen. Expand Cosgrove has been on this train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:10 PM, JC-CT said: Link us up to those series of responses. I for one addressed a factual inaccuracy in your post, and quietly contemplated the rest of it. If you are looking for pats on the back for suggesting [valid] ways for this to not produce snow for posters in this subforum, then it's all on you for being clueless about where you are posting. Go start your own board, no weenies allowed. See how well it does. Expand Great post!!! Perfectly put!! That needed to happen! If it sh*ts the bed in the next couple days..I think most of the regulars here understand that's a distinct possibility..and are well aware of that. The discussion has been superb imo!! It's what we do here...and it's ok to be a LIL excited about what we see unfolding...and we all know that any one of these depictions/models could be wrong/or also close to being correct. It's great we even have the opportunity to track a winter system...so I'm appreciative of that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tippy says we scrape :(. At this lead time I'd like to see the biggest snows over PF and ALB, because just like the clipper, suppression is always more likely than inland runner. On another note - if the Kuchera ratios are so out of whack.....why don't they just get rid of it or modify it? What's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:49 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosgrove has been on this train. Expand Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares Expand I think he's wrong, too, but it is what it is. What they are saying makes sense, but I'll take that EPS cluster and run with it at day 4.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This is where it gets entertaining. When the brawls at Fenway and MSG ensue over such minor words put in a post, then we diverge and fight over the jacks. Bring it, come get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he's wrong, too, but it is what it is. What they are saying makes sense, but I'll take that EPS cluster and run with it at day 4.5. Expand Cosgrove hasn't gotten a forecast correct in over 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its as petty as pointing out that the event is still 4-5 days out. Lets discuss facts. Expand You missed my point. He was picked on for saying we are at 5+ days out when we are 4 days out. Big deal. His other points made were completely valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Larry has not been right since eastern weather board shut down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Cosgrove hasn't gotten a forecast correct in over 5 years Expand Ya I used to think he was quite good, but lately he's been off it seems?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:51 PM, Whineminster said: Tippy says we scrape :(. At this lead time I'd like to see the biggest snows over PF and ALB, because just like the clipper, suppression is always more likely than inland runner. On another note - if the Kuchera ratios are so out of whack.....why don't they just get rid of it or modify it? What's the point? Expand Because it attempts to use more science than a 10:1 ratio, but it just can't handle all snowfall scenarios. Like near isothermal snowfall, shallow, near-zero warm layers, or very cold surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think he's wrong, too, but it is what it is. What they are saying makes sense, but I'll take that EPS cluster and run with it at day 4.5. Expand Get your shovel ready, just not ready to commit to how many times you're shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 gfs looks good, broken record at this point but the ridge looks sharper out west. I dunno, I'm tired just give me the weenie maps at this point. jk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Deff east of previous runs which is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks a bit SE of 12z through 90 on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 987mb over Porstmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Lol, N into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Still changes over IMBY, hoping it continues trending slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 And then it runs up over Ginxys roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/6/2017 at 1:57 PM, Powderboy413 said: The euro loves coming up with these roof collapsing scenarios lol, what's this the 2nd one in 3 days Expand Excuse me but if you want to call me a weenie I disagree. My own barometric home system says otherwise. The cfx radar and the microbing of elemental molecules indicate big wind chill as well. Big storm big wind chill. My whole family is prepping. The gfs and Cfx radar. Get it out of the BALLPARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 10:07 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And then it runs up over Ginxys roof. Expand Baby steps towards a compromise with Euro. Jan '11 still my top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 9:56 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Cosgrove hasn't gotten a forecast correct in over 5 years Expand Well, you don't like him personally, but I think he's decent. Deal with it- Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 10:09 PM, Hoth said: Baby steps towards a compromise with Euro. Jan '11 still my top analog. Expand Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 10:08 PM, Weatherexpert said: Excuse me but if you want to call me a weenie I disagree. My own barometric home system says otherwise. The cfx radar and the microbing of elemental molecules indicate big wind chill as well. Big storm big wind chill. My whole family is prepping. The gfs and Cfx radar. Get it out of the BALLPARK. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 PF and Eyewall hugging it out over Vermont IPAs at happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 No toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 On 3/10/2017 at 10:11 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: PF and Eyewall hugging it out over Vermont IPAs at happy hour. Expand EURO ticks west, GFS ticks east. They'll meet in the middle over the Canal or BOS Harbor hopefully ;). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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