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Model Mayhem VI

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Hey gang -

I figure 50 + pages and somewhere over 1,500 blogs entries is probably long enough to completely evade any hope of cogency in a din topical vectors (particularly when that thread starts attracting random alcoholics' unique and cutting edge insights into the functional usefulness of forecast philosophies..), that someone should go ahead and fire up a new one.  Hopefully, with some semblance of getting back to a nice place to posit thoughts for those that like the exchange of wisdom and insights because ...well, beyond learning it's just fun. 

By the way, if anyone wants a regimented forecast that badly, I would suggest you start a thread titled:  "Meteorologists (red tag): please enter your forecast in High, Low, cloud coverage and precipitation format. Feel free to enter winds in mph."   And then ask that Moderation limit conjecture of any kind in said thread.  Otherwise, no one is getting paid to contribute here? You are not owed anything.  If you want a point-and-click forecast that is different than the ones totally free to the public put out by your tax dollars at work, via the NWS, you can expand upon the resources of this site, appeal to the generosity of the contributor Mets and I am sure some will oblige. 

... Okay, so, with teh WPO nearing historic lows as an index, I'd be a little concerned that the Pacific doesn't break rather abruptly toward an Alaskan ridge... mid month-ish.  Things have been rather inharmonious all winter, sometimes having conflicting teleconnector mass-field indicators vying for proxy ...and what suffers?  The models... It seems the the resolution of all models, even all mighty Euro, are just not resolved finite enough to ride the razor edge in that chaos, and end up picking one side (this is a metaphor ;) ) and then flopping all weight on that side.

I suspect that conceptual truth there also forces the faux consistency and a seemingly troublesome base-line state.  I can seem to detect one... It really appears like the whole hemisphere, particularly on our side is like an unmanned fire-hose, spraying solutions all over the place. ..'nother metaphor.   

Hyperbole aside, the WPO could anchor things if that scale/degree of negative SD really gets achieved... it should transmit down wind (eventually) over the next week to 10 days...2 weeks.

Not surprising, we are seeing some cold loading into the Canadian shield... and some -EPO ... I don't believe the present modeled solution(s) re that feature (however) are really related to the aforementioned -WPO... but that could re-inforce that - supposition/speculation and deliberately NOT A FORECAST just for all people presently imbibing with a sadly state of life affairs looking to chaff non-suspecting people with their negative bullschit. 

I don't really have a present idea on the end of the work week deal - I think Will and Scott have that under control (ha). But, I suspect that is a reall with more than 70 % personal confidence. All 12 primary GEF members have it.  The Euro does... and the EPS.  And, it's really D4.5 because it's D4 for Wisconsin and the structure of the flow et al means that whatever is there on D4 is definitely not disappearing/falling victim to morphologies before it gets here in a multi-contoured uber fast flow.  That flow structure is like iron railway. Gradient can giveth - not just take away. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah Tip...the whole morphology of the North American pattern has taken on a colder look with a bit more poleward ridging in the PAC and it sort of "rolls over" somewhat into the EPO region for an extra assist there....and of course the NAO block looks real. It doesn't look nuclear or anything but def strong enough to punch and "trap" the PV lobe for a time in Quebec. 

Still some question on how wintry it remains beyond about day 7-8 as the heights in the south could try and fight back. Ideally we'd be in the sweet spot for overrunning or better yet, a nice shortwave that is able to get a little PNA assist for a deeper trough/coastal to tap into that huge baroclinic zone...obviously just some conjecture there but this time of year (as you know) can feature some amazing thermal gradients for storms to work with as you get the southern regions really responding to the increasing spring sun angle while north still has cryospheric-enhanced air masses coming in from the Arctic. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Euro ensembles have some ridging out west now for the weekend so that could help make a more substantial coastal type system. They are really cold though and have decided to really press that vortex into SE Canada. So we are gonna have to watch the possibility of suppression. I'm not typically worried about suppression late in the season when we don't have huge blocking but who knows. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles have some ridging out west now for the weekend so that could help make a more substantial coastal type system. They are really cold though and have decided to really press that vortex into SE Canada. So we are gonna have to watch the possibility of suppression. I'm not typically worried about suppression late in the season when we don't have huge blocking but who knows. 

Hopefully we can get the s/w to phase a little better on the euro op. The PV on the op was in a decent spot to do so, Sunday morning.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles have some ridging out west now for the weekend so that could help make a more substantial coastal type system. They are really cold though and have decided to really press that vortex into SE Canada. So we are gonna have to watch the possibility of suppression. I'm not typically worried about suppression late in the season when we don't have huge blocking but who knows. 

You think Friday is a finger in meat grinder it can at least SNE grab some?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You think Friday is a finger in meat grinder it can at least SNE grab some?

Not trending well but still time to come back...gonna have to reverse trends today/tonight though since we're gonna be getting inside 96 hours.

Looks like several chances after that though even if it doesn't pan out. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I bet the mirror opposite of that happens...  heh

That would be the expectation.  That's why it's fun to look at cause NNY doesn't get synoptic bombs anymore.  And you never bet against ENE big snows.

lol this seasons rage the kuchie snow maps have 52" at SLK through Day 10.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

It's a good point. 

The fast flow/compression/gradient, however we want to define it, that which has dominated the flow characteristic at pretty much all times since Halloween ...is probably not going away as we herald in and transpire our way through this [perhaps] last wintry amplitude era of the "geriatric" winter.

As to Friday: I am both surprised and not surprised that the two lesser admonished forecast models out of the pantheon of enabling eye candy ...bailed on the clipper from Friday.  It occurs to me as my eyes are running over those 00z runs, isn't this a broken record with those flat waves?  I'm pretty sure this is now the third one that was extended --> mid range, when/where the GFS was consistent with a system that really is for all intents and purposes, indistinguishable in that regard - they've all looked and evolved through the flow in very much the same way. 

Poof, as the mid range get more like early mid range.  

Yesterday we were really at the threshold for better modeling performance Technically, the Euro still has/had the right to bail.  Which, different from the last two of these "little critters,"  the Euro never carried those. It was the GFS that had to acquiesce.  Which, enters why I am a little more surprised this time. The Euro did carry this particular one.  In fact, all main 12 members of the GEFS (I'm aware there is a multitude of them not released) did too. There was overwhelming support.  

It is probably rarer to en masse all depict a scenario, then fail.  But, certainly not impossible.  So we'll see.  Perhaps there is something endemic about this plaguing Jovian maelstrom that's causing the models to carry phantom waves. Who knows. One thing about this and the other 'litter critters that failed to bite,' they are not really rooted in a large mass-field modulations, such as those that are signaled when the PNA spikes or the NAO tanks...etc.  They sort of "fit inbetween" those sort of markers and behave more like giga motions - physical motions that emerge withing/inside closed systems do to variable interaction from outside. 

In the meantime, the general theme of a more impressive northern arc of the Pacific (for sending ridging into Alaska and plausibly maintaining cold source later in the year) is still prevalent.  I don't have a problem with the general idea of more storminess...

One aspect to keep in mind is that the March continent recoups increasing diabatic heating on a pretty steep slope.  There's a reason why the science of Meteorology has this "month" as a spring month, and it is more than merely out of convenience to blocking off segments of time.  But, in patterns that favor cold loading into the middle latitudes, that makes this month particularly fickle when it comes to handling/maintaining features in the flow. That diabatic heating adds to ambient instability across fronts ...which enhances thickness gradient (not necessarily dm-heights), which has a way to both baroclinic feed-back on system structures, but also can morph the the flow out in time/increase modeling errors (When a warm front flaps its wings in a garden over China?)  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gun shy?

I've loaded the chamber already.

Lets see what happens with the highly anomalous deep deep LP in Central Canada which produces a mega Miller B near New Foundland which intensifies causing strong NW confluent flow over NE. Early bet is forget the clipper concentrate on the weekend and next Wed but clarity will be had by this Wed 3pm. No use in trying to guess in a highly anomalous setup.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That would be the expectation.  That's why it's fun to look at cause NNY doesn't get synoptic bombs anymore.  And you never bet against ENE big snows.

lol this seasons rage the kuchie snow maps have 52" at SLK through Day 10.

EPS relatively heavily clustered inside the BM and off of the cape.

Looks like best clustering Sunday is just outside of the BM.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Isotherms did a great job forecasting this period of blocking and -nao. The guy he been all over it even when the ensembles had nothing. 

 

Thanks for the compliment Tim. Let's hope we see the ground results for all of us ( I think we will).

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