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Severe Weather Risk tomorrow SW Missouri NW Arkansas


Jim Martin

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Lone supercell north of Fort Smith starting to have a better presentation on radar. Rotation also improving.

TOR warned again. 

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Crawford County in northwestern Arkansas...
  Southeastern Washington County in northwestern Arkansas...

* Until 1045 PM CST
    
* At 1020 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 3 miles southwest of Devils Den State Park,
  moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Elkins...                         West Fork...
  Winslow...                        Chester...
  Brentwood...                      Devils Den State Park...
  Strickler...                      Blackburn...
  Wyola...                          Sulphur City...
  Woolsey...                        Hicks...
  Arnett...                         Mount Gayler...
  Durham...                         Bidville...
  Locke...                          
 

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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Is that a huge TDS forming or is that a low correlation for some other reason?

If it's open air, the correlation coefficient is inconclusive, aka it means absolutely nothing when relating to debris. Has to correlate with reflectivity ~>50dBz, and the couplet.

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Trimble, Missouri has sustained what looks to be potentially high-end damage as a result of this event. Video shows an anchor-bolted home that was swept completely away, with what looks to be total collapse of the rebar reinforced concrete walk-out basement wall. The metal I-beam that supports the home over the basement has also been ripped loose, pulled out of the basement and bent. Brett Adair says he found sheared off anchor bolts at this location as well. Very curious to see what survey teams find here.

 

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I would say by looking at surrounding damage and the cars, that there may have been structural difficiencies in the house.  Unless that open end of the concrete basement was collapsed, I could see that being the point that failed causing the house to be swept away. The car still parked there (garage under house?) sticks out, but since it was practically in a basement, I understand why it's not too ripped up.

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Tough one for sure, I'd have to see more to make educated guess. Definitely a few ef2 or stronger I would say.

I agree 100%. I would say EF3, but I don't like to make assumptions based on a short video. There is lots of evidence that can't be seen up close, like all the wood downstream that will hold clues to the failure.  I can't wait for daylight pictures that are easier to analyze.  

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Regrettably the bolded did not really work out. 

22 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Agree ^ on the 10%. SPC may be hedging since the location of the boundary is in question... Chasers would also be happier with west-central MO thanks to roads/terrain and still well south of the KC metro sprawl.

Friend in Oak Grove, MO had a tornado a block away. They heard the freight train. Oak Grove TOR was from the supercell that tracked from Shawnee Mission/Leawood, KS through Jackson County, MO. Same sup dropped golfballs on Shawnee Mission friends. North side supercell caused the Trimble area damage. KCMO Metro managed two totally separate damaging supercells. Thankfully no loss of life or serious injuries are reported.

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3 hours ago, JasonOH said:

I agree 100%. I would say EF3, but I don't like to make assumptions based on a short video. There is lots of evidence that can't be seen up close, like all the wood downstream that will hold clues to the failure.  I can't wait for daylight pictures that are easier to analyze.  

One thing I noticed in this video is a lack of toe-nails sticking out of the base plates. This likely made things rather slide-y subflooring wise. Also note that the shrubs around the house look pretty much untouched. If I had to guess, I'd say surveyors probably won't go above high-end EF3 because of this, despite what looks like an otherwise well-built home. 

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