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Severe Weather Risk tomorrow SW Missouri NW Arkansas


Jim Martin

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Mesoscale Discussion 0266
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

   Areas affected...Far eastern Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 64...

   Valid 070316Z - 070515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 64 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornadic supercells may eventually evolve out of a cluster
   of storms currently over eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...Radar shows a cluster of storms increasing in intensity
   and coverage across much of northwestern AR into far eastern OK.
   Cells are already showing mesocyclones at times. This cluster of
   developing and evolving cells will continue to have access to
   relatively warmer surface air with mid 70s upstream as dewpoints
   remain in the lower 60s. Given these storms are well ahead of the
   cold front, a few of them could become tornadic supercells. A strong
   tornado could occur given extreme/rare shear values with 0-1 km SRH
   of 500-600 m2/s2 and continued pressure falls as the surface trough
   approaches.

   Additional pre-frontal discrete storms may also form farther west of
   the current cluster, just before the cold front/squall line moves
   through.

   ..Jewell.. 03/07/2017
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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
940 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL MACON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 1000 PM CST  
      
* AT 940 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARENCE,  
  OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACON, MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
942 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  SHELBY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...  
  
* UNTIL 1030 PM CST.  
  
* AT 941 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARENCE,  
  MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.   

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3 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Hmmm. Wonder what's preventing the  AR cells from really taking off. 

notice the storms trying to get going to the south but it looks more like  elevated shower clusters

perhaps they are a little elevated above some type of warm layer still..

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