jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tornado watch likely in Iowa by 20-22Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 TOR/CONs of 4 in IA and 5 in MO, for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Also, there's plenty of lower level wind to work with in KS. Goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tor watch mesos out by SPC for southern MN south through IA into nw MO and eastern KS. Southwest MO will probably come later. First svr warning now issued in eastern Nebraska. Storms firing earlier than I would have anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 New watch in IA, 50/30 probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 SPC expanded the ENH and 10% TOR w/ sig tor hatch further west. Kansas City is now entirely included in the 10% sig tor risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Well, honestly looks like I can camp out right where I'm at here in lenexa. I'm still taking off work early. I have quick access to I35, 435, and 69 Highways. Probably the last you'll hear from me until later this evening. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Latest renditions of the HRRR have not been too excited about the possibility of CI anywhere south of Emporia in Kansas along the dryline before 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'm ok with how it's progressing, considering I'm on the fringe of the main event in Iowa. Stuff in Nebraska heading here eventually will satisfy the itch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Looking at 18Z HRRR soundings from across E/SE/NE KS, do not expect storms to shoot off and immediately become tornadic...might take until 23-01Z for anything to really get going. Environment after 00Z becomes highly conducive to tornadoes. Biggest question is will storms still be discrete by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 60/40 probs The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas Northwest and north-central Missouri Far southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop early this evening and likely form into a fast-moving line moving east across the Lower Missouri Valley. Initial storms should have the greatest potential for tornadoes and large hail, transitioning to a predominant damaging wind threat over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Looking at 18Z HRRR soundings from across E/SE/NE KS, do not expect storms to shoot off and immediately become tornadic...might take until 23-01Z for anything to really get going. Environment after 00Z becomes highly conducive to tornadoes. Biggest question is will storms still be discrete by then? Dewpoints are going to have to improve substantially by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Could the MODS add MN, IA, KS, and OK and put the date on the thread title? Thanks! I'm doing armchair chasing today, hope we see at least a couple good storms today. It's odd that we're seeing stronger severe events north of the Texas area this early in the season. I'm ready for something closer, I haven't been on a good chase in a couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 00Z windfields have steadily improved with each run. This is now looking like a pretty potent setup for any discreet cells that go up north of I40 and south of I70. This is looking to be quite the potent early March system. I wasn't particularly sold on it yesterday, expected the proverbial fly in the ointment...instead it's just slowly but steadily improved. DPs aren't great but they're probably "good enough" given the windfields in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, andyhb said: Dewpoints are going to have to improve substantially by then. Not sure they will, only around 63 ish at the red river. There's a nose pushing up from SE OK, it's not very wide but it's mid 60s if that reaches the OK/KS line it could create a narrow but significant svr threat wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 New Discussion for likely Tornado watch in MO/KS/AR/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 I'm loving this view right now. Can't upload pictures yet due to size limitations. Will post later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: Could the MODS add MN, IA, KS, and OK and put the date on the thread title? Thanks! I'm doing armchair chasing today, hope we see at least a couple good storms today. It's odd that we're seeing stronger severe events north of the Texas area this early in the season. I'm ready for something closer, I haven't been on a good chase in a couple of years. It's not to odd when you consider the severe probabilities for this time of year . Most of what you're looking for usually comes around mid March -May http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Springfield, MO did a 21z launch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/17030621_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, JoMo said: Springfield, MO did a 21z launch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/17030621_OBS/ Meh. Not exactly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 413 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN EMMET COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA... NORTHWESTERN KOSSUTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN PALO ALTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 500 PM CST. * AT 413 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FIVE ISLAND LAKE, OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMMETSBURG, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sigerson Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Greetings from Joplin, MO. My first post. I'm surprised no one's mentioned the cloud cover. Clouds dominate MO and the SE 1/4 of KS. Not a lot of breaks according to the 2145Z satellite picture. Hazy sunshine at best this PM in Joplin. Overcast now (4:45 pm). You guys know more about this than I do, but how much of a damper is the cloud cover likely to put on this situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sigerson Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Interesting. In its Mesoscale Discussion at 2:50pm, the SPC said a Tornado watch was likely soon (95% probability) for much of SW MO, SE KS, NE OK & NW AR. Not only was the Tornado Watch not issued (yet, anyway), but the MD has disappeared from SPC's site. Since then, the action has begun in IA & MN. Stealing our thunder (literally)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 hours ago, JMT417 said: New Discussion for likely Tornado watch in MO/KS/AR/OK They pulled it down...odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 I would not exactly discount the risk. Some cells are trying to get together near Kansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said: They pulled it down...odd Yea, don't think I've ever seen a 95% pulled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: They pulled it down...odd It is archived now. They have an expiration posting time ...this one was 2215 ... Doesn't mean that the risk is over. I would still expect a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The cells firing near Emporia are probably the best shot at anything significant tornado wise if they can really get going. Everything else to the north is lining out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Tornado warning along the line in KS. Expect to see a lot of these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Obvious embedded tornado there north of Des Moines, nice little couplet and noticeable inflow on base reflectivitySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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