March 11-13th Severe Weather Potential

[Anti tornado]

GFS has 3 surface lows ejecting over the great lakes regions. During that time frame, dew points look more than sufficient given they are 60+ to the Chicago area. 

Saturday (3/11) appears to be a shortwave trough in advance of a more negatively tilted trough on Sunday (3/12). Seems to be a slow moving system that will take several days to move through our sub forum. Monday (3/13) appears to be a threat for the SE area (Kentucky/Ohio)

It appears the Euro is the general ballpark as well. 

[Chicago Storm]

Way too early for this, come on now.

[nwburbschaser]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Way too early for this, come on now.

Agreed. 

Just a heads up to Anti tornado, we have a Medium/Long range thread and a Short/Medium range severe thread which is where this type of stuff should go. If we get close to an event and it looks worthwhile for a separate thread then that can happen in the days leading up to it. 

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

Although this storm is still a long ways out, it's interesting that this system is threatening the subforum 11 years to the exact weekend of the system that brought the two F2 tornadoes here in Springfield, among other areas, on 3/12/06--which was the last time March 12 fell on a Sunday.

[Anti tornado]

The only reason I posted this was because the storm fits the current pattern and I thought the medium range thread was for events not worth own thread. My bad

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

SPC already has a D6 15% area outlined for the Mid-South, and does include W KY, SE MO and far S IL:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

...Saturday/day 6 AR/MO to KY/TN...
   There is some consistency in recent operational model runs and
   associated ensembles for a low-amplitude shortwave trough, and a
   related surface cyclone, to move from the east-central Plains to the
   lower OH and TN Valleys by Saturday night.  It appears likely that
   the warm sector of this cyclone will be relatively warm/unstable
   given several days of moisture return from the south and a steep
   lapse-rate plume from the west.  Given the low-amplitude nature of
   this system, some predictability/timing concerns will likely linger
   to within 2-3 days of the potential event.  Still, the quality of
   the warm sector and strengthening wind profiles with the
   wave/cyclogenesis appear supportive of an organized severe-storm
   risk, even if the exact details of the threat area will probably
   change in later outlooks.