Powerball Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 11 hours ago, Stebo said: 5% tor risk for SEMI on the new day 1, actually seeing a decent consensus of some supercells forming across MI later today as long as stuff can move out early enough in the morning. That said right now models are overdoing what is supposed to be out there right now as well. So much for today (not that it wasn't expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 At least it's not as disappointing when you've come to expect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 Tornado in eastern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 901 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2017 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0813 PM TORNADO 4 E KINGSTON 43.41N 83.11W 08/17/2017 TUSCOLA MI FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, A TRAILER IS FLIPPED OVER, AND METAL/SHINGLES TORN FROM ROOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Video of the tornado, actually a decent tornado to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 DVN confirmed a few tornadoes from yesterday evening up west of Freeport. I've lost count how many confirmed tornadoes there's been this year in the DVN cwa, but it's gotta be over 30 by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 SPC has a Day 5 risk outlined for most of the eastern part of the sub for Tuesday (Aug. 22): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Subtropical ridging may remain prominent across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through much of next week. However, the latest medium range model output suggests that an initially zonal belt of westerlies, near the Canadian/U.S. border early next week, may undergo amplification by mid week. This appears likely to include a digging large-scale upper trough across the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a significant cold front, which could progress through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the work week. Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front may be accompanied by considerable thunderstorm development. At the present time, it seems that this may be favorably timed with peak diurnal boundary layer destabilization across the southern/lower Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley, to support severe storm development Tuesday into Tuesday night. Severe weather potential across areas farther south and east becomes more uncertain by Wednesday, as the front may advance across southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas as early as mid day, and stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields shift north/northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes. ..Kerr.. 08/18/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Tim from Springfield (IL) said: SPC has a Day 5 risk outlined for most of the eastern part of the sub for Tuesday (Aug. 22): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Subtropical ridging may remain prominent across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through much of next week. However, the latest medium range model output suggests that an initially zonal belt of westerlies, near the Canadian/U.S. border early next week, may undergo amplification by mid week. This appears likely to include a digging large-scale upper trough across the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a significant cold front, which could progress through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the work week. Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front may be accompanied by considerable thunderstorm development. At the present time, it seems that this may be favorably timed with peak diurnal boundary layer destabilization across the southern/lower Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley, to support severe storm development Tuesday into Tuesday night. Severe weather potential across areas farther south and east becomes more uncertain by Wednesday, as the front may advance across southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas as early as mid day, and stronger lower/mid tropospheric wind fields shift north/northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes. ..Kerr.. 08/18/2017 Been watching this one for a bit, could be a good squall line potential with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 The storms just SE of DC and Baltimore are producing over 1,400 strikes per minute. I don't think I've ever seen anything close to that. Even the Real Time lighting tracker can't process all of the strikes fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 32 minutes ago, Powerball said: The storms just SE of DC and Baltimore are producing over 1,400 strikes per minute. I don't think I've ever seen anything close to that. Even the Real Time lighting tracker can't process all of the strikes fast enough. Healthiest weather event I've experienced since a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looking like a risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Labor Day). Main risks from large hail and damaging wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Day One Enhanced Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Really need this to slowdown about an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Can't believe with an enhanced more people are not on here today. Could get some early turners when these storms develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Can't believe with an enhanced more people are not on here today. Could get some early turners when these storms develop Partially because it's a holiday (thus everyone's busy with outdoor / family functions), and partially because (as IWXwx mentioned earlier) it's such a narrow window for activity that many of us have just as good of a chance at not seeing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like we'll have plenty of smoke overhead, which should help with cloud seeding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like we'll have plenty of smoke overhead, which should help with cloud seeding...Is that what this is? Sky looks so weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Is that what this is? Sky looks so weird Yes. There are a ton of wildfires ongoing right now on the west coast (where the massive heat wave continues). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Enhanced risk area has been extended NE in the latest update (now including Toledo/ Lake Erie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 This storm must be late for something... Severe Thunderstorm Warning MIC017-041900- /O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0045.170904T1807Z-170904T1900Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 207 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017 The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Bay County in southeastern Michigan... * Until 300 PM EDT * At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pinconning, moving east at 85 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Bay County, including the following locations: Auburn, Pinconning, Linwood, Kawkawlin, Bentley, Mount Forest, Crump, Willard and Bay City State Recreation Area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4391 8404 4391 8396 4382 8389 4381 8389 4374 8391 4369 8388 4368 8385 4357 8414 4357 8416 4400 8417 4400 8405 TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 265DEG 72KT 4386 8403 HAIL...0.75IN WIND...60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 MIZ059-065>067-072>074-042030- Clinton-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- Including the cities of St. Johns, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON... Conditions in Southern Lower Michigan are becoming favorable for the development of thunderstorms over the next several hours this afternoon... especially near and southeast of Kalamazoo... Hastings... and Saint Johns. Thunderstorms may develop rapidly and move to the east at 50 to 60 mph. Cloud to ground lightning strikes will be dangerous to people caught outdoors. Storms may later intensify and be capable of producing hail around 1 inch in diameter... and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Remain alert for changing weather conditions this afternoon... and be prepared to move indoors quickly if storms develop. Additional statements... watches... or warnings will be issued by the National Weather Service later this afternoon if needed. $$ CAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 It looks like the main line of storms is beginning to build, based on the satellite and the showers that have developed in SC Michigan / N. Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 59 minutes ago, Powerball said: * Until 300 PM EDT * At 207 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pinconning, moving east at 85 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to highlight that 85mph value. Cells are moving at 50-55 kts on average, and they are not very severe. That is fast, but the 85mph is just one of those things you get when the computer algorithm calculates one cell moves faster than the others. On a related note, the HRRR runs have been highlighting some stronger storms around Lenawee County Michigan. Regardless, wind damage along the line of storms (later) may be somewhat random anyway, in SE Michigan and NW Ohio. Maybe my parents will see something interesting (for once.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Starting to boil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 SPC just introduced an area of 45 unhatched winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: SPC just introduced an area of 45 unhatched winds Interesting move. Very narrow swath. I'd imagine our watch should be coming shortly now that that has been introduced. More vigorous looking convection firing to the north and west of Coldwater, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: SPC just introduced an area of 45 unhatched winds Nice. Right over my head too. I won't be posting much when the feces hits the electric air circulating machine, I'll be out in the open somewhere holding my Kestral out of the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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