Indystorm Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 4 inches of rain already being reported this noon eastern time in Fishers IN with flooding and road closures being reported. Flood warning till 6 p.m. Just torrential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Six inches of rain reported at 1 p.m. EDT at Albany IN just ne of Muncie where street flooding is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Models and or ILN really goofed on placement of the flood watch area in Ohio. They seemed to be favoring southern portions of the state and yet northern portions are getting the training. Southern areas may only end up with the frontal-passage rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Models and or ILN really goofed on placement of the flood watch area in Ohio. They seemed to be favoring southern portions of the state and yet northern portions are getting the training. Southern areas may only end up with the frontal-passage rains. Am in full agreement here in Indiana. Convergence axis of heaviest precip so far has been in central IN. Remnants of Cindy's circulation now near Hopkinsville KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Am in full agreement here in Indiana. Convergence axis of heaviest precip so far has been in central IN. Remnants of Cindy's circulation now near Hopkinsville KY. Yep...the award on this one goes to the rgem. Was consistently the furthest north with the heaviest axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Yep, just drove from Columbus, IN to Huntington and it's obvious that the heaviest axis of rain was from IND up to just north of MIE in Central/North Central IN. Fields and roads flooded and creeks are roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2017 Author Share Posted June 24, 2017 May have some severe opportunities mid-late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: May have some severe opportunities mid-late week. Yeah been watching that period into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight. Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years. It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn. The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere. I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit. Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 51 minutes ago, London snowsquall said: A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight. Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years. It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn. The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere. I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit. Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow Damn that's crazy, here in North London we just got a bit of wind and rain, everything has been missing my house lately. I was pretty surprised when I saw the power outages and hail videos from other parts of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 2 hours ago, London snowsquall said: A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight. Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years. It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn. The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere. I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit. Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow I saw that when I tuned into TWN this evening, very impressive hail storm. EC putting out the severe thunderstorm warning after the storm, how typical. I don't get why its so hard for them to do what should be the easiest thing in the world...look at the radar to see what is coming and warn accordingly before the cell gets to x spot. Then on the other hand, we get severe thunderstorm warnings all the time for garden variety storms on time!! Good 'ole EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 11 hours ago, ConfusedKitten said: Damn that's crazy, here in North London we just got a bit of wind and rain, everything has been missing my house lately. I was pretty surprised when I saw the power outages and hail videos from other parts of the city. A couple pics and the one was taken this morning with the hail that still hadn't melted from over 12 hours ago. Not sure what it is made of.... I have some others showing some flooding and more hail shots that my wife took but I can't seem to resize them to fit the attachment constraints that I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week. Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer. Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week. Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer. Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled. GFS and (to a lesser extent) GGEM show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2017 Share Posted June 25, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week. Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer. Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled. Also a number of shortwaves embedded within the Pacific jet that should allow for some opportunities for a more widespread event or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2017 Author Share Posted June 26, 2017 00z NAM has a 50+ kt LLJ on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good for this time of year (also a mid 990s surface low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM has a 50+ kt LLJ on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good for this time of year (also a mid 990s surface low). The biggest concern(At least in my eyes) are the pretty pathetic CAPE profiles for this time of year. Shear values are fairly impressive, noting the LLJ as you mentioned, but mediocre lapse rates less than 7 C/km yield a tall, but ultimately an extremely narrow CAPE profile relatively unfavorable for strong, robust updrafts. This is likely due in part to multiple rounds of convection in the area before hand(as evident on the GFS in particular) would limit the intensity of new thunderstorm development. That said, if lapse rates improve or we eliminate convection concerns, a fairly strong complex/line of storms should evolve given the favorable shear parameters. I say line because(maybe my expectations are too high) directional shear looks average or slightly less than, with most of the SRH coming from speed shear generated by an impressive LLJ as well as surface wind vectors not as perpendicular to the boundary as I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 3km NAM not particularly encouraging on the first run to put 00z Thursday in range, with little in the way of robust convection, let alone UH at that time. Surprised that SPC introduced the "T" word at Day 3 despite the marginal forecast lapse rates. On the plus side, it has thinned out the convection over WI, IA and MN it had at 18z on the previous run. What convection there is doesn't look like something particularly organized that would lay down a totally atmosphere-overturning cold pool. Would suck to see another favorable synoptic setup fail due to ill-timed convective trash, but it is still 2017, unfortunately. Seems like all the setups this year that have the instability don't have the low-level SRH, and vice versa. And as previous poster pointed out, low-level directional shear is still not all that great despite higher forecast SRH values than we've seen on a lot of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 On 6/25/2017 at 10:36 AM, cyclone77 said: Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week. Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer. Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled. Euro really backed off on all of the above. Pretty disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 It's still 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2017 Author Share Posted August 1, 2017 May have a shot at something on Thursday. The area near the surface low track could be of particular interest with better low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Golfball size hail has been reported from a cell a county east of Cedar Rapids. There are some other decent-looking cells as well. They popped west of me, but went around CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Scattered severe storms across WI/IL/IA currently. Across the LOT CWA, even though there's a watch, not expecting anything more than isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Biggest hail here in several years. Had a brief burst of 1-1.25" size hail a little while ago. Luckily the sup started weakening a bit right as it got here. Think there could have been golf balls west/northwest of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Scattered severe storms across WI/IL/IA currently. Across the LOT CWA, even though there's a watch, not expecting anything more than isolated severe. Not to play Thursday evening quarterback on this, but I'm surprised that SPC didn't initially include at least a sliver south to part of the ILX CWA (even if just Peoria northward initially then local extensions if warranted), or perhaps a small new watch roughly N and W of I-55 and I-72. Not only is Peoria in play within the next hour or so, if that storm that produced the Hancock/McDonough county warning continues its track, that system might clip the SPI area later--and tonight is the first night of the Illinois State Fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Safe to say this was unexpected. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017 MNC103-162300- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170816T2300Z/ Nicollet MN- 543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTY...At 542 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over New Sweden, or 15 miles northeast of New Ulm, moving north at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Nicollet County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Another PDS Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017 MNC085-143-170015- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170817T0015Z/ Sibley MN-McLeod MN- 639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD COUNTIES... At 638 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Winthrop, or 20 miles south of Hutchinson, moving northwest at 15 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 638 pm, a large tornado was reported northwest of Gaylord on county road 10 and highway 15. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Brownton around 710 PM CDT. Stewart around 715 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fernando and Sumter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Safe to say this was unexpected. definitely, especially in the area where the cloud shield was all day. I was maybe expecting something down in southeast MN (ONA/RST/AEL/LSE) into western WI given that they had more sun and more likely to get the right combo of cape and dynamics. But all this stuff near the warm front itself, this is all dynamics (200-400 m^2) and less than 1000j/kg of SB or MU CAPE. also, there's a non-warned cell between Zumbrota and Stanton that's been rotating decently on the larger scale, and may affect Lakeville as well as Bloomington west of the airport. And yes, even a short-term tornado watch for areas west of the metro just issued. definitely an interesting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 5% tor risk for SEMI on the new day 1, actually seeing a decent consensus of some supercells forming across MI later today as long as stuff can move out early enough in the morning. That said right now models are overdoing what is supposed to be out there right now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Possible watch for E IN/W OH. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Southeast Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171604Z - 171800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Line of storms across eastern IN will gradually strengthen as it continues eastward in OH. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible within the strongest storms. Trends will be monitored for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in storm intensity within the line of thunderstorm stretching across eastern IN. Moisture advection ahead of the line is supporting downstream airmass destabilization and mesoanalysis now estimates MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg for much of the region. General expectation is for the ongoing line to gradually intensify as it interacts with the very moist and unstable airmass downstream. Strengthening mid-level flow will also contribute to stronger shear and a more supportive environment for better updraft organization. Predominately linear mode and the very moist airmass will support a primary severe threat of damaging wind gusts associated with wet microbursts. Additionally, the strengthening mid-level flow will contribute to a modest increase in storm-relative helicity. This increased helicity and low LCLs support the potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier/Weiss.. 08/17/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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