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2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Models and or ILN really goofed on placement of the flood watch area in Ohio.   They seemed to be favoring southern portions of the state and yet northern portions are getting the training.    Southern areas may only end up with the frontal-passage rains.

Am in full agreement here in Indiana.  Convergence axis of heaviest precip so far has been in central IN.  Remnants of Cindy's circulation now near Hopkinsville KY.

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A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight.   Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years.   It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn.   The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere.   I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit.    Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow 

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51 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight.   Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years.   It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn.   The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere.   I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit.    Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow 

Damn that's crazy, here in North London we just got a bit of wind and rain, everything has been missing my house lately. I was pretty surprised when I saw the power outages and hail videos from other parts of the city.

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2 hours ago, London snowsquall said:

A week to the day, we got another severe storm roll through about 7 pm tonight.   Flooding with this one, high winds and the biggest hail storm that I have seen in years.   It's 930, and 2.+hrs after the storm I still have hail that hasn't melted on the deck and the lawn.   The property has taken a beating but no trees down - just scores of branches, shredded leaves and general **** everywhere.   I checked and Environment Canada put our a severe thunderstorm warning a couple minutes after the storm hit.    Not good as this one was worse locally than the one that had a tornado warning last Saturday...........post a few pics tomorrow

I saw that when I tuned into TWN this evening, very impressive hail storm. EC putting out the severe thunderstorm warning after the storm, how typical. I don't get why its so hard for them to do what should be the easiest thing in the world...look at the radar to see what is coming and warn accordingly before the cell gets to x spot. Then on the other hand, we get severe thunderstorm warnings all the time for garden variety storms on time!! Good 'ole EC.
 

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11 hours ago, ConfusedKitten said:

Damn that's crazy, here in North London we just got a bit of wind and rain, everything has been missing my house lately. I was pretty surprised when I saw the power outages and hail videos from other parts of the city.

A couple pics and the one was taken this morning with the hail that still hadn't melted from over 12 hours ago.   Not sure what it is made of....

I have some others showing some flooding and more hail shots that my wife took but I can't seem to resize them to fit the attachment constraints that I have.

 

 

126.jpg

125.jpg

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21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week.  Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer.  Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled.

GFS and (to a lesser extent) GGEM show the same thing.

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week.  Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer.  Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled.

Also a number of shortwaves embedded within the Pacific jet that should allow for some opportunities for a more widespread event or two.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

00z NAM has a 50+ kt LLJ on Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Pretty good for this time of year (also a mid 990s surface low).

The biggest concern(At least in my eyes) are the pretty pathetic CAPE profiles for this time of year. Shear values are fairly impressive, noting the LLJ as you mentioned, but mediocre lapse rates less than 7 C/km yield a tall, but ultimately an extremely narrow CAPE profile relatively unfavorable for strong, robust updrafts. This is likely due in part to multiple rounds of convection in the area before hand(as evident on the GFS in particular) would limit the intensity of new thunderstorm development. That said, if lapse rates improve or we eliminate convection concerns, a fairly strong complex/line of storms should evolve given the favorable shear parameters. I say line because(maybe my expectations are too high) directional shear looks average or slightly less than, with most of the SRH coming from speed shear generated by an impressive LLJ as well as surface wind vectors not as perpendicular to the boundary as I'd like.

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3km NAM not particularly encouraging on the first run to put 00z Thursday in range, with little in the way of robust convection, let alone UH at that time. Surprised that SPC introduced the "T" word at Day 3 despite the marginal forecast lapse rates. On the plus side, it has thinned out the convection over WI, IA and MN it had at 18z on the previous run. What convection there is doesn't look like something particularly organized that would lay down a totally atmosphere-overturning cold pool.

Would suck to see another favorable synoptic setup fail due to ill-timed convective trash, but it is still 2017, unfortunately.

Seems like all the setups this year that have the instability don't have the low-level SRH, and vice versa. And as previous poster pointed out, low-level directional shear is still not all that great despite higher forecast SRH values than we've seen on a lot of setups.

 

 

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On 6/25/2017 at 10:36 AM, cyclone77 said:

Euro brings the heat next weekend into the following week.  Also builds up widespread mammoth cape for the first time this summer.  Could be some nice ridge rider action for some areas if this pattern develops as modeled.

Euro really backed off on all of the above.  Pretty disappointing.  

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Scattered severe storms across WI/IL/IA currently.

Across the LOT CWA, even though there's a watch, not expecting anything more than isolated severe.

Not to play Thursday evening quarterback on this, but I'm surprised that SPC didn't initially include at least a sliver south to part of the ILX CWA (even if just Peoria northward initially then local extensions if warranted), or perhaps a small new watch roughly N and W of I-55 and I-72.  Not only is Peoria in play within the next hour or so, if that storm that produced the Hancock/McDonough county warning continues its track, that system might clip the SPI area later--and tonight is the first night of the Illinois State Fair.

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Safe to say this was unexpected.

 

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

MNC103-162300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-170816T2300Z/
Nicollet MN-
543 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTY...

At 542 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over New Sweden, or 15 miles northeast of New Ulm, moving
north at 20 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!


HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
north central Nicollet County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take
immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation.

 

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Another PDS

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

MNC085-143-170015-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-170817T0015Z/
Sibley MN-McLeod MN-
639 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SIBLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD COUNTIES...

At 638 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Winthrop, or 20 miles south of Hutchinson, moving
northwest at 15 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 638 pm, a large
         tornado was reported northwest of Gaylord on county road
         10 and highway 15.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Brownton around 710 PM CDT.
  Stewart around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Fernando and Sumter.

 

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1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

Safe to say this was unexpected.

 

 

definitely, especially in the area where the cloud shield was all day. I was maybe expecting something down in southeast MN (ONA/RST/AEL/LSE) into western WI given that they had more sun and more likely to get the right combo of cape and dynamics. But all this stuff near the warm front itself, this is all dynamics (200-400 m^2) and less than 1000j/kg of SB or MU CAPE. also, there's a non-warned cell between Zumbrota and Stanton that's been rotating decently on the larger scale, and may affect Lakeville as well as Bloomington west of the airport.

And yes, even a short-term tornado watch for areas west of the metro just issued. definitely an interesting evening.

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5% tor risk for SEMI on the new day 1, actually seeing a decent consensus of some supercells forming across MI later today as long as stuff can move out early enough in the morning. That said right now models are overdoing what is supposed to be out there right now as well.

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Possible watch for E IN/W OH.

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern IN...Western OH...Far Southeast Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

   Valid 171604Z - 171800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Line of storms across eastern IN will gradually strengthen
   as it continues eastward in OH. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
   tornado or two are possible within the strongest storms. Trends will
   be monitored for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery has shown a gradual
   increase in storm intensity within the line of thunderstorm
   stretching across eastern IN. Moisture advection ahead of the line
   is supporting downstream airmass destabilization and mesoanalysis
   now estimates MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg for much of the region. General
   expectation is for the ongoing line to gradually intensify as it
   interacts with the very moist and unstable airmass downstream.
   Strengthening mid-level flow will also contribute to stronger shear
   and a more supportive environment for better updraft organization.

   Predominately linear mode and the very moist airmass will support a
   primary severe threat of damaging wind gusts associated with wet
   microbursts. Additionally, the strengthening mid-level flow will
   contribute to a modest increase in storm-relative helicity. This
   increased helicity and low LCLs support the potential for a few
   tornadoes.

   ..Mosier/Weiss.. 08/17/2017

 

mcd1514.gif

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