OHweather Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Another circulation recently produced what I believe is a third tornado with that cell just north of the TDWR radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Kinda surprised no MCD or tornado watch out for the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 another hook....via pic twitter....tried to post it here..no luck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 This was earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 There were at least two more tornadoes (at least I know I saw) north of the Fairborn tornado. There may have been a 3rd but I'm not 100% sure on that one. We were too late leaving Springfield on our accidental chase to get the one in Fairborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 This was just a crazy night here around Dayton. Lucky for me it stayed just east and north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 That tornado was a damn big surprise. Next shot at Severe for the majority of the subforum looks to be Saturday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 5 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: That tornado was a damn big surprise. Next shot at Severe for the majority of the subforum looks to be Saturday Night Not to those who were paying attention: On 5/22/2017 at 9:35 PM, IWXwx said: Although heavy rains and renewed flooding for already soaked soil/full rivers across Indiana are possible Wednesday, Mike Ryan made an interesting observation in this afternoon's IND discussion: One interesting component to Wednesday which should not be ignored...the presence of such a strong surface wave at 995mb or lower is likely to contribute to plenty of spin in the atmosphere with good amounts of BL shear and storm relative helicity being present. While the rain and clouds will keep heating substantially diminished...weak MLCAPEs peaking at around 500 j/kg and LCLs generally below 2kft could enable brief spinners with any stronger convective cell. Something to monitor going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: Not to those who were paying attention: Thing is that it was anything but a "brief spinner" which is his point I think. No one expected a tornado to be as strong as it appears to be and on the ground for as long as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 16 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Thing is that it was anything but a "brief spinner" which is his point I think. No one expected a tornado to be as strong as it appears to be and on the ground for as long as it was. Have to say, I couldn't have said it better. Those TOG(s) were not at all the definition of "brief spinner". It was a legit miss, similar to last August in OH. Not on that scale, but a miss nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Went back and checked the 00z ILN sounding, and it did not have much instability. There was considerable directional shear though and I'm not sure if the thermodynamic environment may have improved in the 1-2 hours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Confirmed EF 1 in Park Layne which is in southwest Clark County. Quote Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1004 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 ...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR PARK LAYNE IN CLARK COUNTY OHIO... The damage survey team has confirmed a tornado caused the damage in Park Layne, Clark County Ohio. Based on the damage, the maximum winds were estimated to be 100 mph, corresponding to an EF1 tornado. Additional information about the path length and width, time and details about the damage will be sent in another PNS later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Went back and checked the 00z ILN sounding, and it did not have much instability. There was considerable directional shear though and I'm not sure if the thermodynamic environment may have improved in the 1-2 hours after. Me and Andy were talking about the environment as the tornado was ongoing, there was good 0-3km CAPE 100-125 j/kg. That is very sufficient for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Me and Andy were talking about the environment as the tornado was ongoing, there was good 0-3km CAPE 100-125 j/kg. That is very sufficient for tornadoes. True, I should have specified total CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: True, I should have specified total CAPE. Yeah total CAPE was meh at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted May 29, 2017 Share Posted May 29, 2017 Maybe a non-zero severe threat out towards IA/MN Thursday night if the GFS/ECMWF are accurate. Modest instability, but the ECM has close to 20kts of 0-1km shear and SRH of 200+ m2/s2. NAM of course shows very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Not much going on in this crappy pattern, but one thing to watch will be the warm front Friday afternoon/evening. Nice low-level shear/low LCLs with some moderate instability near the front. Some of the models fire convection along it during that time frame. Storm vectors would keep anything that fires moving parallel to the warm front which could help. Mid-upper flow is pretty weak, so need some really hard right movement to really take advantage of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Not much going on in this crappy pattern, but one thing to watch will be the warm front Friday afternoon/evening. Nice low-level shear/low LCLs with some moderate instability near the front. Some of the models fire convection along it during that time frame. Storm vectors would keep anything that fires moving parallel to the warm front which could help. Mid-upper flow is pretty weak, so need some really hard right movement to really take advantage of this setup. Probably jinxed it. 18z 3km NAM dormant with the WF until the elevated scheme kicks in after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 23 minutes ago, Chinook said: Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. Wow, that's pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. Yeah I don't want to hear about anyone saying MI posters are complaining about missing storms. We have been screwed every way possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah I don't want to hear about anyone saying MI posters are complaining about missing storms. We have been screwed every way possible. Doesn't look to be changing any time soon either. That said, there's still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. Weather ‘bubble’ seems to spare Michigan http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/05/30/weather-bubble-seems-spare-michigan/102334488/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2017 Author Share Posted June 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. The lack of action in the northern Plains so far makes sense. The Michigan situation not as much... probably some bad luck there as well as not being into primetime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 41 minutes ago, Powerball said: Doesn't look to be changing any time soon either. That said, there's still plenty of time. This weekend could offer us SOMETHING at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Chinook said: Well, I guess severe storms hate Michigan this year, as well as North Dakota and South Dakota. This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 I would assume sparse population and reporting network. That would be Salt Lake City, so highest population density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 3 hours ago, bowtie` said: This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well. 2 hours ago, illinois said: I would assume sparse population and reporting network. That would be Salt Lake City, so highest population density. That is part of it plus they are in a valley there and tend to get some wind events periodically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 8 hours ago, bowtie` said: This is the wrong forum, but I have to ask what is special about the northwest corner of Utah? The rest of the state gets nothing but that corner does quite well. I grew up in that corner of UT. That map does indeed follow the major population centers along the western side of the Wasatch range--called by natives the "Wasatch Front." There are some very strong wind events to the west and north of that square, but the land use is huge dry farms run by farmers who live some distance away so few actually have homes or buildings and therefore less awareness. To the east are the mountains, and so some few mountain communities. There are some significant winds that come out of the canyons though, if the situation is right. Communities to the south are limited by water, much of which comes from smaller wells. It is windy and cold in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 1, 2017 Share Posted June 1, 2017 Looks like an MCS could be possible Saturday night, especially in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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