Chicago Storm Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 Definitely potential from the Plains on into our sub-forum Wednesday-Saturday. One issue to watch that has been shown and could be an issue is a meridional flow for some part of that timeframe. A setup like this also tends to have "messy" setups as the days go on, with repeated rounds of convection and debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 As I suspected a Day 8 15% has been outlined for the plains. This is at least the 2nd time this year there has been a Day 8 highlighted. ...Friday/Day 8... The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement in the western U.S., developing a vigorous upper-level trough in the Four Corners region. This coincides with strong moisture advection across the Great Plains. The synoptic setup which the medium-range models have been forecasting for a couple days, could result in a significant severe weather event on Friday into Friday night across parts of the southern and central Plains with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage possible. Due to the potential for a higher-end event on Friday, have added a 15 percent contour where model consensus places the greatest chance of severe weather. Tornadoes mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 The potential limitations were mentioned earlier, but one thing this has going for it is the wide open Gulf. If this period fails, it probably won't be because of bad moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 LOT noticing Wednesday through the end of the week, a strong upper wave is expected to carve out a deep trough over the Intermountain West which will set the stage for a classic severe weather setup over portions of the Great Plains and potentially into portions of the Midwest. A deep upper trough axis centered over the Desert Southwest and a Bermuda High will allow a wide open gulf and good moisture transport into the region while aloft strong flow is expected as a negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts across the region. Way to early to get into specific location and timing details, but initial indications are for the possibility of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms locally Thursday through the weekend along with much warmer and potentially summer-like temperatures starting Friday. Warm front lifting across the region Thursday will bring a shot of showers and thunderstorms with temperatures possibly well into the 80s as we get into the warm sector Friday and/or Saturday. As models begin to hone in on the timing and track of the surface low and attendant front over the next few days, any local severe thunderstorm threat should become more clear, but in the meantime just bears close watching until the details come into better focus. Deubelbeiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 0Z GFS would have a nice little severe event Wed. night for Southern MI, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2017 Author Share Posted April 23, 2017 8 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS would have a nice little severe event Wed. night for Southern MI, Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio The day 4 outlook has an area outlined farther southwest (southeast Missouri) but there should be a severe threat into more of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2017 Author Share Posted April 23, 2017 The 12z GFS gets 70 degree dewpoints pretty far north in Illinois next weekend. That is probably not the easiest thing to do at this point in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 23, 2017 Share Posted April 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: The 12z GFS gets 70 degree dewpoints pretty far north in Illinois next weekend. That is probably not the easiest thing to do at this point in the year. Has to be from recent rains down south and an open Gulf flow. Certainly can't be transpiration this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Wednesday setup may tend to be messy/linear (and instability looks somewhat modest) but this isn't completely terrible in northern IL. Strong wind fields through the column. I like the general trend toward deepening surface low but the flow aloft is pretty meridional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Wednesday setup may tend to be messy/linear (and instability looks somewhat modest) but this isn't completely terrible in northern IL. Strong wind fields through the column. I like the general trend toward deepening surface low but the flow aloft is pretty meridional. A surprising thing to note is the GFS is actually more bullish with it than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: A surprising thing to note is the GFS is actually more bullish with it than the NAM. Still some model differences in the evolution. Will need to give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 km NAM has some discrete looking cells ahead of the line on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 You'd think the Westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere got the date screwed up and thought it was Valentines Day. Lol Definitely some energy building in the Midwest this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Wow updated drought monitor is pretty nuts. Scattered reports of abnormally dry in the plains and Deep South, with a drought confined to Georgia, Florida, Alabama. This hasn't taken into account the rain over the past few days neither. I've never seen the map this bare before, also it was confirmed this is the lowest amount of the country in drought since 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Chambana said: Wow updated drought monitor is pretty nuts. Scattered reports of abnormally dry in the plains and Deep South, with a drought confined to Georgia, Florida, Alabama. This hasn't taken into account the rain over the past few days neither. I've never seen the map this bare before, also it was confirmed this is the lowest amount of the country in drought since 2000 Still incredible how relatively quickly those long term exceptional drought areas cleared up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Still incredible how relatively quickly those long term exceptional drought areas cleared up It's astonishing. 5 years to develop, 5 months to erase lol. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 Could be some decent elevated convection tomorrow night from northeast Iowa down into parts of Indiana. Nice elevated cape ridge showing up on the guidance. MU cape of around 1000J/kg with decent shear profiles. LRs are decent, so some small hail should be likely with some of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Seems to be a chance for a strong storm or two along the warm front around Cincinnati today. (5/09) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 New SPC Day 2 for Wednesday places much of central IL in slight risk and much of IN in marginal. T storms Wed. evening might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Also models are hinting at some action possibly mid week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 13, 2017 Share Posted May 13, 2017 Could have an interesting situation if the cap breaks mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Although heavy rains and renewed flooding for already soaked soil/full rivers across Indiana are possible Wednesday, Mike Ryan made an interesting observation in this afternoon's IND discussion: One interesting component to Wednesday which should not be ignored...the presence of such a strong surface wave at 995mb or lower is likely to contribute to plenty of spin in the atmosphere with good amounts of BL shear and storm relative helicity being present. While the rain and clouds will keep heating substantially diminished...weak MLCAPEs peaking at around 500 j/kg and LCLs generally below 2kft could enable brief spinners with any stronger convective cell. Something to monitor going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Friday and Saturday thunderstorms in Illinois are getting more interesting, but still lots of questions. Friday a short wave will eject out of the central Plains. If timing is correct, NAM shows a little meso-low in Illinois. Heights are rising slightly, but at least the cap is not insurmountable on Friday. Might be locally higher low level shear just east of that low. Saturday the main system comes out. Should be a warm front and/or outflow boundary draped over Illinois from prior rain. If timing is right the surface low and warm front would promote favorable wind profiles for severe thunderstorms Saturday. EDIT: 12Z Euro is a train wreck Saturday. It is one-and-done Friday with low press in Illinois. Hope the GFS is right with 2 days, but yeah GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Hook on the storm near Wright-Patterson AFB is nuts from TDAY, confirmed tornado there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 WTF happened to the radar last couple scans? ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 922 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 922 PM EDT, A TORNADO-PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: WTF happened to the radar last couple scans? ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 922 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO... * UNTIL 945 PM EDT. * AT 922 PM EDT, A TORNADO-PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE AIR. Radar is having issues with reflectivity, there is or was a tornado there though, a strong one at that. You could see the strong couplet on Dayton's TWR radar very clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 still is EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 929 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 OHC109-250145- /O.CON.KILN.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170525T0145Z/ MIAMI OH- 929 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY... AT 929 PM EDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED FOUR MILES WEST OF NEW CARLISLE, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. RADAR SHOWS TORNADO DEBRIS IN THE AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: if that whole thing was on the ground under the right side of the wall cloud ...it was big.....looks rather far away from this camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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