HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Saturday night is something to watch for our next chance of severe. Instability and shear look alright, same with Mid Level Lapse Rates, especially around Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2017 Author Share Posted April 12, 2017 The jet position this weekend looks more like something from late Spring or Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 From this evening's AFD from Cleveland... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Warm front will lift toward the region on Friday with showers and a few thunderstorms possible late friday night into Saturday. At some point Saturday afternoon the showers/thunderstorms will lift northeast eventually clearing NW PA Saturday evening. We will then be dry until a cold front moves into the area on Sunday. The threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Sunday afternoon and evening. We will be monitoring this potential over the next couple days. The showers/thunderstorms should clear the region after midnight Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Not sure on its level of destabilization into this region, but that trough the 12z Euro has next Wednesday/Thursday looks like it would have some level of severe threat into the sub-forum. Nice open wave with a 70+ kt H5 max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 15, 2017 Share Posted April 15, 2017 Some risk for severe the next two days in the region, but Tuesday looks like the next decent shot for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 There have been a lot of hail reports in Iowa. Most of it has been pea size, but one nasty cell dropped golfball to baseball size hail as it tracked just south of Waterloo. Now it's turning into a heavy rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Been a fun late afternoon/evening watching the towers boiling overhead. A few tiny cells popped nearby earlier. Now there's quite the light show in the northern/northwestern sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Torrential downpour at the moment. Just had some wind gusts approaching 50mph. Surprised me since we were well behind the outflow/gust front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Quite the interesting looking warm front setup from IA into western and central IL on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good agreement overall on the 12z operational guidance. Excellent directional shear with backed surface flow, southwest at 850 and west or even west-northwest at 500, along with dew points pooled into the 60s along the front. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 16, 2017 Author Share Posted April 16, 2017 44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Quite the interesting looking warm front setup from IA into western and central IL on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Pretty good agreement overall on the 12z operational guidance. Excellent directional shear with backed surface flow, southwest at 850 and west or even west-northwest at 500, along with dew points pooled into the 60s along the front. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Indeed. Worth watching. Position of the surface low during the day on Wednesday suggests that there shouldn't be much resistance to that front sliding down the lake, so a good chunk of northern IL may be out of the game as the guidance is suggesting... at least until perhaps overnight into Thursday when it may come north given progged surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 I'll just leave this here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'll just leave this here... A bit contaminated but the area around that sounding is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 Substantial increase in instability on the new 18z NAM. Definitely a potent conditional threat. Ongoing convection/cloud debris is a concern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2017 Author Share Posted April 17, 2017 00z NAM has more of a threat in northern IL on Wednesday on this run. Quicker/northward surface low doesn't allow as much of a southward push of the cold/lake enhanced front, which brings a significant threat into at least southern Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 0Z NAM would pose a pretty significant severe weather threat in Northern Illinois, and at least some elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 0z NAM is definitely sig. Have a strong MCS develop Tues evening in NE/SD, which races ENE into WI/N. IL by Wed afternoon. Nice pressure couplet with that as well. Then you have afternoon/evening supercell threat along the outflow enhanced warm front in E. IA/N. IL. Some very nice soundings in N. IL. Might be some convective feedback though with that MCS thought messing with pressure fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2017 Author Share Posted April 17, 2017 I'm skeptical of pooling upper 60s dewpoints near the warm front... perhaps if it was a few weeks later... but even something like 63 in that shear environment would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I'm skeptical of pooling upper 60s dewpoints near the warm front... perhaps if it was a few weeks later... but even something like 63 in that shear environment would be good. Upper 60s is probably overdone, but I will say things have greened up nicely and moisture would pool on the boundaries. I could see 65, but I wouldn't be floored if it were higher if we have a stronger LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 The low-level jet stays frisky all day Wednesday, so I could definitely see that Plains MCS making it across the Mississippi during the afternoon. Going to be quite interesting when the 3km NAM comes into range I think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Latest runs have shifted west with a weaker surface low not backing low level winds much. That would suggest a less discrete storm mode than what the NAM was showing yesterday (if models were even breaking out any precip in warm sector that is). Best environment is near sfc low in IA on newest runs but short window given how close cold air is from sharp warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Wednesday is interesting to say at least in the IA,IL area. If you get those storms to ride along the warm front could spell some big trouble. Further east on Thursday across most eastern part of sub-forum OH/PA looks interesting to me also. Since i will be out an about working out in East OH, maybe i could get into one the good storms and get some good video or pictures. I think both days on Wednesday and Thursday could have a decent amount of severe weather and some tornadoes thrown in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 This has shown up in several runs. Believe the end of april might be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Well, at 240 hrs anything goes. But it is something to be watched in successive model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 After reviewing more data, GFS has been consistent the past 3 days with a large scale trough in the Apr 29-30th range. Euro is not quite in range but has a large trough over the plains at hour 240. CFS has been throwing a signal as well. CIPS also shows widespread severe at hour 240. Im sure someone with more knowledge of teleconnection and general patterns can chime in but there is a pretty strong signal from all the models ive seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KG4KBU Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions? Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Just now, KG4KBU said: As for next weeks threat when does it affect the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions? Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk Still a while out so timing cant be nailed down...Sometime around april 27-29 IMO. Then again this all could just disappear in the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KG4KBU Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Still a while out so timing cant be nailed down...Sometime around april 27-29 IMO. Then again this all could just disappear in the next run. Would we know more about timing around friday or saturday of this week coming up? Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, KG4KBU said: Would we know more about timing around friday or saturday of this week coming up? Sent from my Z956 using Tapatalk I'd say around sunday or monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KG4KBU Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Ok thanksSent from my Z956 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 12z Euro had an incredible look for day 9 for the OV. Definitely something to monitor going forward. I don't think either us or the plains escapes the next 10 days without a significant event, potentially both regions could get one if the 12z Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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