snowlover2 Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Marginal risk was added for the northern half of IN into SW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Looks like I may have some elevated hailers heading Indpls way from the nw. Warned to half dollar size now in Warren County. Good symbolic start to what may be an active spring season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Golfball size warned cell on sw edge of elevated storm complex nw of Indpls area and sw of LAF as DMC is strong and low level moisture is advecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2017 Author Share Posted March 20, 2017 Baseball size hail in Vermilion county Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Had pea-sized that about covered one half of the ground from that warned cell that just went by a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Heart of storm's hail core passed sw of me by Lawrence then on se to Greenfield. Just house rattling thunder here IMBY. Mainly quarter size in many reports. Only 49 degrees here. Can't believe how warm it is to the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Had some decent storms and small hail here with the Sunday night activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 NIU's Gil Sebenste mentioning the possibility of svr storms and tornadoes across se IA and central IL this Sat. afternoon Mar. 25 in today's wx discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 24, 2017 Author Share Posted March 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: NIU's Gil Sebenste mentioning the possibility of svr storms and tornadoes across se IA and central IL this Sat. afternoon Mar. 25 in today's wx discussion. I guess there could be some conditional threat if there's enough moisture/instability. We don't have a nice reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates though like we have seen in previous setups this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Apparently there was a tornado in northeastern Missouri earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Tornado warning west of Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Tornado warning west of Columbus. Heck of a time for ILN radar to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Slight risk for southern areas tomorrow. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR/LA NORTHEAST TO OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys northward to the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough amplifies across the western US, an upstream impulse initially over the southern/central Plains will eject northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. To the south of this impulse, a more subtle lobe of ascent will progress east/northeastward towards the Tennessee Valley. The surface response will feature low pressure advancing northeast away from the Ozarks, reaching the lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Trailing to its southwest, a cold front will push towards the mid/lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... As the aforementioned low tracks northeastward, warm/moist air will spread north/northeast across the Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching portions of the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, in response to warm advection associated with a low-level jet positioned over the region. While early convection and some veering of low-level flow may hamper the severe threat some later in the day, ascent associated with the primary wave, combined with modest heating should lead to sufficient destabilization. Guidance is also consistent with a plume of steeper lapse rates spreading across parts of the Mississippi Valley, lending greater confidence in the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Considering the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear, a few supercells/clusters and small bowing segments may organize by mid/late afternoon, yielding a threat for large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening hours. Farther north towards Indiana/Ohio, while buoyancy will be weaker, relatively unidirectional flow will likely yield a damaging-wind threat, and perhaps a brief tornado threat, with some bowing segments/clusters as they advance northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 That tornado warmed cell is just south of south Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Nothing confirmed on the ground yet but there was a funnel cloud near Hilliard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Nothing confirmed on the ground yet but there was a funnel cloud near Hilliard. just tried to look at ILN radar to find out what is going on. KILN RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN INTO MONDAY (3/27). A NEW PART HAS BEEN ORDERED AND IS IN TRANSIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 ...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO... Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Near Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 19 hours ago, CoachLB said: Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 ...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO... Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. Confirmed https://www.weather.gov/iln/20170326_williamsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Interesting radar feature in eastern Indiana tonight. It has that tropical eye look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 22 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: Interesting radar feature in eastern Indiana tonight. It has that tropical eye look to it. Mesolow, it was pretty wrapped up earlier too. Sometimes if there is instability around, those things could produce tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Today's long range convective outlook (March 30) from SPC is already mentioning the possibility of a rather significant svr episode for the Plains and Mississippi Valley areas this coming Tuesday and Wednesday April 4 and 5 which would certainly affect our sub forum if recent runs of the GFS are to be believed. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 Will have to watch moisture return but midweek could offer some severe potential. Here is a forecast sounding from central/southern IN, for instance. It looks like another setup with pretty decent mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Wednesday on the last couple of Euro runs has had the hallmarks aloft of a pretty widespread severe wx outbreak (can't describe it any other way really). May extend north towards the OV, but Dixie looks especially volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Couldn't agree more this has been shown off and on on the models, been getting fairly consistent trend in the past day or two. Wednesday looks like an classic spring time widespread severe weather outbreak type of set up. Areas from Indiana,Kentucky, Ohio, into Western PA (Upper OV) down to the Dixie Alley need to watch this set up. The day 4-8 SPC outlook has Thursday in the Mid Atlantic. Feeling they will have an Day 4 area for areas mentioned above. Monday evening and night in E Kentucky, S Ohio, WV, SW PA (Ohio River Basin) area could also have some thunderstorm potential, maybe severe threat but likely marginal at this time unless something changes rapidly but this system coming to the south that will be severe maker on the Gulf Coast deepens and moves over the area with a decent low level jet despite time of day, an few wind reports or an tornado or two wouldn't shock me at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 NAM 3-km coming in very wet over the next 48 hours, has widespread 1-1.5" rainfall totals over a large portion of the sub. Further south it delivers a gut punch to the developing drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Wednesday still looks fairly interesting in OH/IN/W PA/KY/WV area. This could be fairly significant but many questions still exist? An threat could be needed soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 Late weekend/early week should have a severe threat in the region. Looks like a pretty nice EML for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Late weekend/early week should have a severe threat in the region. Looks like a pretty nice EML for starters. On vacation starting Saturday, so I plan on going out to the plains for Sunday and then chase both days as long as the GFS isn't right and the system flies east, then I will only get Sunday in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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