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2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

NIU's  Gil Sebenste mentioning the possibility of svr storms and tornadoes across se IA and central IL this Sat. afternoon Mar. 25 in today's wx discussion.

I guess there could be some conditional threat if there's enough moisture/instability. We don't have a nice reservoir of steep mid level lapse rates though like we have seen in previous setups this year.

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Slight risk for southern areas tomorrow.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR/LA
   NORTHEAST TO OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the lower
   Mississippi and Tennessee valleys northward to the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   As a mid-level trough amplifies across the western US, an upstream
   impulse initially over the southern/central Plains will eject
   northeastward towards the Ohio Valley. To the south of this impulse,
   a more subtle lobe of ascent will progress east/northeastward
   towards the Tennessee Valley. The surface response will feature low
   pressure advancing northeast away from the Ozarks, reaching the
   lower Great Lakes Tuesday morning. Trailing to its southwest, a cold
   front will push towards the mid/lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
   As the aforementioned low tracks northeastward, warm/moist air will
   spread north/northeast across the Mississippi Valley, eventually
   reaching portions of the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and a few
   thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
   in response to warm advection associated with a low-level jet
   positioned over the region. While early convection and some veering
   of low-level flow may hamper the severe threat some later in the
   day, ascent associated with the primary wave, combined with modest
   heating should lead to sufficient destabilization. Guidance is also
   consistent with a plume of steeper lapse rates spreading across
   parts of the Mississippi Valley, lending greater confidence in the
   potential for some severe thunderstorms. Considering the presence of
   35-40 kt of effective shear, a few supercells/clusters and small
   bowing segments may organize by mid/late afternoon, yielding a
   threat for large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a
   tornado or two through the evening hours.

   Farther north towards Indiana/Ohio, while buoyancy will be weaker,
   relatively unidirectional flow will likely yield a damaging-wind
   threat, and perhaps a brief tornado threat, with some bowing
   segments/clusters as they advance northeast. 

 

day2otlk_1730.gif.c820cc29b18a0e52e648c66ad2c82b4a.gif

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nothing confirmed on the ground yet but there was a funnel cloud near Hilliard.

just tried to look at ILN radar to find out what is going on.

KILN RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN INTO MONDAY (3/27). A NEW PART HAS BEEN ORDERED AND IS IN TRANSIT.
 
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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO...

Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey
on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. 

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19 hours ago, CoachLB said:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1058 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...STORM SURVEY PLANNED ON MONDAY FOR THE AREA NEAR WILLIAMSBURG IN CLERMONT COUNTY OHIO...

Due to recent severe weather in our area, the National Weather Service office in Wilmington OH plans to conduct a damage survey
on Monday. We will be in contact with emergency managers from Clermont County to determine where to survey. 

Confirmed

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20170326_williamsburg

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22 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

Interesting radar feature in eastern Indiana tonight. It has that tropical eye look to it. 

 

radar.png

Mesolow, it was pretty wrapped up earlier too. Sometimes if there is instability around, those things could produce tornadoes.

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Today's long range convective outlook (March 30) from SPC is already mentioning the possibility of a rather significant svr episode for the Plains and Mississippi Valley areas this coming Tuesday and Wednesday April 4 and 5 which would certainly affect our sub forum if recent runs of the GFS are to be believed.  Something to watch.

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Couldn't agree more this has been shown off and on on the models, been getting fairly consistent trend in the past day or two. Wednesday looks like an classic spring time widespread severe weather outbreak type of set up. Areas from Indiana,Kentucky, Ohio, into Western PA (Upper OV) down to the Dixie Alley need to watch this set up. The day 4-8 SPC outlook has Thursday in the Mid Atlantic. Feeling they will have an Day 4 area for areas mentioned above.

Monday evening and night in E Kentucky, S Ohio, WV, SW PA (Ohio River Basin) area could also have some thunderstorm potential, maybe severe threat but likely marginal at this time unless something changes rapidly but this system coming to the south that will be severe maker on the Gulf Coast deepens and moves over the area with a decent low level jet despite time of day, an few wind reports or an tornado or two wouldn't shock me at all

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Late weekend/early week should have a severe threat in the region.

Looks like a pretty nice EML for starters.

On vacation starting Saturday, so I plan on going out to the plains for Sunday and then chase both days as long as the GFS isn't right and the system flies east, then I will only get Sunday in.

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