Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 I think I will gust 50+ mph if any remotely organized line moves through, even with the putrid instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 New 3km NAM came in with slightly better surface instability compared to previous runs from eastern IA down into MO. HRRR, and HRRRx have been showing relatively decent low-level cape as well, so perhaps the 3km is catching up a bit. We're still talking about cape in the 500-800J/kg range, so nothing too exciting. As Hoosier pointed out the strong wind fields right off the deck could easily get mixed down with any of the storms. Always love to see the rapidly strengthening surface low as well. 3km NAM at 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New 3km NAM came in with slightly better surface instability compared to previous runs from eastern IA down into MO. HRRR, and HRRRx have been showing relatively decent low-level cape as well, so perhaps the 3km is catching up a bit. We're still talking about cape in the 500-800J/kg range, so nothing too exciting. As Hoosier pointed out the strong wind fields right off the deck could easily get mixed down with any of the storms. Always love to see the rapidly strengthening surface low as well. 3km NAM at 01z. I think there's a decent chance the risk area gets expanded northward. The NAM(s) might be fine to use for the convection/evolution, but they once again look too cool with temps tomorrow afternoon... which means that the temps tomorrow evening are likely to be higher than those models suggest. Higher temps/somewhat better near sfc lapse rates = easier to mix down some severe gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 As others have already mentioned, with low cape, nice wind fields and mid-upper 50 DP's, could see some isolated severe wind threat in portions of IA/IL/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 No northward expansion on the day 1 outlook... kinda surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No northward expansion on the day 1 outlook... kinda surprising. That was a pretty lazy interpretation of the event by those forecasters. Pretty disappointing. I wouldn't be surprised if in later outlooks a slight is needed from parts of eastern MO up into central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Forecast soundings in the Mississippi River area actually look decent later. Potential is there in eastern IA/northwest IL for something greater than suggested, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Front timing has slowed down by 1-2hrs compared to yesterday's model guidance. This places areas like Cedar Rapids, Fairfield IA, and Kirksville MO back in the game. Nice to see the bump in probs on the new outlook. EDIT: Just realized this will be (hopefully) the last time we go without the aid of the more advanced GOES-16 data during a severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 That rapidly deepening surface low raises a few red flags. It's one of the things that was missing in many of the higher-category outlooked events that underperformed this past spring. Could be one of those days where "just enough" instability in spots gets the job done. Not much precip around on radar, although still overcast across the region there are some thin spots over IA/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 Not 100% certain but I think 12/23/15 was the last time there was a December slight risk in any part of Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Line has formed quite nicely from Iowa down into Missouri. The storms popped earlier than what most of the guidance had been indicating, so that favors areas much further west than what was shown yesterday and previous days. Big question is how long will the storms maintain themselves before the instability axis craps the bed this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Not 100% certain but I think 12/23/15 was the last time there was a December slight risk in any part of Wisconsin. You were correct (as well as the hrrr) in the need to expand the slight farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Cell heading for Keokuk is looking interesting for a bit. Might be the lone cell to get a TW sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 One of the heavier cells within the line moved over me. The rain was quite heavy and there was one good flash/boomer, but the wind was calm. I picked up a quick 0.30" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Ho hum....how soon before these cells outrun the meager instability axis or will kinetics take over to provide a lifeline? Not expecting much by the time these things get to IN. And unless I am mistaken the current low pressure over nw WI is not as deep as previously modeled for that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Stuff in Iowa has been sub severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Ho hum....how soon before these cells outrun the meager instability axis or will kinetics take over to provide a lifeline? Not expecting much by the time these things get to IN. And unless I am mistaken the current low pressure over nw WI is not as deep as previously modeled for that location. There might be less surface based instability. I was pulling HRRR forecast soundings earlier that had about 500 J/kg in eastern IA and mesoanalysis only has a couple hundred J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 SPC expects no eastward extension of current watch or new watch issuance. On to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just got some rumbles here in Madison. Probably the last ones of 2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krfd Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Small plane crash on approach at RFD about an hour ago, media reporting pilot was unable to maintain control due to wind. Obs at rfd around 6pm says 20mph gusting to 30mph, so nothing too crazy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, krfd said: Small plane crash on approach at RFD about an hour ago, media reporting pilot was unable to maintain control due to wind. Obs at rfd around 6pm says 20mph gusting to 30mph, so nothing too crazy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Could've been significant shear on descent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Picked up 0.05" from a very brief heavy downpour. No thunder. Dew has already dropped 7 degrees in the last 15 mins, from 57 to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, krfd said: Small plane crash on approach at RFD about an hour ago, media reporting pilot was unable to maintain control due to wind. Obs at rfd around 6pm says 20mph gusting to 30mph, so nothing too crazy. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Depends on the plane, the pilot, the wind direction and the objects around the runway that could deflect or "tunnel" the wind. Just because the reported wind was 20 gusting to 30 doesn't mean a gust to 40 can't happen in the pilots "little" airspace. Or as Hoosier said, depending on the condition, a small vortex of gusts shifting aft of the aircraft reduces true airspeed by 10 15 mph, your on the ground. A 30mph crosswind landing in just about any aircraft presents challenges. 20-30 crossing the runway at certain angles exceeds the ratings of many small private aircraft. In my early days of flying I brought a 172 down in a 20mph crosswind about 70 degrees off the nose and damn near flipped it. Had an unexpected gust of 40 about 20 feet from my flare point. Had to cram the pedal into the wind, jammed the power full and cross controlled the wings to keep lift equalized. Then wished I had an extra pair of pants in the cabin! Lesson learned and that's what flying's all about. I personally will go to one of my pre-planned alternate airports with the winds 30 degrees or less off of the nose on final if I feel uncomfortable in a strong crosswind landing scenario now. It surprises most people how vulnerable, especially light private aircraft, are to light to moderate winds you would enjoy flying a kite in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 DVN confirmed an EF-2 touched down last night near the MO/IA border west of Keokuk. Makes the 36th confirmed tor of 2017 in the cwa. http://www.weather.gov/dvn/Severe_Storms_12_4_2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: DVN confirmed an EF-2 touched down last night near the MO/IA border west of Keokuk. Makes the 36th confirmed tor of 2017 in the cwa. http://www.weather.gov/dvn/Severe_Storms_12_4_2017 I hate being critical, but that's pretty bad to miss a tornado (no tornado warning) that was on the ground for 15 minutes. Is that in that infamous radar hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I hate being critical, but that's pretty bad to miss a tornado (no tornado warning) that was on the ground for 15 minutes. Is that in that infamous radar hole? Yeah that's basically right in the middle of the radar hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I hate being critical, but that's pretty bad to miss a tornado (no tornado warning) that was on the ground for 15 minutes. Is that in that infamous radar hole? Kirksville MO needs a radar like yesterday. I mean it is a horrendous radar hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Kirksville MO needs a radar like yesterday. I mean it is a horrendous radar hole. They pretty much only have them at NWS locations, right? The only exception I can think of in this region is the one in Evansville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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