IWXwx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Although not a proficient producer, I got a little lightning action on 11/5 while chasing the IN/OH EF-2. I'm always game for some boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 HRRR is a bit bullish on instability, with an area of 1000 SBCAPE in Missouri at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 SPC shifted the marginal area north some especially for IN/W OH. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms capable of marginal hail or damaging wind gusts will be possible Saturday mainly over the Ohio Valley region. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley during the day, with a deepening surface low moving from St. Louis to Lake Erie. A rapid increase of winds aloft will occur with a 100 kt midlevel jet into the OH Valley by 00Z. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with southwesterly surface winds bringing a narrow plume of mid 50s to lower 60s dewpoints northward into IL and IN. Warm air advection in the low-levels will further be augmented by a 50-60 kt low-level jet. Despite the favorable synoptic scale setup, instability will be minimal, with only a few marginally severe storms expected during the day. ...Mid MS into the OH Valleys... An area of mainly elevated thunderstorms is expected to occur early in the day, perhaps across eastern MO, and then developing eastward across IL and IN, with lift aided by warm air advection. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for marginally severe hail. Other activity, perhaps surface based, will occur near the low, and southward along the cold front. The main detriment to a more substantial severe wind event appears to be the lack of heating, with weak low-level lapse rates. This should keep warm sector activity immediately along the front. Strong wind gusts will occur with the frontal passage, and some of this could be convectively enhanced. Farther south into TN, MS, and AL, instability will be even less, with a capping inversion preceding the front. Here too, some convectively augmented wind gusts will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ..Jewell.. 11/17/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Probably safe to have the broad marginal risk. One can envision a way this exceeds expectations (if a well organized line were to move through with that strong ambient flow and not much stability in the low levels) but it's such a fine line in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I'm not extremely optimistic for surface based storms or a severe threat this far north, but can't help but get a bit excited about the potential for some training storms on the nose of the very strong LLJ. With that said, models often seem to underdo the temps in the warm sector during the cold season when there's strong WAA, and some of the shorter range guidance suggests surface based instability and much less of an inversion as far north as I-70 or so in IN and OH, so it wouldn't surprise me if some areas see some damaging winds with any storms into central and southern IN and OH. The HRRR also shows some modest rotating storms north of the warm front, so if the mid-level lapse rates aren't completely overturned the threat for some marginal hail could be there a little farther north...though I'm not extremely impressed looking at some of the forecast soundings north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Good chance of hail this a.m. in central IL and IN with some exceeding svr criteria along the WF per SPC meso. 61 here in Indy metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 There's a report of a roof collapse with injuries at a Walmart in Frankfort, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Also possible damage to the high school there in Frankfort on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: Also possible damage to the high school there in Frankfort on the east side. I wasn't monitoring as it was happening but looking at that line, wonder if there was an embedded tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wasn't monitoring as it was happening but looking at that line, wonder if there was an embedded tor. Reflectivity did look more cellular at the time, but I did not look at velocity. Am more concerned in near term for se IL and sw IN with breaks in a QLCS line approaching the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Inside the Walmart, via Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Event performed slightly better than I thought. Slight worthy in the end for sure.Nice November QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 EF0 northeast of Dayton, IN (east of LAF). No update on the Frankfort storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 Looks like Frankfort will be surveyed tomorrow. From the limited number of pics I saw, some of the damage characteristics were more typical of what you'd see in a tornado (projectile 2x4 through a car window, debris wrapped around power lines, etc.) but that stuff is not really conclusive so we'll see how they characterize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 Survey determined the Frankfort area damage to be straight line winds up to 85 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 The tornado in Indiana has not been added to this map for some reason, but all in all, it seems like the southern end of this (like TN/AL) overperformed the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 A few more weak tornadoes have been confirmed from the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Would you consider Nov. 18th to have been a tornado outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 46 minutes ago, Chinook said: Would you consider Nov. 18th to have been a tornado outbreak? Personally, I think it's questionable, especially since it's easier to confirm the brief tornadoes nowadays. I would call it a severe weather outbreak though, even though it's not the most impressive thing we've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 GFS continues to intrigue me around December 5th. 990 low over Minnesota. Dew points mid 50s-60 from the gulf to Chicago. Sounding is not impressive at this time with a pretty substandard wind profile(vbv). It's obviously a long ways out... If anything this might hold the potential for a high shear/low cape event. I've had my eye on this time frame for a few days now and figured it might be appropriate to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 Might be something to watch but it's so far out that it's kinda hard to speculate. Ideally would like to see a longer period of moisture return prior to the system ejecting out but nonetheless we end up with decent dews by cool season standards (as currently progged, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 You would think one of these days something would pop with all this abnormal warmth. I remember some people commenting in the days leading up to 11/17/13 that you don't get 70s that far north in mid-Nov without paying for it. Well here we are getting 60s even further north than that in late Nov and into Dec. So far everything is/looks to be moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Well, looks like a possibility for at least a lower end severe threat Monday into Tuesday for a chunk of the region. Instability is rather meager but wind fields are fairly impressive, so you know how that works in that even shallow rain/convection sometimes results in severe gusts. The ECMWF solution with the quicker bombing low would probably result in a slightly better threat, relatively speaking, but the thermodynamics just aren't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Wouldn't be surprised to see a marginal risk on the day 3 outlook. Still not much instability but there are winds up to 50-55 kts about 2,000 feet off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 11/17/13 made the CIPS analog list. Omg everybody freak lol. A few other dates on there with lesser severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Interesting (and annoying) that the 12Z GFS portrays the best instability over MN into northern WI. Gets up to over 800 j/kg at 18Z near the Twin Cities. Where are systems like this in May/June? >100 knots at 500mb, 50s dews well into WI in Dec., and the best we can do is a general thunder risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Interesting (and annoying) that the 12Z GFS portrays the best instability over MN into northern WI. Gets up to over 800 j/kg at 18Z near the Twin Cities. Where are systems like this in May/June? >100 knots at 500mb, 50s dews well into WI in Dec., and the best we can do is a general thunder risk? That area has better mid level lapse rates. Pretty good lapse rates actually. I think they will probably pull the trigger on at least a marginal risk at some point. It may be a long one too from the area you mentioned (MN/WI) southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Can we get an order of this in late March or April please? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2017 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may produce strong, gusty winds from parts of the southern Plains to the mid Mississippi Valley Monday evening. ...Far eastern Oklahoma to the mid Mississippi Valley... A broad zone of cyclonic mid-level flow will expand eastward across the central US Monday, as a potent impulse lifts from the central Plains northeastward to the upper Great Lakes and another dives south across the Dakotas. The resultant surface pattern will feature a deepening cyclone lifting northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley with an attendant cold front sweeping east towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. Ahead of this front, modest low-level moisture (e.g., surface dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will stream north/northeastward during the day. Surface heating will not be particularly impressive across the pre-frontal warm sector, but a narrow corridor of surface-based CAPE around 250-600 J/kg will likely materialize from eastern Oklahoma to parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. In turn, a thin/low-topped band of convection is expected to develop by the evening hours and accelerate eastward with the front. Despite the meager buoyancy, considerable low/mid-level flow upwards of 40-60 kt may support a few stronger gusts in the heartiest of convective elements, primarily during the evening hours. Additionally, the strength of low-level shear suggests a tornado cannot be ruled out. In turn, marginal probabilities have been introduced. ..Picca.. 12/03/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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