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2017 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There's a surprise.  I did notice a bit of a secondary instability zone was progged in that area though.

No lightning with those storms (must have been insufficient lapse rates and it doesn't help that the area had cooled off from previous rains) but enough shear and instability to produce a tornado (or at the very least some significant winds).

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I get the sense that something more significant severe wx wise might affect the central US towards mid/the third week of October. Consistent signal among the ensembles for a very strong Pacific jet and a continued western trough, which should allow repeated lee cyclogenesis assuming everything isn't too far off the mark (and the ridge doesn't become too dominant in the SE).

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Day 5 for the parts of KS and the mid-Missouri valley. Good call, Andy. 

SPC Discussion

Quote

...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
   The medium range models including the ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMet
   maintain a southwest mid-level flow pattern across much of the U.S.
   on Friday. The models are forecasting moisture return to take place
   from the southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.
   Thunderstorm development will be possible Friday night along the
   northern edge of a moist air mass from the southern High Plains
   northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Although
   this activity may be elevated in nature, hail will be possible with
   the stronger cells. On Saturday, the models move the upper-level
   trough eastward but vary on the timing of the system with the ECMWF
   considerably slower than the other three solutions. The three faster
   solutions of the GFS, Canadian and UKMET, and to a lesser degree,
   the ECMWF, would favor a severe threat in the central Plains and mid
   Missouri Valley Saturday evening into the overnight. Confidence is
   great enough to add a 15 percent contour from central Kansas into
   southern Iowa.

 

DMX's 3:09am AFD Tidbit

Quote

Upper wind fields with the stronger Euro depict a possible severe weather outbreak just east of our area into Illinois/Indiana/ Michigan while the GFS is farther northeast with the better coincident wind maxes aloft. With such a wide range of possibilities...confidence remains low into the weekend for many of the main forecast elements.

 

Latest model suites do favor S IA and N MO, IMO. 

day5prob.gif

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On 10/8/2017 at 2:24 PM, Hoosier said:

Yeah, there were some wind reports in eastern Michigan, but nothing tornadic as of yet.

171007_rpts_filtered.gif

 

Looks like the storms pretty much split Detroit proper, but overall it wasn't a bad event for October.

You know it's been a pretty awful season for severe weather even the best event comes in October of all times. :lol:

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8 hours ago, nwburbschaser said:

I believe Andy was referring to the potential coming up later next week and beyond, not the threat for this weekend. 

That does look like a nice Pac jet coming in. It should be an interesting time period to follow severe wise. 

I sort of included both potentials (with the mid/third week of Oct thing) although with more emphasis on the second wave/jet streak that looks to make landfall.

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New D4. 

Quote

The medium range models including the ECWMF, GFS, Canadian and UKmet move an upper-level trough across the Rockies and into the Great Plains Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the system, a low-level jet is forecast to strengthen from the southern Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the western edge of the low-level jet Saturday evening persisting through the overnight period. The combination of instability and deep-layer shear along this corridor appear sufficient for a severe threat with isolated large hail and wind damage possible.

 

day4prob.gif

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Thought that I'd throw this in here. I've seen politicians that blow harder than this, but hey, a tornado's a tornado.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR SUNMAN INDIANA...

Location...Near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana 
Date...October 7 2017
Estimated Start Time...905 PM EDT
Estimated End Time...906 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65-70 MPH
Maximum Path Width...100 Yards
Path Length...2.7 Miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...39.2268 N / 85.1066 W
Ending lat/Lon...39.24154 N / 85.05855 W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has confirmed a
tornado near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana on
October 7 2017.

The first evidence of damage and therefor the determined start of
the touchdown track was on the westernmost end of Industrial Drive
near Sunman. Trees of 4 to 5 inches in diameter were snapped about
halfway up the trunks. 

At one property on Industrial Drive, barn doors were damaged by 
the tornado. At another property on the same road, a trailer was 
pushed off its foundation. Tree damage was also observed along 
Industrial Drive, extending to properties on Brick Yard Drive.

On Meridian Street about a half mile south of Sunman, a
tractor-trailer was damaged by the tornado. Several trees were
observed to be damaged in a wooded area east of Meridian Street
and north of Edgewood Lane.

The tornado is believed to have crossed the Ripley/Dearborn county
line in the vicinity of N Dearborn Road.

The most significant structural damage was observed at a property
on Kruse Lane in Dearborn County. A barn had its roof partially
removed and several walls were damaged. According to the resident
at this location, metal roofing from the barn was found about
three-quarters of a mile away, and insulation was carried as much
as four miles downwind. There was also tree damage found at this
location.

The last visible sign of damage and presumed end point of the
tornado path was about a quarter mile north of the intersection of
Fackler and North Dearborn Roads. There were 4 to 6 inch diameter
tree limbs down in this location. 
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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Thought that I'd throw this in here. I've seen politicians that blow harder than this, but hey, a tornado's a tornado.


Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
413 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR SUNMAN INDIANA...

Location...Near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana 
Date...October 7 2017
Estimated Start Time...905 PM EDT
Estimated End Time...906 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...65-70 MPH
Maximum Path Width...100 Yards
Path Length...2.7 Miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...39.2268 N / 85.1066 W
Ending lat/Lon...39.24154 N / 85.05855 W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington OH has confirmed a
tornado near Sunman in Ripley and Dearborn counties in Indiana on
October 7 2017.

The first evidence of damage and therefor the determined start of
the touchdown track was on the westernmost end of Industrial Drive
near Sunman. Trees of 4 to 5 inches in diameter were snapped about
halfway up the trunks. 

At one property on Industrial Drive, barn doors were damaged by 
the tornado. At another property on the same road, a trailer was 
pushed off its foundation. Tree damage was also observed along 
Industrial Drive, extending to properties on Brick Yard Drive.

On Meridian Street about a half mile south of Sunman, a
tractor-trailer was damaged by the tornado. Several trees were
observed to be damaged in a wooded area east of Meridian Street
and north of Edgewood Lane.

The tornado is believed to have crossed the Ripley/Dearborn county
line in the vicinity of N Dearborn Road.

The most significant structural damage was observed at a property
on Kruse Lane in Dearborn County. A barn had its roof partially
removed and several walls were damaged. According to the resident
at this location, metal roofing from the barn was found about
three-quarters of a mile away, and insulation was carried as much
as four miles downwind. There was also tree damage found at this
location.

The last visible sign of damage and presumed end point of the
tornado path was about a quarter mile north of the intersection of
Fackler and North Dearborn Roads. There were 4 to 6 inch diameter
tree limbs down in this location. 

Wow that's surprising. As I recall there never was a warning of any kind as those storms moved through just some special weather statements for winds up to 50mph.

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On 10/8/2017 at 6:03 AM, andyhb said:

I get the sense that something more significant severe wx wise might affect the central US towards mid/the third week of October. Consistent signal among the ensembles for a very strong Pacific jet and a continued western trough, which should allow repeated lee cyclogenesis assuming everything isn't too far off the mark (and the ridge doesn't become too dominant in the SE).

Unfortunately for those of us looking for some October chases, doesn't look like it's going to pan out this way. Tomorrow looks meh with a low probability of photogenic supercells/tornadoes, and SPC not seeing anything in their day 4-8.

Quote

Large-scale pattern, during the medium-range period, will become increasingly hostile toward organized severe thunderstorm development. Dominant surface ridge over the Eastern States will force higher PW air mass off the continental US with only the FL Peninsula remaining seasonally moist within easterly flow regime along southern periphery of aforementioned ridge. In the absence of meaningful instability the potential for severe appears negligible next week.

I was on the other side of town at a birthday party when that random tornado hit my hometown last weekend. The chief meteorologist from the TV station I work at was also there (he works the morning shows Mon-Fri., as do I) and we were both geeking out over the returns on my RadarScope app. It actually hit only a couple blocks from my girlfriend's apartment, and a couple blocks more from the house where I grew up.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Looks pretty meh as modeled on today's runs*. Could see maybe just some low-topped wind producers ahead of a sweeping cold front, but the main surface low is waaaaaaaay the heck up in Canada.

*18z finally out to 168 with considerably more CAPE into the Midwest then the 12z, but then they call it the Happy Hour run for a reason. Still, the synoptic look screams driving cold front with limited if any window for sustained surface-based convection

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20 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said:

12z looks a lot better than previous runs for IL/maybe IN too. 

Yes falling much more in line with the Euro

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

One thing that has been modeled consistently is good mid level lapse rates.

Yeah pretty good pocket of instability with this one, Euro 1500-1800 J/kg SBCAPE at 18z to 00z. With a upper 60s/mid 60s surface profile.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yes falling much more in line with the Euro

Yeah pretty good pocket of instability with this one, Euro 1500-1800 J/kg SBCAPE at 18z to 00z. With a upper 60s/mid 60s surface profile.

Would still prefer to see the surface low not fly into Canada like that, but I wouldn't write it off just because of that.  Can't ignore a system that gets that kind of CAPE this far north in November.  That is not something that happens with regularity.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would still prefer to see the surface low not fly into Canada like that, but I wouldn't write it off just because of that.  Can't ignore a system that gets that kind of CAPE this far north in November.  That is not something that happens with regularity.

As long as there is the secondary low the potential is pretty good, the Euro was much stronger with the secondary low, and low level wind response as well.

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