Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wouldn't be surprised if the western edge of that gets expanded west a bit. Favorable frontal timing would support that notion with instability still a question. Though some uncertainty on exact evolution with some suggestion of activity (maybe the "main show"?) along a prefrontal trough. I would nudge the risk area west about 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Probably overdone but if this is realized tomorrow is going to surprise some, near Fort Wayne at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 The NAMs have been inching upward with the speed of moisture return from the south into IN/OH and SEMI over successive runs. Definitely a trend to monitor as the wind field is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Several areas of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley. CAPE values will be maximized at 1200 J/kg in Kentucky/Tennessee. Some deep layer shear values of 40-50 kt would make this worthy of a marginal risk or slight risk day. Obviously it's not your summertime 2000 J/kg but scattered severe weather reports certainly happen with higher shear values at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Probably overdone but if this is realized tomorrow is going to surprise some, near Fort Wayne at 00z That's not half bad. Certainly seems better than previous runs. It would get interesting if CAPE can approach 1000 with these wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's not half bad. Certainly seems better than previous runs. It would get interesting if CAPE can approach 1000 with these wind fields. Honestly with the warm sector being pretty open tomorrow I could see 750 J/kg being realized. Especially over Northern IN and NW OH, could be another enhanced pocket closer to Ohio River as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Off the 18z 3km NAM northeast of Fort Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 This is probably kind of obvious but with the lackluster mid level lapse rates, tomorrow is one of those days that it's really important to try to maximize low level warming/moisture return to have any shot of turning this into something higher than a marginal risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 It's kind of weird to think there could be a hurricane or tropical storm landfall and a (minor?) severe weather outbreak tomorrow night--they will be at about the same longitude, basically unconnected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 6 hours ago, Chinook said: It's kind of weird to think there could be a hurricane or tropical storm landfall and a (minor?) severe weather outbreak tomorrow night--they will be at about the same longitude, basically unconnected. Some area of the subforum will probably get in on severe chances and Nate remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 DVN mentioned a threat for brief tors in the early morning disco. Cape looks very limited, but the strong vort moving in should help make up for that. Low-level portion of forecast hodos have a nice sickle shape curve. Can certainly see DVN's concern, especially on the IL side. From DVN.. Today`s high-shear low-CAPE environment is conducive for brief spin- up tornadoes. But this is conditional on storms forming. Recent hi-res convective allowing models are showing sfc-based CAPE up to ~500 J/kg, +25 kts 0-1 km bulk shear, +125 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, and 0-3 km shear vectors of 30-35 kts with a decent perpendicular component to the potential convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 2% tor added from SEMI to S IN Quote ADDED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND CONSIDERED A SLIGHT RISK, BUT WILL DEFER ON A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO THE 20Z UPDATE. A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL IA WILL DECAY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD. A SWATH OF ROBUST INSOLATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN/OH/LOWER MI BETWEEN THE WARM CONVEYOR ATTENDANT TO THE FRONT AND A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME PRECEDING HURRICANE NATE ACROSS KY/TN. THIS DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS IN/LOWER MI. DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, BUT THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET MAY MITIGATE A GREATER SEVERE WIND RISK. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COMPARATIVELY RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN A COUPLE SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS FORMING WITH RISKS OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Been getting a good amount of sun here today. Should help with more destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Cold front has reached Chicago, real fun should start popping once it's crossed the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Had a good burst of wind with that initial rain band that just hit. I was stopped at a red light with the windows down and some leaves came flying into my car. Sort of hard to estimate for sure but I wouldn't be surprised if the gusts were near 50 mph briefly. Sadly, some of the more exciting "storm" action I have witnessed in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nice low-topped band of convection fired right over me earlier on the east side of the QC. Was pretty entertaining to watch evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nice line of storms in E IL/W IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Confirmed tornado a short time ago just northeast of Madison, Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Confirmed tornado a short time ago just northeast of Madison, Wisconsin. There's a surprise. I did notice a bit of a secondary instability zone was progged in that area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 How do you insert a Twitter link in here... had a post come across my feed that I wanted to share in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: How do you insert a Twitter link in here... had a post come across my feed that I wanted to share in here. There's an icon bar at the top of the reply box. The 5th one from the left that looks kinda like a paper clip is the one to use to insert a link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 https://twitter.com/TomCoomes/status/916800365374398465/photo/1 That is a shelf cloud picture coming from near South Bend, Indiana. Thought the picture would post right in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke75b Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's a surprise. I did notice a bit of a secondary instability zone was progged in that area though. Quite a bit of tree and sign damage on the east side of Madison. http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/nws-possible-tornado-reported-on-madison-s-east-side/article_1a1d1cb1-3cdf-520a-8cec-886ca8dbbc5b.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 If confirmed, would be the first October tornado in Wisconsin since 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If confirmed, would be the first October tornado in Wisconsin since 2013. There is now a storm report for it and a survey for tomorrow. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 07 2017 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0500 PM TORNADO MADISON 43.08N 89.38W 10/07/2017 DANE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT BASED ON RADAR SIGNATURES,LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS AND DAMAGE IMAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA, IT APPEARS A TORNADO DEVELOPED ON THE EAST SIDE OF MADISON, ON EAST WASHINGTON AVE AND MOVED NORTHEAST TOWARD SUN PRAIRIE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN HOW FAR THIS TORNADO TRAVELED. THERE IS ROOF AND TREE DAMAGE NOTED IN THE PICTURES. THE TIME IS AN ESTIMATE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE NWS WILL SEND SOMEONE OUT ON SUNDAY TO SURVEY THE DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 The line's bark was much worse than it's bite. Brief heavy rain blowing in sheets. However, the late afternoon winds preceding it were as strong or stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 What an intense storm even without thunder and lightning. Winds easily 50mph+ if not close to severe levels and torrential rains. Rain was blowing sideways for about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Well that was quite a surprise tornado warning. Definitely the most interesting thing to happen in the state since at least late july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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