Winter 2017-18 Disco

[CAPE]

I would take a +1 for met winter.

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What a difference 1 month can make. Not!

(Second map is a screen shot from the Saturday Summary)

 

From what the one guy off twitter said about the new Euro seasonal I posted,  that map looks to be a near carbon copy of the Euro.  Not that JB would ever cut and paste a Euro forecast (for the most part) and call it his own. Lol

[showmethesnow]

36 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What a difference 1 month can make. Not!

(Second map is a screen shot from the Saturday Summary)

 

Actually I think there is a fairly significant difference for our region between the two. If you follow the normal temps between the high and low anomalies that should give crude idea of where the mean storm track will set up for the winter. The September forecast tells me that we will quite often be fighting storm running to our west.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

From what the one guy off twitter said about the new Euro seasonal I posted,  that map looks to be a near carbon copy of the Euro.  Not that JB would ever cut and paste a Euro forecast (for the most part) and call it his own. Lol

It's the type of look you would expect during a Nina.  Kind of surprised JB. would go with it though because it is a hard look to try to hype for east coast snowstorms. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's the type of look you would expect during a Nina.  Kind of surprised JB. would go with it though because it is a hard look to try to hype for east coast snowstorms. 

Yeah, but he also has the 133% of snowfall line running along the Mason-Dixon. Not that 95/96 is in the cards, but there were major warmups between the cold and snowy periods. I think we'll see that again this year sans the historic snowfall numbers.  But as has been said before, compared to last winter, a typical Nina winter will feel cold and snowy. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It's the type of look you would expect during a Nina.  Kind of surprised JB. would go with it though because it is a hard look to try to hype for east coast snowstorms. 

Cfs and cansips both show an annoying WAR in Dec. We'll get our cold shots after it finishes raining with that look. 

I'm not seeing any signs of split flow on the seasonals. Looks like a typical northern stream dominant winter with a nw storm track.

I'm not taking anything as gospel but my expectations are in the right place. The good thing is that the chances of winter feeling like winter are better than the last 2 years. The bad thing is being on the cold side of juiced storms may be a battle. 

[Mason Dixon]

Lol at talking  storm tracks for the months of December through February on September 16th. Enjoy the beautiful weather we have now. Nobody has any clue what winter has in store 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

Lol at talking  storm tracks for the months of December through February on September 16th. Enjoy the beautiful weather we have now. Nobody has any clue what winter has in store 

A long list of previous weak or mod nina's disagree. Maybe not with predominant storm tracks but northern stream dominant winter with hard to come by big events isn't a clueless guess at all. Other than 95-96, you won't find many good nina winters in the MA. That's not random chance. It's climo. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, BTRWx said:

What a difference 1 month can make. Not!

(Second map is a screen shot from the Saturday Summary)

 

Doesn't mean a thing.  I don't remember those things being too accurate last year.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

A long list of previous weak or mod nina's disagree. Maybe not with predominant storm tracks but northern stream dominant winter with hard to come by big events isn't a clueless guess at all. Other than 95-96, you won't find many good nina winters in the MA. That's not random chance. It's climo. 

I'm fine with northern stream dominance if it can pump in the cold and a few clippers, maybe get lucky and get a little system to pass to our south. 

Edit: Or a juicy OV jumper running into a stout wedge

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually I think there is a fairly significant difference for our region between the two. If you follow the normal temps between the high and low anomalies that should give crude idea of where the mean storm track will set up for the winter. The September forecast tells me that we will quite often be fighting storm running to our west.

Storms to our west are fun if you can lock in cold with a NE high.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm fine with northern stream dominance if it can pump in the cold and a few clippers, maybe get lucky and get a little system to pass to our south. 

Edit: Or a juicy OV jumper running into a stout wedge

Totally agree. After suffering through two winters of warmth with only one real storm, a series of cold light events would be more than welcome if it happens. Even better would be a few cold events each month. Even if annual totals don't impress it would still be totally fine in my book.  You can never rule out a big event in any winter either. 

I'm not down on the prospects of a Nina. Except for strong ones we generally have periods of real winter with enough snowfall to cancel school a few times. Especially in Loudon. Lol. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Totally agree. After suffering through two winters of warmth with only one real storm, a series of cold light events would be more than welcome if it happens. Even better would be a few cold events each month. Even if annual totals don't impress it would still be totally fine in my book.  You can never rule out a big event in any winter either. 

I'm not down on the prospects of a Nina. Except for strong ones we generally have periods of real winter with enough snowfall to cancel school a few times. Especially in Loudon. Lol. 

I'm on the same page.  We've had some chances just miss us in past Ninas.  At some point you're gonna get a run of being on the right side of those. I remember a storm, lol, I think in Jan of 2013.  It was late Jan, legit cold, and put down about an inch of snow where not one flake melted. I remember Matt talking about how much he enjoyed it.  Get a winter with several cold 1-3" events and most of us will be happy.

[showmethesnow]

16 hours ago, Mason Dixon said:

Lol at talking  storm tracks for the months of December through February on September 16th. Enjoy the beautiful weather we have now. Nobody has any clue what winter has in store 

Let me put this in simpler terms for you. Cold anomalies sagging South in the plains suggest a trough. Warmer anomalies surging northward in the southeast suggest ridgeing. This configuration is bad for the east coast for snow chances. So while you can't nail down specific storm tracks at this time you can get a general sense of where they will predominantly be. Which is to our west. Again that is bad for our snow chances unless we luck out with front end. This look is a fairly typical look of a Nina of which we seem to be entering.

So considering that we are most likely entering a Nina the smart money will be placing their money on over in temps and under on snowfall and nine times out of ten be right. This doesn't even factor in other indices that aren't exactly promising. So for you to State that no one has a clue on the coming winter is probably far from the case. I thin many are well aware of what is incoming and are searching for reasons why this Nina may be an exception and not the norm.

[Mason Dixon]

31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Let me put this in simpler terms for you. Cold anomalies sagging South in the plains suggest a trough. Warmer anomalies surging northward in the southeast suggest ridgeing. This configuration is bad for the east coast for snow chances. So while you can't nail down specific storm tracks at this time you can get a general sense of where they will predominantly be. Which is to our west. Again that is bad for our snow chances unless we luck out with front end. This look is a fairly typical look of a Nina of which we seem to be entering.

So considering that we are most likely entering a Nina the smart money will be placing their money on over in temps and under on snowfall and nine times out of ten be right. This doesn't even factor in other indices that aren't exactly promising. So for you to State that no one has a clue on the coming winter is probably far from the case. I thin many are well aware of what is incoming and are searching for reasons why this Nina may be an exception and not the norm.

Other indices?? No one has any idea what state the NAO will be or will the AO be positive or negative. I am pretty sure if you guys looked at the pacific back in September of 1995 you would be throwing in the towel also. But to each his own I guess. 

[North Balti Zen]

No one is throwing in their towel. You can rest assured the thoughts of those you are reading on this thread are measured, and are simply reflecting the factors that will potentially dictate storm track and temp profiles. Of course we can score in this area in that set-up, but it will be longer odds than if it were a set-up like we saw ahead of, say, '09/10.

[Bob Chill]

55 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

Other indices?? No one has any idea what state the NAO will be or will the AO be positive or negative. I am pretty sure if you guys looked at the pacific back in September of 1995 you would be throwing in the towel also. But to each his own I guess. 

Sept 95 had a strongly positive pdo. If we had that right now my posts would be vastly different. And I'd be semi stoked. 

The pdo is fairly volatile but still moves in relatively long timescales. If the npac ssta plot looks like today in mid Nov, we could be in for some trouble during the first half of winter. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

You have to be around a while before you can properly interpret the real meaning of what a poster is trying to say.

Read for a while, learn the personalities.

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You have to be around a while before you can properly interpret the real meaning of what a poster is trying to say.

Read for a while, learn the personalities.

That and where the poster lives. Folks near, and especially north, of the Mason Dixon line do incredibly better in a Nina than those of us from Baltimore on south. In fact, the term 40N was coined with Nina's in mind.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That and where the poster lives. Folks near, and especially north, of the Mason Dixon line do incredibly better in a Nina than those of us from Baltimore on south. In fact, the term 40N was coined with Nina's in mind.

The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

 

[BTRWx]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

 

Most of us are screwed.

[WinterWxLuvr]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

 

[ravensrule]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

 

[snowman19]

On 9/17/2017 at 8:36 AM, showmethesnow said:

Let me put this in simpler terms for you. Cold anomalies sagging South in the plains suggest a trough. Warmer anomalies surging northward in the southeast suggest ridgeing. This configuration is bad for the east coast for snow chances. So while you can't nail down specific storm tracks at this time you can get a general sense of where they will predominantly be. Which is to our west. Again that is bad for our snow chances unless we luck out with front end. This look is a fairly typical look of a Nina of which we seem to be entering.

So considering that we are most likely entering a Nina the smart money will be placing their money on over in temps and under on snowfall and nine times out of ten be right. This doesn't even factor in other indices that aren't exactly promising. So for you to State that no one has a clue on the coming winter is probably far from the case. I thin many are well aware of what is incoming and are searching for reasons why this Nina may be an exception and not the norm.

The one consensus so far among all the climate models is a weak to moderate La Niña winter that is northern branch dominated. No split flow, non existent southern stream, so typical La Niña climo 

[Bob Chill]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The one consensus so far among all the climate models is a weak to moderate La Niña winter that is northern branch dominated. No split flow, non existent southern stream, so typical La Niña climo 

I see the same thing. Enso is almost always a primary driver for the conus once you cross neutral threshold. It's rare when it gets completely overwhelmed by something else. The best long lead logic is to just go with climo in general and see what kinds of signals emerge later in the fall to gauge what kind of variation we can expect. If HL blocking shows its face in late November then BN temps and BN precipitation is a fair call for Dec. 

Nina's are typically normal or drier than normal here. Even with blocking we struggle with organized precipitation. You are in a much better climo spot so friendly advice would be to tread lightly in this thread. 

[Bob Chill]

One data point we can easily track during late fall/early winter to see if the Conus is experiencing a nina type pattern is snowfall in the CO rockies. Because of all the different aspects of the main mountain ranges, CO is usually divided during Ninas and Ninos. Ninos favor the southern half of the State during the early season due to SW flow and southern stream moisture. Ninas favor the northern half of the State. This division can be stark too where the northern and southern halves of the State can be two different worlds. 

If we start seeing significant snowfall in the northern half compared to the southern half during Nov-Dec it's a good tipoff that a Nina pattern is in place. If I was pre-season booking a CO trip this year for Dec-Jan skiing I would definitely choose the northern half. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One data point we can easily track during late fall/early winter to see if the Conus is experiencing a nina type pattern is snowfall in the CO rockies. Because of all the different aspects of the main mountain ranges, CO is usually divided during Ninas and Ninos. Ninos favor the southern half of the State during the early season due to SW flow and southern stream moisture. Ninas favor the northern half of the State. This division can be stark too where the northern and southern halves of the State can be two different worlds. 

If we start seeing significant snowfall in the northern half compared to the southern half during Nov-Dec it's a good tipoff that a Nina pattern is in place. If I was pre-season booking a CO trip this year for Dec-Jan skiing I would definitely choose the northern half. 

Yep. Xmas ski trip...Nina go steamboat. Nino go telluride. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep. Xmas ski trip...Nina go steamboat. Nino go telluride. 

YEP! If you can't stand the gamble just take crested butte. They win both sides of ENSO more often than not. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I see the same thing. Enso is almost always a primary driver for the conus once you cross neutral threshold. It's rare when it gets completely overwhelmed by something else. The best long lead logic is to just go with climo in general and see what kinds of signals emerge later in the fall to gauge what kind of variation we can expect. If HL blocking shows its face in late November then BN temps and BN precipitation is a fair call for Dec. 

Nina's are typically normal or drier than normal here. Even with blocking we struggle with organized precipitation. You are in a much better climo spot so friendly advice would be to tread lightly in this thread. 

Rockland County.  Heard that one around here before.

[North Balti Zen]

If it's mid-September, must be time for Carbondale, PA and surrounding areas to all of a sudden take an interest in our weather...