Winter 2017-18 Disco

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, weather will be weather. 13-14 comes up often because the high latitude pattern was fairly hostile and we couldn't stop winning. It happens. Things don't look like they are breaking our way right now but it is only Sept. Literally 2 full months away before having any real idea about what early winter may look like. The only thing we need to avoid is a persistent GOA vortex/pac NW trough. It's unfortunate that this feature is starting to show up on seasonal guidance but again, it's only Sept. 

My early guess is winter as a whole will be fairly close to normal temp wise. Hedging slightly above probably makes the most sense. Snow totals require too much luck so guesses there are either lucky or unlucky. 

I recall someone saying temps on the Euro seasonal looked normalish for these parts. He!!, that'll feel down right cold compared to the last two winters. Otoh, the Canadian's most recent run sucked pretty bad,  so I'm prepared for another dog in general with the always possible fluke to save the winter. It's pretty much all we usually have going for us.

[PCT_ATC]

21 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yes, weather will be weather. 13-14 comes up often because the high latitude pattern was fairly hostile and we couldn't stop winning. It happens. Things don't look like they are breaking our way right now but it is only Sept. Literally 2 full months away before having any real idea about what early winter may look like. The only thing we need to avoid is a persistent GOA vortex/pac NW trough. It's unfortunate that this feature is starting to show up on seasonal guidance but again, it's only Sept. 

My early guess is winter as a whole will be fairly close to normal temp wise. Hedging slightly above probably makes the most sense. Snow totals require too much luck so guesses there are either lucky or unlucky. 

I for one am happy to see everyone so distraught about the upcoming winter signals.  It has to mean the exact opposite is going to happen.   Its September people!   How many times in the years past have we seen  the long range winter signals look great in September only to fail miserably by the time the winter actually arrives.   I for one think its great that we are having these discussions, but like Bob says, we still have a full 2 months to go before we can even get in the neighborhood of peeking at a long range winter forecast. 

[mitchnick]

Actually, the CFS2 ain't looking bad for the winter months with at, or a little below, normal temps and at, or a little above, normal precip.

Scoff all you want, but it really has been on the NINA and the other models have all moved toward it.

So let me be the first to say that the CFS2 provides some hope! 

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, PCT_ATC said:

I for one am happy to see everyone so distraught about the upcoming winter signals.  It has to mean the exact opposite is going to happen.   Its September people!   How many times in the years past have we seen  the long range winter signals look great in September only to fail miserably by the time the winter actually arrives.   I for one think its great that we are having these discussions, but like Bob says, we still have a full 2 months to go before we can even get in the neighborhood of peeking at a long range winter forecast. 

I'm not sure I agree with your first couple sentences. Unless things reverse in the Pac, the SSTA structure looks like a -PDO and at least a cold neutral or weak nina is shaping up. That's a rough combo here. What saved us in 13-14 and 14-15 was the +PDO. This is more than just a secondary feature of importance. A -PDO can drive a general NH circulation that features a ridge near the Aleutians and a trough in the gulf of Alaska. We'll never do well with that on the means. Things can always buck analogs and break our way in real time but long lead stuff right now is not our friend.

 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, the CFS2 ain't looking bad for the winter months with at, or a little below, normal temps and at, or a little above, normal precip.

Scoff all you want, but it really has been on the NINA and the other models have all moved toward it.

So let me be the first to say that the CFS2 provides some hope! 

Glad you broke the ice on this. Was looking over recent runs of the CFS yesterday and actually thought there was some promise with the pattern it was showing. 

This is the latest run available with the 3 month mean through the heart of winter and recent runs have had a similar look as well. I would also add that March has a very similar look.

Disturbed PV with a lobe planted on our side of the globe in north central Canada with the corresponding trough situated in the eastern US. Northern based +PNA being undercut by bagginess suggesting a possible split flow. And your favorite, an extension of the PV and corresponding trough towards Japan.

The look suggests cross polar flow to get the cold on our side of the globe into the east with a possible active southern stream to boot. Also like the fact that the location of the PV suggests that we could also possibly get by without a predominately -NAO as the PV, at times, could provide the blocking we would need.

Note: Just saw Bob's post. Kind of puts a a Chill on mine.

 

[Bob Chill]

The last 3 years that featured cold neutral or weak nina with a -PDO are 08-09, 11-12, and 12-13. There are plenty more as you go back in time. 

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The last 3 years that featured cold neutral or weak nina with a -PDO are 08-09, 11-12, and 12-13. There are plenty more as you go back in time. 

This.

Also, the winter before all those seasons also sucked. #noexpectations

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure I agree with your first couple sentences. Unless things reverse in the Pac, the SSTA structure looks like a -PDO and at least a cold neutral or weak nina is shaping up. That's a rough combo here. What saved us in 13-14 and 14-15 was the +PDO. This is more than just a secondary feature of importance. A -PDO can drive a general NH circulation that features a ridge near the Aleutians and a trough in the gulf of Alaska. We'll never do well with that on the means. Things can always buck analogs and break our way in real time but long lead stuff right now is not our friend.

 

Agree with the first.

Real time often doesn't equal long lead.  In fact, not sure anything can be taken too seriously at long leads.  

08-09, 11-12, 12-13 may have had the same enso/PDO combo, but those winters weren't very similar.  May have been statistically similar, but the day to day was very different in those winters.  IMO.

Actually 12-13 wasn't bad out here.

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

This.

Also, the winter before all those seasons also sucked. #noexpectations

10-11 didn't suck.  We missed some snow chances.  It was an eyelash from being a memorable one.

Sucking is what we've done the past two.

[showmethesnow]

For those that wonder what we are talking about when we mention blocking or a -NAO and 50/50 low. 12Z GFS had a great example on today's run. First picture below shows ridging extending into Greenland (Purple and red blob). These higher heights in this location is called a -NAO. Below and to the right of the -Nao we see a low pressure which is the blue blob. A low in this general location is a called 50/50. Following the arrow down in the states you can see the flow is for the most west to east from the plains to the east coast.

Now when you move 2 days forward, on the second pic below, you see that we now have significant ridging in the west and a trough amplifying in the east. This is the type of look we want to see for the possibility of a snow storm on the east coast. This is caused by the backing of the flow induced by the blocking from the -NAO and 50/50. The air in the front of the flow gets slowed down and the faster air behind it doesn't want to slow down so it moves to the side thus the buckle (Think it may be called Conservation of momentum).

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Agree with the first.

Real time often doesn't equal long lead.  In fact, not sure anything can be taken too seriously at long leads.  

08-09, 11-12, 12-13 may have had the same enso/PDO combo, but those winters weren't very similar.  May have been statistically similar, but the day to day was very different in those winters.  IMO.

Actually 12-13 wasn't bad out here.

They all featured AN temps and BN snow. That's what a -PDO + nina or cold neutral delivers the vast majority of the time. It might be every time. I can't find one in the last 40 years that didn't work out that way. I mean yea, we can pick apart each winter and find differences in the day to day but the general AN temps and BN is what has happened every time since I was born. 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

They all featured AN temps and BN snow. That's what a -PDO + nina or cold neutral delivers the vast majority of the time. It might be every time. I can't find one in the last 40 years that didn't work out that way. I mean yea, we can pick apart each winter and find differences in the day to day but the general AN temps and BN is what has happened every time since I was born. 

Problem with long range predictions are they are predicated on predicting other variables correctly like SST. So they are predictions on predictions. Sometimes the patterns shift unexpectedly. Other times the signals are ambiguous leaving us to guess which pattern drivers will be dominant. Rarely the major features look locked in and stable and in those years confidence is better. This might be one of those years unfortunately not the way we want. If you simply remove the years we had a desired PDO or ENSO phase (both look unlikely) we lose 80% of the time. Looking at years BOTH of those are in undesirable phases (like now) and it gets really ugly. That said flukes can happen and one big event can always occur in any season. Eventually we will get to fall with a modoki Nino and +PDO and we will be licking our chops. Then some solar storm will happen in December and screw it all up anyways...

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Problem with long range predictions are they are predicated on predicting other variables correctly like SST. 

Yep, I was just pointing out that the way things look right now it isn't very "exicting". The PDO region is notoriously unpredictable at long leads. I have no idea if the current look is going to hold or deteriorate through the fall into winter. ENSO on the other hand has some skill at range. And the trend has been pretty easy to spot. 

We could have a monster winter for all I know but since this is a long range thread so we should keep the discussion on facts and then discuss new facts as they present. Right now everything being presented looks pretty lame and we have 11 weeks to go before met winter kicks off. Maybe things shift around and inspire optimistic talk. Believe me, I want to be optimistic right now. I just can't find any facts or data points to back up optimism other than "winter might be great because we don't know yet". 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, I was just pointing out that the way things look right now it isn't very "exicting". The PDO region is notoriously unpredictable at long leads. I have no idea if the current look is going to hold or deteriorate through the fall into winter. ENSO on the other hand has some skill at range. And the trend has been pretty easy to spot. 

We could have a monster winter for all I know but since this is a long range thread so we should keep the discussion on facts and then discuss new facts as they present. Right now everything being presented looks pretty lame and we have 11 weeks to go before met winter kicks off. Maybe things shift around and inspire optimistic talk. Believe me, I want to be optimistic right now. I just can't find any facts or data points to back up optimism other than "winter might be great because we don't know yet". 

08/09 and 10/11 had westerly QBO's and blocking was naso hot except for 12/10 maybe. 12/13 had a negative QBO that was fast rising and was near peak in the solar cycle.

We won't find a year with a perfect match to this year, which makes it both hard and fun, at least this time of year when we're not sucking on 35 and drizzle while PHL on north is getting crushed. Anyway, if this winter works out, it'll be because of the low sun, E QBO and resulting blocking. Just my $0.02.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, I was just pointing out that the way things look right now it isn't very "exicting". The PDO region is notoriously unpredictable at long leads. I have no idea if the current look is going to hold or deteriorate through the fall into winter. ENSO on the other hand has some skill at range. And the trend has been pretty easy to spot. 

We could have a monster winter for all I know but since this is a long range thread so we should keep the discussion on facts and then discuss new facts as they present. Right now everything being presented looks pretty lame and we have 11 weeks to go before met winter kicks off. Maybe things shift around and inspire optimistic talk. Believe me, I want to be optimistic right now. I just can't find any facts or data points to back up optimism other than "winter might be great because we don't know yet". 

I agree 100% with your current assessment. My comments were more to just point out the inherent problems with why (as some pointed out) things don't often pan out the way it looks in September. Unfortunately things will deteriorate more often then the other way around since our "winning" look is limited and we have way more ways to fail here. That's just our climo. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm comforted by the fact that regardless the current state of any enso or 3 letter index, there's virtually no outcome for this winter that could make it any worse than the past 2, unless its +10 with zero snow.  I don't see that happening.

4 months ago some thought we were going to see a Nino.  How's that working out?  4 months from today is January.  I'm willing to wait and check the accuracy of these predictors.  Maybe the SAI index can give us a clue 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I've been lightly reading this thread now and then, though  sure I'll be following more as we get into fall. I'm in agreement with the overall assessment given current signals, i. e., not great expectations but don't think dumpster fire disaster like last year.

Certainly last winter was nearly wall-to-wall ugliness and futility except for a short time in January and the (disappointing) sleetfest in March. Just consistently way too warm for even a fluke. However, have to say I don't totally agree with some comments lumping winter before last (15-16) as being bad. Yeah Dec sucked with +11.5 temp departure. But the rest of the winter (Jan-Feb) was near normal, in fact Jan was a tad cooler than average. And yes, we "only" got the one hit wonder, but what a grand slam that hit was! Hard to ignore the elephant in the room there. We lucked out with the only good storm in the east that  year. And we did get at least a halfway decent or interesting snow/ice event in Feb.

Sorry for the semi-rant! 

Anyhow, expectations in check here, though hopefully won't be overly warm and perhaps we can push across a fluke or two (which can make the winter here in many years!). Just give us a couple periods of well-timed blocking at least that we can take advantage of! 

[pasnownut]

Now that the leaves are startin to show their colors, I'm crawlin out of the cave and getting caught up.  Looking forward to seeing how the upcoming winter evolves, and like some have stated, while signals are not overwhelmingly pos, they arent overwhelmingly neg either.  

No GOA trough with some blocking and I'll play the hand from there.

Nut

 

[uncle W]

if it works out like 1967-68 you guys could get 20" of snow and a possible white Christmas...to get to that level you will need a negative ao/nao on average...NYC got less snow than DCA that year...todays ao/nao forecasts look good but it's early and it means nothing now...it will mean something when December comes...

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

if it works out like 1967-68 you guys could get 20" of snow and a possible white Christmas...to get to that level you will need a negative ao/nao on average...NYC got less snow than DCA that year...todays ao/nao forecasts look good but it's early and it means nothing now...it will mean something when December comes...

67-68 is a good enso match but not sure how any of the other things these guys look at line up with that year.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

67-68 is a good enso match but not sure how any of the other things these guys look at line up with that year.

Qbo a good match, solar cycle not as it was near a max for that solar cycle (20).

[yoda]

Don't know if anyone saw this

 

[Bob Chill]

Euro ens plumes updated. Weak nina becoming likely and mod nina is possible.  I looked back the last 3 months and sst's are verifying at the bottom of the spread. Models have been playing catch up. It's mid Sept now so these long range charts have decent skill at this point for the months that count. Who's excited for a dominant northern stream winter? Lol

 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens plumes updated. Weak nina becoming likely and mod nina is possible.  I looked back the last 3 months and sst's are verifying at the bottom of the spread. Models have been playing catch up. It's mid Sept now so these long range charts have decent skill at this point for the months that count. Who's excited for a dominant northern stream winter? Lol

 

I am IF there's blocking. I'm telling you Bob, CFS2 had the Nina early and the winter forecast it's spitting out ain't too bad all things considered. 

[BTRWx]

Sorry guys.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I am IF there's blocking. I'm telling you Bob, CFS2 had the Nina early and the winter forecast it's spitting out ain't too bad all things considered. 

A weak nina isn't the end of the world. We'll get some snow and cold. Weak nina's almost always have cold periods even DJF end up above normal by a degree or 2. 

Cfs h5 pattern isn't very exciting for snow. Clippers and miller b's with limited southern stream. Maybe we end up with semi frequent light events. Anything but a warm door to door with few chances works with me. 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

A weak nina isn't the end of the world. We'll get some snow and cold. Weak nina's almost always have cold periods even DJF end up above normal by a degree or 2. 

Cfs h5 pattern isn't very exciting for snow. Clippers and miller b's with limited southern stream. Maybe we end up with semi frequent light events. Anything but a warm door to door with few chances works with me. 

One day, we'll get hit by a Miller B. Just don't ask me when. But a little more blocking and it'll happen. I always think of the blizzard of 78' that crushed the NE as the example of how it is possible for Miller B's to work for us. Then remember that BWI got around 10", DCA 6", & IAD only an inch from the frontal passage and nothing from the slp. Lol.  It'll be tough in here in a few months,  that's for sure, but it will be a whole lot better than last year. <fingers crossed>

[showmethesnow]

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

A weak nina isn't the end of the world. We'll get some snow and cold. Weak nina's almost always have cold periods even DJF end up above normal by a degree or 2. 

Cfs h5 pattern isn't very exciting for snow. Clippers and miller b's with limited southern stream. Maybe we end up with semi frequent light events. Anything but a warm door to door with few chances works with me. 

Discussing the cfs is more for amusement sake on my part with how often it changes but the look now isn't hateful at all compared to what we were seeing in previous months. Camping now so it is hard to go back and really look over things but if I remember correctly we were looking at a 2016 redux just a month ago. Now when I look over the whole N Hemisphere pattern I actually see some promise. Look says to me outbreaks of arctic cold broken by warm episodes. Generally avg. temps. but achieved by moderate extremes both warm and cold. And as you said northern stream dominant with clippers and Miller B's. Though Miller B's aren't our cash cow I do think the pattern is one favorable for our region. See hints of an occasional southern stream as well. All in all I would take what the cfs shows now with us staring down the barrel of a Nina. One thing I would like to see though is stronger signs of a split flow. Get that and I think our chances of at least an average snowfall winter go up substantially. Of course this just my opinion for whatever it is worth. 

[showmethesnow]

For those that follow nature for hints of the coming winter here's a couple. Am camping up around Carlisle in southern pa and there are geese everywhere and they are active to boot. Now whether they are year long residents or migrating I couldn't tell you. We are also seeing quite a few acorns already dropping from the trees as well as some trees starting to turn. 

[BTRWx]

What a difference 1 month can make. Not!

(Second map is a screen shot from the Saturday Summary)