mitchnick Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Haha, no I don't follow it. It just happens to be the guidance that's most readily available. I did find this. Pretty much the same look. Although I readily admit to being an eternal optimist at this point in any season, I think we can do fine (near normal or better) with neutral ENSO conditions and an E QBO. Examples from BWI of all neutral ENSO and E QBO since the late 1940's are: 56/57 - 15.4" 60/61 - 46.5" 62/63 - 19.6" 81/82 - 25.5" 83/84 - 14.5" 89/90 - 17.3" 93/94 - 17.3" (Lot of that was sleet) 96/97 - 15.3" (QBO was rising through winter and reach Westerly by February, but I include it) 03/04 - 18.3" 05/06 - 19.6" 12/13 - 8" (The only real dog of the group-I would note that the QBO was rising rapidly during the Winter and reached Westerly by March, 2013, which is likely not the scenerio this winter) AVERAGE AT BWI IS 19.75". THROW OUT THE HIGHEST AND THE LOWEST AND YOU GET 18.08". That's a solid average winter. Western and Northern burbs get to mid 20's. It is interesting to note too that there were some really cold periods in some of those winters listed. Record breaking stuff if memory serves. Based on following links. I did it fast so feel free to check my numbers. ENSO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml QBO: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data BWI Snowfall: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 7 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Had started to write up that such a quick turnaround with Ninas was unlikely but after looking over the Enso since 1950 I think we may be in uncharted territory. There have been quick turnarounds with Ninas when we see the intervening period stay in the cold neutral range. On the other hand the quickest turnaround when a Nino develops between Ninas is 16 months with most at 2+ years if not much longer. What we have seen during this current interval is Enso values that went into the warm neutral just missing Nino status and there are no cases to this to compare since 1950. Now if you twisted my arm on what we see this winter factored on the above I would put my money on us not seeing Nina and we stay in a neutral. But this is more so because though we didn't technically see a Nino we did see a Nino type pattern set up. Of course we are talking such a small data set you have to question if there is much value in the above anyway. Agree that the data set is small, but in the instances of a Nino of 2.0 or greater, all were followed by a multi-year Nina. The strength of the Nina, however, was not consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Although I readily admit to being an eternal optimist at this point in any season, I think we can do fine (near normal or better) with neutral ENSO conditions and an E QBO. Examples from BWI of all neutral ENSO and E QBO since the late 1940's are: 56/57 - 15.4" 60/61 - 46.5" 62/63 - 19.6" 81/82 - 25.5" 83/84 - 14.5" 89/90 - 17.3" 93/94 - 17.3" (Lot of that was sleet) 96/97 - 15.3" (QBO was rising through winter and reach Westerly by February, but I include it) 03/04 - 18.3" 05/06 - 19.6" 12/13 - 8" (The only real dog of the group-I would note that the QBO was rising rapidly during the Winter and reached Westerly by March, 2013, which is likely not the scenerio this winter) AVERAGE AT BWI IS 19.75". THROW OUT THE HIGHEST AND THE LOWEST AND YOU GET 18.08". That's a solid average winter. Western and Northern burbs get to mid 20's. It is interesting to note too that there were some really cold periods in some of those winters listed. Record breaking stuff if memory serves. Based on following links. I did it fast so feel free to check my numbers. ENSO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml QBO: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data BWI Snowfall: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx 12-13 was a good winter here. Well over 30", most of which fell in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 White Christmas's in DCA... seven times since 1941 did DCA have at least 1" on the ground Christmas morning...an additional seven years had a trace on the ground Christmas morning...IAD probably has more years with snow on the ground...I might check that sight some other time... there were other years with the ground bare that had snow flurries Christmas eve or day...some years had snow Christmas afternoon and evening... year...depth...7am...comments... 2009...7".....rain Christmas day and night melts all... 1989...2".....* Christmas night... 1966...7".....7" on the 23rd-24th... 1963...4".....5.6" on the 23rd-24th... 1962...5".....2" depth before 5.4" on Christmas day... 1960...1".....11th-12th storm... 1945...2".....rain starts as mix and continues all day and night...melts all... 2002...Trace...snow to rain Christmas am-pm... 1998...trace...ice... 1985...trace...rain to snow before dawn... 1967...trace...rain Christmas night... 1961...trace...0.5" and mix 12/24... 1959...trace...snow-rain Christmas day... 1948...trace...* Christmas mid day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Bastardi supports my early winter idea, but that 500mb map he produced looks frighteningly similar to last winter to me despite what he says about it. Would such a ridge placement over the Gulf of Alaska 200 miles farther east compared to last year help us enough? https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 14 hours ago, BTRWx said: Bastardi supports my early winter idea, but that 500mb map he produced looks frighteningly similar to last winter to me despite what he says about it. Would such a ridge placement over the Gulf of Alaska 200 miles farther east compared to last year help us enough? https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18 Are you talking the pioneer model? If so, IMO that is probably a cold look for us, not frigid but moderately cold. Take away that blocking over Greenland and it is probably a whole different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 17 hours ago, BTRWx said: Bastardi supports my early winter idea, but that 500mb map he produced looks frighteningly similar to last winter to me despite what he says about it. Would such a ridge placement over the Gulf of Alaska 200 miles farther east compared to last year help us enough? https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18 His forecast for BWI area is pretty darn consistent with the years having a neutral Enso/E QBO that I posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: His forecast for BWI area is pretty darn consistent with the years having a neutral Enso/E QBO that I posted above. Bastardi's forecast was pretty low key which was somewhat surprising because he hypes everything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 On 8/17/2017 at 2:53 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: 12-13 was a good winter here. Well over 30", most of which fell in March. Agreed. I was in school at JMU and we did pretty well on a few events that fringed the cities. The early March storm dropped more than a foot in the valley and that's probably what's made me remember it fondly. I can't seem to find a snow map for that storm anywhere. I remember the gradient being pretty brutal east of the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 50 minutes ago, TSG said: Agreed. I was in school at JMU and we did pretty well on a few events that fringed the cities. The early March storm dropped more than a foot in the valley and that's probably what's made me remember it fondly. I can't seem to find a snow map for that storm anywhere. I remember the gradient being pretty brutal east of the blue ridge. For some reason LWX doesn't have the 2 March 2013 snowfall maps on their website... the links are there but when you click on it the page is unable to be displayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 For some reason LWX doesn't hhave the 2 March 2013 snowfall maps on their websiteProbably for the best... not sure I want to see that one again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Probably for the best... not sure I want to see that one again. The first March one yes... the 2nd one on the 25th I want to see it as I don't remember that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Pretend this is the output for January 30 instead of August 30. 53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If you loved last winter, you'll love the new run of the Cansips out this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: If you loved last winter, you'll love the new run of the Cansips out this evening. Flipped everything from its July run. Wonder if it has to do with it now seeing an La Nina/Neutral vs an El Nino on its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: If you loved last winter, you'll love the new run of the Cansips out this evening. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Flipped everything from its July run. Wonder if it has to do with it now seeing an La Nina/Neutral vs an El Nino on its previous runs. That's what happened. It went from seeing a Niño to cold-neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: That's what happened. It went from seeing a Niño to cold-neutral To see the CANSIPS flip the pattern as quickly as it did makes me wonder if there is to much emphasis placed on ENSO thus overlooking other factors that are pattern drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: To see the CANSIPS flip the pattern as quickly as it did makes me wonder if there is to much emphasis placed on ENSO thus overlooking other factors that are pattern drivers. I suppose there is only so much you can hang a hat on at multi-month leads. I will say this, the Pac looks like a complete disaster right now for a good winter in the east. I don't like the CanSips run at all but it could easily be right. Right now Enso and the PDO are hostile adversaries. Ack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: To see the CANSIPS flip the pattern as quickly as it did makes me wonder if there is to much emphasis placed on ENSO thus overlooking other factors that are pattern drivers. The thing is, we don't have many analogs to look at for this upcoming winter based on what we have now; cold-neutral ENSO following a previous La Niña, -PDO, -QBO, low solar. That analog list isn't very big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I suppose there is only so much you can hang a hat on at multi-month leads. I will say this, the Pac looks like a complete disaster right now for a good winter in the east. I don't like the CanSips run at all but it could easily be right. Right now Enso and the PDO are hostile adversaries. Ack. With tropical heating up the last few weeks I had lost focus on this upcoming winter. But I did glance at the Pacific the other day and yeah, I admit, I cringed a little. But as far as I am concerned the QBO will save us. Don't know much about the QBO, all I do know is that it will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The thing is, we don't have many analogs to look at for this upcoming winter based on what we have now; cold-neutral ENSO following a previous La Niña, -PDO, -QBO, low solar. That analog list isn't very big... Have to agree. Looked over some things a few weeks ago and I think we are, for the most part, in uncharted territory. My big wag though is that I believe we really need to see a predominately -NAO throughout the winter to have any hopes of a decent winter. Otherwise, IMO, we are most likely SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Have to agree. Looked over some things a few weeks ago and I think we are, for the most part, in uncharted territory. My big wag though is that I believe we really need to see a predominately -NAO throughout the winter to have any hopes of a decent winter. Otherwise, IMO, we are most likely SOL. Assuming cold-neutral/La Nada and -PDO for this winter, you are 100% correct, we would absolutely need a negative NAM (-AO, -NAO) or we would be in huge trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Assuming cold-neutral/La Nada and -PDO for this winter, you are 100% correct, we would absolutely need a negative NAM (-AO, -NAO) or we would be in huge trouble Your bringing up the -AO brought to mind that I should have clarified some on the -NAO. We need to see a predominately west based -NAO for it to work for our region, east based not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm unusually disinterested in long lead winter talk this year. We have no strong signals to work with. Just think what's transpired the last 4 months. We went from wondering if we have a weak or mod nino to now wondering if we are going Nina. Enso neutral is the most probable outcome and if we do go nina it will probably be a late bloomer. As already stated ITT, in a year without a solid enso signal the discussion moves towards blocking. There is no way on god's green earth someone can convince me that they know how that's going to transpire right now. Especially after the "most useful long range AO tool" SAI completely failed for 3 years running and we haven't even begun to look at snowcover. I'll stick with the easy call ffor now. Below normal snow and above normal temps. If the AO looks to start Dec in neg territory I'll change my mind. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm unusually disinterested in long lead winter talk this year. We have no strong signals to work with. Just think what's transpired the last 4 months. We went from wondering if we have a weak or mod nino to now wondering if we are going Nina. Enso neutral is the most probable outcome and if we do go nina it will probably be a late bloomer. As already stated ITT, in a year without a solid enso signal the discussion moves towards blocking. There is no way on god's green earth someone can convince me that they know how that's going to transpire right now. Especially after the "most useful long range AO tool" SAI completely failed for 3 years running and we haven't even begun to look at snowcover. I'll stick with the easy call ffor now. Below normal snow and above normal temps. If the AO looks to start Dec in neg territory I'll change my mind. LOL 1 thing us weenies can hang our hats on is the flip to cold that the Cansips did for September vs. the last month's run (see below.) So there's the proof that you can't trust any long lead model month-to-month, let alone for a season. I'd still preferred it showed otherwise, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm unusually disinterested in long lead winter talk this year. We have no strong signals to work with. Just think what's transpired the last 4 months. We went from wondering if we have a weak or mod nino to now wondering if we are going Nina. Enso neutral is the most probable outcome and if we do go nina it will probably be a late bloomer. As already stated ITT, in a year without a solid enso signal the discussion moves towards blocking. There is no way on god's green earth someone can convince me that they know how that's going to transpire right now. Especially after the "most useful long range AO tool" SAI completely failed for 3 years running and we haven't even begun to look at snowcover. I'll stick with the easy call ffor now. Below normal snow and above normal temps. If the AO looks to start Dec in neg territory I'll change my mind. LOL In other words...count on it being a lost cause and just be surprised at any improvements? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm unusually disinterested in long lead winter talk this year. We have no strong signals to work with. Just think what's transpired the last 4 months. We went from wondering if we have a weak or mod nino to now wondering if we are going Nina. Enso neutral is the most probable outcome and if we do go nina it will probably be a late bloomer. As already stated ITT, in a year without a solid enso signal the discussion moves towards blocking. There is no way on god's green earth someone can convince me that they know how that's going to transpire right now. Especially after the "most useful long range AO tool" SAI completely failed for 3 years running and we haven't even begun to look at snowcover. I'll stick with the easy call ffor now. Below normal snow and above normal temps. If the AO looks to start Dec in neg territory I'll change my mind. LOL Well, as you know (because I keep saying it lol), I thought the Nino was a dead duck even when it looked likely. Of course, that's purely from past stats, not some brilliant insight on my part. So, from that perspective, how do the years 67-68, 74-75, 84-85, 99-00 compare based on the other indices that you guys use to what you think regarding this upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 First flakes of rocky mountain snow at 348 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Meh https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/906154774378143746?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fbennollweather%2Fstatus%2F906154774378143746 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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