Winter 2017-18 Disco

[Bob Chill]

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Canadian long range is out (8/1 run.) Dec is so-so, Jan is a torch, and Feb we rock (relatively speaking.) Bob, take it from here my friend....I'm on vacation.  

EDIT: More I look at it,  the more meh worthy it becomes. 

Seasons are latching onto the idea of no nino. Cansips changed quite a bit compared to the last couple runs. Without an enso signal, long leads don't really have a reliable indicator. Hopefully the japan trough and qbo save us. 

[dmillz25]

Cansips look split flowish to me honestly. Looks like the higher heights stay in the west as well

[roardog]

On 7/31/2017 at 11:58 AM, Bob Chill said:

Nino look continues to slip. This is far from a building nino and the trend is backwards:

 

The one bad thing that stands out is the -PDO. And a pretty stout one at that. If we have enso neutral and a -PDO, blocking will be a requirement to have a decent winter. 

 

Although there is cold water near the west coast, isn't the official PDO still positive? I think it came in at .79 for July.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

Although there is cold water near the west coast, isn't the official PDO still positive? I think it came in at .79 for July.

.79 was the June reading. It's been dropping since April. Take a look at the Npac at the end of June. Complete reversal in the western half of the basin:

 

July may not come in negative for the month because it started out positive. Right now it's definitely a -PDO though. We won't know what we're dealing with until November. Hopefully it reverses again. -PDO's correlate to AN temps and BN snow way more often than not around here. Have no idea about how it affects patterns in your area. 

 

[frd]

Interesting 

 

 

[BTRWx]

For as long as the soi hovers around 0 (+/- ~5), then I'm not giving up on a weak nino idea!

[BTRWx]

On 8/2/2017 at 8:23 AM, frd said:

Interesting 

 

 

I've been all-in on 2006 since I posted the sunspot chart!

eta: Meaning early Fall chill against his November idea...

[frd]

Also of note is that it appears likely the QBO will be in its favorable blocking phase , the negative East phase. I believe there the question is at what level, severely negative or slighty so

Maybe this is a winter where blocking in the Mid Atlantic  region over powers the ENSO phase. Maybe neutral ENSO with more frequenet NAO domain blocking. Not sure just some speculaton.    

[BTRWx]

23 hours ago, frd said:

Also of note is that it appears likely the QBO will be in its favorable blocking phase , the negative East phase. I believe there the question is at what level, severely negative or slighty so

Maybe this is a winter where blocking in the Mid Atlantic  region over powers the ENSO phase. Maybe neutral ENSO with more frequenet NAO domain blocking. Not sure just some speculaton.    

As of today, the soi daily has reversed from being as high as +8 to now -27 since the start of the month!  The last time the value was that low was late June.  I'm watching these numbers very closely! https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, BTRWx said:

As of today, the soi daily has reversed from being as high as +8 to now -27 since the start of the month!  The last time the value was that low was late June.  I'm watching these numbers very closely! https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

We've lost a lot of ground for even a weak nino at this point. Still another 2 months before we can officially call it but the writing has been on the wall for a while now. All seasonal guidance has backed way down. CFS is now cold netural. ECMWF plumes aren't out yet for August but the ground truth pretty much says forgetaboutit. 

[mitchnick]

I like this SSTA map because it seems to be a little more precise, but it could just be my old eyes. It does show some warming taking place in the Gulf of Alaska, which I'd like to continue seeing.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

[yoda]

http://www.wusa9.com/weather/almanac-plenty-of-cold-snow-for-this-winter-for-northeast/464493533

Yay!

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

http://www.wusa9.com/weather/almanac-plenty-of-cold-snow-for-this-winter-for-northeast/464493533

Yay!

 

 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

http://www.wusa9.com/weather/almanac-plenty-of-cold-snow-for-this-winter-for-northeast/464493533

Yay!

 

Quote

The Farmer's Almanac that goes on sale this week predicts a snowy winter from Maryland to Maine with five coastal storms to bring winter misery to the region.

 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

I've never reported a post, but if I was inclined to do so, THIS would be the one!

[mattie g]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've never reported a post, but if I was inclined to do so, THIS would be the one!

Worst storm ever

[pasnownut]

19 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I've never reported a post, but if I was inclined to do so, THIS would be the one!

And how.....

+1

That actually hurt just to look at.

Happy late summer all.

 

Nut

 

[showmethesnow]

For those hoping for an El Nino I think we can probably stick a fork in it. The Probabilistic ENSO Outlook now strongly favors an Enso neutral and has La nina almost twice as likely to occur over an El nino during the meat of the winter; Dec, Jan, Feb. Neutral 55%, Nina 29%, Nino 16%

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[yoda]

On 8/15/2017 at 2:06 PM, mattie g said:

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For those hoping for an El Nino I think we can probably stick a fork in it. The Probabilistic ENSO Outlook now heavily favors an Enso neutral and has La nina almost twice as likely to occur over an El nino during the meat of the winter; Dec, Jan, Feb.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

BOOOOO.......Seems like the crappy winters come in groups of two or three! At least this time we'll know way ahead of time not to even expect anything (where's last year it was more up in the air). And the Farmer's almanac can go jump in a la niña lake!!! 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

BOOOOO.......Seems like the crappy winters come in groups of two or three! At least this time we'll know way ahead of time not to even expect anything (where's last year it was more up in the air). And the Farmer's almanac can go jump in a la niña lake!!! 

We can do fine in a Neutral, especially if we can get some blocking up top. It's a La Nina, in particular the moderate to strong ones, that screw our chances up. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

For those hoping for an El Nino I think we can probably stick a fork in it. The Probabilistic ENSO Outlook now strongly favors an Enso neutral and has La nina almost twice as likely to occur over an El nino during the meat of the winter; Dec, Jan, Feb. Neutral 55%, Nina 29%, Nino 16%

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Yeah, IMO there was never any real chance.  Until it actually happens, stats say you simply don't follow a strong nino with another Nino within a two year period.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

We can do fine in a Neutral, especially if we can get some blocking up top. It's a La Nina, in particular the moderate to strong ones, that screw our chances up. 

And if the CFSv2 is to be believed, a mod Nina is still very much in play.  Not what I wanted to see.  Much prefer a cold neutral.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And if the CFSv2 is to be believed, a mod Nina is still very much in play.  Not what I wanted to see.  Much prefer a cold neutral.

Ha haaa....So you admit you follow the CFS! Next step is to apologize to all the weenies you bashed for posting what it showed.

Apology accepted.     Lol

[Kmlwx]

45 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What is going on at that station these days?!

WUSA?

That is an AP article that WUSA has reposted it seems. 

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

So they're plagiarizing false science...

Most news stations have an agreement with AP to repost articles. Not plagiarism. And they post almanac articles every year - it's kind of like halloween candy - not a new thing! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Ha haaa....So you admit you follow the CFS! Next step is to apologize to all the weenies you bashed for posting what it showed.

Apology accepted.     Lol

Haha, no I don't follow it.  It just happens to be the guidance that's most readily available.  

I did find this.  Pretty much the same look.

[BTRWx]

50 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Most news stations have an agreement with AP to repost articles. Not plagiarism. And they post almanac articles every year - it's kind of like halloween candy - not a new thing! 

This banter is in the wrong place anyways.  I deleted mine.

[showmethesnow]

12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And if the CFSv2 is to be believed, a mod Nina is still very much in play.  Not what I wanted to see.  Much prefer a cold neutral.

Had started to write up that such a quick turnaround with Ninas was unlikely but after looking over the Enso since 1950 I think we may be in uncharted territory. There have been quick turnarounds with Ninas when we see the intervening period stay in the cold neutral range. On the other hand the quickest turnaround when a Nino develops between Ninas is 16 months with most at 2+ years if not much longer. What we have seen during this current interval is Enso values that went into the warm neutral just missing Nino status and there are no cases to this to compare since 1950. Now if you twisted my arm on what we see this winter factored on the above I would put my money on us not seeing Nina and we stay in a neutral. But this is more so because though we didn't technically see a Nino we did see a Nino type pattern set up. Of course we are talking such a small data set you have to question if there is much value in the above anyway.

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Had started to write up that such a quick turnaround with Ninas was unlikely but after looking over the Enso since 1950 I think we may be in uncharted territory. There have been quick turnarounds with Ninas when we see the intervening period stay in the cold neutral range. On the other hand the quickest turnaround when a Nino develops between Ninas is 16 months with most at 2+ years if not much longer. What we have seen during this current interval is Enso values that went into the warm neutral just missing Nino status and there are no cases to this to compare since 1950. Now if you twisted my arm on what we see this winter factored on the above I would put my money on us not seeing Nina and we stay in a neutral. But this is more so because though we didn't technically see a Nino we did see a Nino type pattern set up. Of course we are talking such a small data set you have to question if there is much value in the above anyway.

As some have already mentioned, I'd take my chances w/ neutral, and hope for some semblance of blocking....but we all know how thats helped in the last few years.  Still not a toaster bath.

Nut