showmethesnow Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 22 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never say never, I suppose. Sure seems it's gonna take a rabbit from the hat to pull off a winter Nino. Though the ENSO forecasts have better skill after broaching the switch from spring to summer I have seen to many total fails to get overly worked up about what they show at this point. Come Sept/Oct will be another story but until then I will keep my expectations in check. For what it's worth I am still thinking positive neutral but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 18 hours ago, Bob Chill said: In another month, long range enso models should start painting a decent picture. ECMWF has much better skill scores than the CFS. Warm neutral seems to be the most likely scenario. Looks like the ECMWF may be hinting at 2 camps on that graph. A neutral camp or a weak/low end moderate nino camp. Kind of hard to tell though without seeing the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like the ECMWF may be hinting at 2 camps on that graph. A neutral camp or a weak/low end moderate nino camp. Kind of hard to tell though without seeing the individual members. here's the mean visually for Oct-Dec https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_charts_public_ecmwf_sst?time=2017070100,4392,2017123100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: here's the mean visually for Oct-Dec https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/seasonal_charts_public_ecmwf_sst?time=2017070100,4392,2017123100 Looks like a central/west based border line weak El Nino though it looks as if it is breaking down as we head into the heart of winter. I could live with a weak Modoki El Nino. I take it they don't have the SST for the northern latitudes? Would be curious as to how the northern Pacific and Atlantic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 17, 2017 Share Posted July 17, 2017 30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like a central/west based border line weak El Nino though it looks as if it is breaking down as we head into the heart of winter. I could live with a weak Modoki El Nino. I take it they don't have the SST for the northern latitudes? Would be curious as to how the northern Pacific and Atlantic look. Nah, the Euro site has limited free maps, etc., and what you see is all they've got. Maybe someone with a subscription to Euro output can answer that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 17, 2017 Author Share Posted July 17, 2017 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like the ECMWF may be hinting at 2 camps on that graph. A neutral camp or a weak/low end moderate nino camp. Kind of hard to tell though without seeing the individual members. The trend has been consistently lower in the long range for at least the last 4 months. Since the best skill 3 months and under, I usually look at that trend and make some assumptions. Right now the next 3 months look flat or declining. I doubt we get anywhere near moderate and even the prospects of weak (by official classification) are unlikely as well. If I had to bet the deed for the house on where we end up I would go neutral without a second thought. OTOH- I feel pretty good about saying we aren't going to have a raging +AO/NAO again this year. My guess is that multi-year run is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 12 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The trend has been consistently lower in the long range for at least the last 4 months. Since the best skill 3 months and under, I usually look at that trend and make some assumptions. Right now the next 3 months look flat or declining. I doubt we get anywhere near moderate and even the prospects of weak (by official classification) are unlikely as well. If I had to bet the deed for the house on where we end up I would go neutral without a second thought. OTOH- I feel pretty good about saying we aren't going to have a raging +AO/NAO again this year. My guess is that multi-year run is over. I'd wait until the Siberian snow cover declares itself before making predictions regarding the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 On 3/17/2017 at 1:06 PM, BTRWx said: I'm sure some of you get tired of hearing "when was the last time x happened?"...but I'm convinced that analogs are becoming a big thing for the future of nwp. The following chart says it all. If we go super +enso, we'd (again) be in unseen territory! No two strong nino events have ever occurred within 5 years of one another. There were a few moderate ninos squished together with 63-66 and 86-88 from a quick glance, but it's interesting to see the stronger ninos of those years were after the slightly weaker moderates. Good data from that site! http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm On 3/20/2017 at 11:41 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder if we see Nino at all. Each of the high end Ninos in that graph are followed by multi-year cool cycles On 5/2/2017 at 0:25 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Betcha a couple of beers at a Nats game that we end up neutral/slight nina. These posts are going to win the thread. I'm pretty excited about the upcoming winter provided we can stay close to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 18 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: These posts are going to win the thread. I'm pretty excited about the upcoming winter provided we can stay close to neutral. I'm with you on everything except "I'm excited about the upcoming winter" and I'm leaning weak nino. eta: Thanks for the mention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 Don't give up on the weak nino idea just yet! The daily SOI is back in negative territory (first column). https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 On 7/17/2017 at 1:43 PM, Bob Chill said: The trend has been consistently lower in the long range for at least the last 4 months. Since the best skill 3 months and under, I usually look at that trend and make some assumptions. Right now the next 3 months look flat or declining. I doubt we get anywhere near moderate and even the prospects of weak (by official classification) are unlikely as well. If I had to bet the deed for the house on where we end up I would go neutral without a second thought. OTOH- I feel pretty good about saying we aren't going to have a raging +AO/NAO again this year. My guess is that multi-year run is over. What accounts for your confidence in this sir? Hoping you are correct, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 Recent NOAA update from the 24th. Really doesn't look promising for those hoping for a Nino. Temps have steadily dropped for the most part in all four regions the last month. The only possible positive I can see is that the warmer anomalies are centered in the the western and central pacific. And that is only a positive if that configuration has a similar influence on weather patterns during a neutral (which looks as if will be the case this year) as we see with a Modoki Nino and I have no idea. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 28, 2017 Share Posted July 28, 2017 On 7/26/2017 at 8:59 AM, Eduardo said: What accounts for your confidence in this sir? Hoping you are correct, of course. -QBO, but especially a weak el nino if we were ever able to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 30, 2017 Author Share Posted July 30, 2017 On Wednesday, July 26, 2017 at 8:59 AM, Eduardo said: What accounts for your confidence in this sir? Hoping you are correct, of course. The anomalous run of +ao winters has to end eventually. We haven't had meaningful winter blocking since January 2011. The positive streak we're on is unprecedented since good records have been kept. There is really no good indicator to go off of right now to use science to make predictions. Way way too early. But odds favor not having another raging positive winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The anomalous run of +ao winters has to end eventually. We haven't had meaningful winter blocking since January 2011. The positive streak we're on is unprecedented since good records have been kept. There is really no good indicator to go off of right now to use science to make predictions. Way way too early. But odds favor not having another raging positive winter. i.e. - the we're due index is high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 We haven't had a crippling ice storm in some time...or a true paste bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: We haven't had a crippling ice storm in some time...or a true paste bomb. Define sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Define sometime I can't remember the last true crippling ice storm. Ice storms seem to be over modeled and underperform big time...usually it's like <0.15" of ice on sidewalks. As far as paste bombs...the last one I can remember is Jan, 2011 (commuteageddon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I can't remember the last true crippling ice storm. Ice storms seem to be over modeled and underperform big time...usually it's like <0.15" of ice on sidewalks. As far as paste bombs...the last one I can remember is Jan, 2011 (commuteageddon). ice storm yes, paste bombs there have been a few of since commuteageddon in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Just now, yoda said: ice storm yes, paste bombs there have been a few of since commuteageddon in 2011 What events come to your mind? I'm talking about one that hits us in the front teeth and really stresses the infrastructure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 31, 2017 Author Share Posted July 31, 2017 15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: i.e. - the we're due index is high I was trying to keep the technical talk out of my reply. Yes, the WDI is up in the 90th percentile and climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 31, 2017 Author Share Posted July 31, 2017 Nino look continues to slip. This is far from a building nino and the trend is backwards: The one bad thing that stands out is the -PDO. And a pretty stout one at that. If we have enso neutral and a -PDO, blocking will be a requirement to have a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 So what was the winter of 1981-82 like in these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I was trying to keep the technical talk out of my reply. Yes, the WDI is up in the 90th percentile and climbing. You're right. My bad. Let's keep it on the plain talk level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Nino look continues to slip. This is far from a building nino and the trend is backwards: The one bad thing that stands out is the -PDO. And a pretty stout one at that. If we have enso neutral and a -PDO, blocking will be a requirement to have a decent winter. Yeah, I think the Nino idea is a goner. Someday the stats after a strong Nino might yield but it sure looks like they will hold this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 I think, strictly enso wise, 67-68, 74-75, 84-85 are the best matches. No idea what those winters were like here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think, strictly enso wise, 67-68, 74-75, 84-85 are the best matches. No idea what those winters were like here. Three very different winters. 1967-68 was a 40" snow season in this area with big totals in Nov, Dec, and Mar. 1974-75 was an average snow season without any notable temp extremes. 1984-85 started mild, had a record cold snap in January and finished with below normal snowfall and record warmth by late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Three very different winters. 1967-68 was a 40" snow season in this area with big totals in Nov, Dec, and Mar. 1974-75 was an average snow season without any notable temp extremes. 1984-85 started mild, had a record cold snap in January and finished with below normal snowfall and record warmth by late February. Ok. Given this info, I'm going with 67-68 as my top analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Updated Canadian long range is out (8/1 run.) Dec is so-so, Jan is a torch, and Feb we rock (relatively speaking.) Bob, take it from here my friend....I'm on vacation. EDIT: More I look at it, the more meh worthy it becomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 12 hours ago, mitchnick said: Updated Canadian long range is out (8/1 run.) Dec is so-so, Jan is a torch, and Feb we rock (relatively speaking.) Bob, take it from here my friend....I'm on vacation. EDIT: More I look at it, the more meh worthy it becomes. Good Lord....not another backloaded winter.....MEH is right. We wait.......... Hope ya'll are having a great summer. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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