showmethesnow Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Justine Berk's winter forecast is out. https://justinweather.com/2017/11/19/my-winter-outlook-2017-to-2018-shows-more-snow/ Looks for average snow with some ice storms thrown into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Justine Berk's winter forecast is out. https://justinweather.com/2017/11/19/my-winter-outlook-2017-to-2018-shows-more-snow/ Looks for average snow with some ice storms thrown into the mix. Sounds as good as anything anybody could predict in November..he is as likely to be right as wrong as possibly right or more wrong than right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Sounds as good as anything anybody could predict in November..he is as likely to be right as wrong as possibly right or more wrong than right You got my head spinning with this. Busy with a couple of other things at this point so I haven't really had a chance to look over it to get an idea of his thoughts. I do think he is somewhat decent even if he swears by the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: JB2 posted his winter outlook FWIW. Basically normal snowfall and below normal temps. YMMV 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Justine Berk's winter forecast is out. https://justinweather.com/2017/11/19/my-winter-outlook-2017-to-2018-shows-more-snow/ Looks for average snow with some ice storms thrown into the mix. One and the same. 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf I got a little overwhelmed trying to get through DT's slides, but I like the east-based trough he is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: One and the same. I got a little overwhelmed trying to get through DT's slides, but I like the east-based trough he is forecasting. But I gave a link. I saw JB in WxUSAF's post and automatically assumed he was talking the infamous JB of Vodka Cold. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 I really like DT's slides. He is a good teacher. You can understand where he is coming from. No matter what occurs, I learned a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But I gave a link. I saw JB in WxUSAF's post and automatically assumed he was talking the infamous JB of Vodka Cold. My bad. I certainly wasn't judging. Just letting others know who JB2 is around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 I couldn't ignore this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 +SSTAs so close to the equilatoral La Nina is probably cold North America pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months. Ugh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months. 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: This was an easy one... La Nina surrounded by warm SSTs so close, and not connected to subsurface. Always look for this to produce cold Winter. 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: It's technically Fall. The pattern is just awesome because of its sustainability index At this point I'm sure StormchaserChuck is just trolling us...or just hugging current model runs really hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2017 Share Posted November 24, 2017 10 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: I made a point that until a few days ago we were mostly +NAO since August, now models have -NAO fading in 2-3 days. The Pacific is another example of models getting in front. Since October, the medium-long range has always shown some sort of pattern favoring North America cold. Right now, it's -PNA/+EPO, a 95% warm pattern. medium range models have also backed off of the -EPO idea this morning. It's not that the cold wont come, but usually when the now is so different from models, the Now tendency wins going forward weeks to months. It's not funny anymore. Whatever point you think your making is lost. Those of us that see what your doing are just disregarding all your posts and worse anyone that simply wanders into the thread might fall victim to your barrage of bs. I am pretty liberal with forum decorum and almost always take the side of "let em talk about whatever" but you should stop. There is no value to what your doing and worse it might throw some of the weenies and anyone new to this thread off on a tangent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Based off the hype in the long range thread, someone is going to have to issue a Weenie Suicide Watch if/when the pattern in December fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Based off the hype in the long range thread, someone is going to have to issue a Weenie Suicide Watch if/when the pattern in December fails. The weak will perish and the strong will survive. As it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 Some decent analogs showing up for possible snow with CPC d11+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Dec 5-10 for whatever reason always has a tendency to have big -EPO in the last 20 years, especially on models medium-long term. This always flips to massive +EPO by early January in the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Dec 5-10 for whatever reason always has a tendency to have big -EPO in the last 20 years, especially on models medium-long term. This always flips to massive +EPO by early January in the last 10 years. - l - with winter Solstice maybe Always flips on January in the last 10 years? Including 1/10 & 1/14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Chuck right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12 hours ago, mitchnick said: Always flips on January in the last 10 years? Including 1/10 & 1/14? He is just making stuff up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Something I've been thinking wrt timing for the winter. we have seen extreme tanking of the epo/AO or both in December before several times. Just some off the top of my head observations. Often this is a sign of a long term pattern setting in. 1995/6, 2000/01, 2002/03, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2013/14 all lead to prolonged periods of high latitude higher heights in the AO or epo domain and at least a decent pattern for much of the winter. Some of those didn't work out as great for our back yard as others, namely 2001 and 2011 but that was more bad luck then anything else. 2005/6 flipped but the flip happened pretty fast so if the long range continues to hint at this general look persisting and reloading then we might be looking at the long term dominant pattern setting in. In the last 25 years most of the time that we have seen this drastic of a high latitude blocking pattern set in this time of year we have seen that pattern dominate and reload through the majority of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 BobC has been beating that drum for awhile, PSU. You all are on the same page with that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: BobC has been beating that drum for awhile, PSU. You all are on the same page with that thought. Dec can be a huge clue for blocking in general...for better or worse. Recency bias is finally starting to go away and folks are accepting the fact that this year has a really good chance at breaking the nasty trend of raging +AO winters. Everything is breaking right and it's not unreasonable to up the optimism level at this point. There's a lot of data to back up the thoughts of -AO coming strong and hanging around. I don't really care about the NAO honestly. Give me a -AO on the means for DJF and avoid a nasty AK vortex and the odds favor AN snow. Uncomplicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 So the NAO is negative! This is pretty big because cyclical indicators favor a smoothing N Hemisphere pattern --- but the NAO is quite negative, bucking the trend. I haven't seen much of this difference in the last 10 years. 1995 comes to mind. Much different Winter thoughts. -- I was thinking it was evolving like 2005, 2006, 2007 etc... but the NAO being negative now and week ago say this is more like the 80s and early 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Surprising. I was looking for my Winter forecast but couldn't find it, I made a good call on December in October everywhere but the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Good Winter so far I would love the overall state of things if this would repeat in the next 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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