Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Earthlight and crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Earthlight and crew. Looks like a subscription site. sigh... Care to share anything about what their forecast is, or are you promoting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, RDM said: Looks like a subscription site. sigh... Care to share anything about what their forecast is, or are you promoting them? Doesn't ask to subscribe. It says normal snowfall here, average to slightly above average temps. Basically going with a typical Nina in which places to the north are expected to see above average totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, RDM said: Looks like a subscription site. sigh... Care to share anything about what their forecast is, or are you promoting them? Their winter forecast is free, hence why it says "Our 2017-2018 Winter Forecast is now publicly available". You need to click on the link. Here is the link. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/11/10/winter-forecast-2017-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Their winter forcecast is free, hence why it says "Our Winter Forecast is now publicly available". You need to click on the link. Here is the link. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/11/10/winter-forecast-2017-2018/ Got it - thanks - interesting. For us in the MA, they project Dec temps to be BN, but above for J-F and on the dry side of normal. Unless someone is to the west in the Mts, this would not bode well for us down here. I hope they are wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 October 1995 and 2017...some similarities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 For those interested, I posted my winter outlook in the main forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 11/10/2017 at 11:39 PM, RDM said: Got it - thanks - interesting. For us in the MA, they project Dec temps to be BN, but above for J-F and on the dry side of normal. Unless someone is to the west in the Mts, this would not bode well for us down here. I hope they are wrong... That's not how I read it. Their precip outlook is for snowfall, and they have us straddling the 75% of normal line. It's not great, but it's just a general long-range forecast. We all know those aren't easy to get right, especially when you're making that call for the entire country. And in an area like ours where one decent event can make a huge difference in where we end up in relation to normal snowfall, it's even trickier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: That's not how I read it. Their precip outlook is for snowfall, and they have us straddling the 75% of normal line. It's not great, but it's just a general long-range forecast. We all know those aren't easy to get right, especially when you're making that call for the entire country. And in an area like ours where one decent event can make a huge difference in where we end up in relation to normal snowfall, it's even trickier. A good recent example was 05/06-- MBY exceeded average with a 23" season total largely from the 14" on 2/11-12/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 I think we warm up nicely after Thanksgiving into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: I think we warm up nicely after Thanksgiving into December. What do you mean by nicely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What do you mean by nicely? Stratospheric vortex is forecasted to not catch the warming and bomb out a bit in the long range, -AAM tendency to the poles to catch a break. Probably some good +5 to +10 anomalies early to mid December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Stratospheric vortex is forecasted to not catch the warming and bomb out a bit in the long range, -AAM tendency to the poles to catch a break. Probably some good +5 to +10 anomalies early to mid December... Yikes. Hopefully that can flip-flop and reverse for the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Also, now with October-November done and late November being forecasted on models with La Nina almost completely known, this is my Winter forecast December January February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: Also, now with October-November done and late November being forecasted on models with SST data and La Nina, this is my Winter forecast December January February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 1:02 PM, StormchaserChuck said: -NAO seems to be solid lock, 75-80% I'd say On 10/26/2017 at 2:56 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Yup... retrograding pattern on models. Nothing special about this cold time, as it relates to the Winter. Short MJO correlated cycle On 10/28/2017 at 10:16 AM, StormchaserChuck said: Pattern is like a below average snow Winter... transitory, blocks not lasting more than a week. Models quickly blow up the SE ridge. A lot of this last year. On 10/29/2017 at 2:29 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Just horrible pattern on models through Nov 15. The phases at this time of year are predictable - it could really be until January until we have a solid cold-snow pattern. On 10/29/2017 at 7:41 PM, StormchaserChuck said: It's just veering toward warm and snowless. On 11/2/2017 at 7:29 AM, StormchaserChuck said: Long range GFS ensembles look really favorable. I like the progression right now... easy for Greenland ridging. I would guess a below average temperature Winter. On 11/5/2017 at 8:17 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Back to not as favorable. On 11/8/2017 at 8:32 AM, StormchaserChuck said: Models have gravitated toward more -PNA in the medium range. Negative AO/NAO doesn't really show up until after day 10. If verified good, but there can be a lot of changes. Kind of a 5/10 signal on models today wrt Winter On 11/9/2017 at 6:10 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Positive PNA is good chance... -AAM moving toward the poles could do this. On 11/10/2017 at 0:00 AM, StormchaserChuck said: ^Maybe we're overlooking how warm the globe is right now. Wow. 27 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Stratospheric vortex is forecasted to not catch the warming and bomb out a bit in the long range, -AAM tendency to the poles to catch a break. Probably some good +5 to +10 anomalies early to mid December... So I have openly criticized people like JB who put out one forecast and then dogmatically stick with it no matter if there is a plethora of objective evidence to show otherwise. However, and at the risk of being a hypocrite, you are the exact opposite of the spectrum. Your points about the trends aren't wrong, but you change your opinion so often and easily with ever flip of the guidance that it makes it hard to take each point seriously. I am not saying your latest winter forecast is wrong, you are actually now more aligned with my thinking then you were, but when you have flipped back and forth from cold to warm every few days for the last 2 months why would people take your latest ideas more seriously then they took you when you were throwing 95/96 around then saying snowless, then cold and snowy again.... Hopefully this is taken as constructive criticism and not trolling. (I admit the ping pong picture was a bit of shade but meant to be in good fun) For the record I am still where I have always been, skeptical of our chances of a good winter. The overwhelming majority of data and evidence on similar winters to the one we are heading into ended badly for our area. There were a few fluke outliers and we can always be hopeful that we beat the odds and end up with something like that, I will never give up until its truly OVER...you all know I chase every flake to the bitter end, but I wouldn't put my money on a lot of snow this year. The models have shown some good signs, and I still hold out some hope, but I am not putting TOO MUCH into the favorable NAO period nor am I going to jump off a cliff over the possible coming unfavorable NAO period. However, if we revert into a strong positive NAO and it locks in and come December 1 we are staring down a prolonged torch with no end in sight, then I will be ready to make the final trigger pull that this will be another year where we struggle and fight just to eek our way to something respectable and avoid another disaster like 2016-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 Nice post @psuhoffman. It's nice seeing a legit -NAO because we haven't seen many in a heck of a long time but by itself it really doesn't tell us much as we roll through DJF. The chances of a NS dominant winter are pretty high. So much so that I would say it's pretty likely. 13-14 and 14-15 were pretty amazing NS dominant winters but they were mold breakers in a huge way. Recency bias will come into play this winter. I'm sure of it if we see some -epo and or -NAO periods and cold in the east. However, NS winters have the MA on the outside looking in over 80% of the time. It takes more than blocking and cold to make things work with NS winters. We'll always be fighting track and/or re-development. I like what we're seeing right now and it makes me feel a little more confident that this winter won't feature another raging +AO/NAO but that doesn't mean we're going to get plastered. It's still too early to get a good read on things. I checked the CPC analogs today and it's interesting that the closest matches to the upcoming pattern weren't very good winters. The CPC analogs aren't meant for long range forecasting but it does show that the upcoming Nov pattern has happened multiple times in the past with nostsogreat winters. Only 2 of the winters (81-82/63-64) on the list above was AN with snow. The rest were pretty blah. I'm not making any long range predictions with the CPC analogs though. Just pointing out that the current encouraging pattern doesn't correlate well with big winters in general so we can't jump to any conclusions yet. In 2-3 weeks we'll know if Dec is going to be an uphill battle or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Judah Cohen starred in another CWG article, where yet again he predicts a cold and snowy winter for the East Coast. Maybe the 50/50 coin flip will be on his side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Long term models really starting to look ugly in the Pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: Long term models really starting to look ugly in the Pacific I hear the screen name snowman20 is available. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hear the screen name snowman20 is available. Just sayin'. It follows a pattern of AAM, which is cyclical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: Long term models really starting to look ugly in the Pacific Just like 95/96 huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I agree that this season will be N stream dominant. You guys are going to need the NAO, and I think it will exist enough to prevent a virtual shutout down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree that this season will be N stream dominant. You guys are going to need the NAO, and I think it will exist enough to prevent a virtual shutout down there. I hope you are correct. I see a pretty significant predicted snowfall gradient between DC and Philly in your seasonal forecast. I wonder whether there will be a surpressed storm track allowing DC to score a bigger hit. On a side note, I do not like the sound of " enough to prevent a virtual shutout " :-( By all means lets prevent that. Good luck with your seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Maybe an awesome arctic blast the first week of December. La Nina is not like others - it's calculated in a box 5S to 5N- in the middle of the box is -1.5c, at 5 degrees, +0.5. Looks of convolution upstream I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Maybe an awesome arctic blast the first week of December. La Nina is not like others - it's calculated in a box 5S to 5N- in the middle of the box is -1.5c, at 5 degrees, +0.5. Looks of convolution upstream I think and constant model shifts. Interesting ......and there also seems to also be some changes going on in the NE Pac SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting ......and there also seems to also be some changes going on in the NE Pac SSTs Looking at the 7 anomaly changes it looks pretty muddled. Doesn't look like the Pacific knows what it wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 JB2 posted his winter outlook FWIW. Basically normal snowfall and below normal temps. YMMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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