Winter 2017-18 Disco

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Anyone notice the CFS2 lately for December?  Slight changes.  Lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017110412&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

It was way overdue for a shift to something different. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It was way overdue for a shift to something different. 

Or, it's more model support for a shift to a favorable winter pattern,  which is what I believe.  How about you? 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Or, it's more model support for a shift to a favorable winter pattern,  which is what I believe.  How about you? 

Thats what I would like to believe. Lets see what it does over the next several runs. It has been rock steady with the "bad look" in recent runs after previously flipping around, but maybe it has caught on.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Back to not as favorable. 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Back to not as favorable. 

Model hugger! Lol

[aldie 22]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Back to not as favorable. 

Let's see who bites

[Cobalt]

Looking much better compared to last year

 

 

[showmethesnow]

55 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Looking much better compared to last year

 

 

One of the things I have liked seeing this fall is the snow cover building in Canada. Think we will have plenty of cold nearby this winter to tap into if we can just get the trough/ridging placement through the CONUS to cooperate.

[WxUSAF]

Canada is typically cold in Nina’s. Which is why we can get some cold shots, even if things end up warm in the balance.

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Canada is typically cold in Nina’s. Which is why we can get some cold shots, even if things end up warm in the balance.

True, but I still like to see a good snow pack. Helps to create a deep dense layer of cold that isn't easily scoured out nor do you have the temp issues at mid-levels that quite often occurs with shallow cold. And it seems in recent years it has been a fight to get decent snow pack in Canada.

[WxUSAF]

36 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

True, but I still like to see a good snow pack. Helps to create a deep dense layer of cold that isn't easily scoured out nor do you have the temp issues at mid-levels that quite often occurs with shallow cold. And it seems in recent years it has been a fight to get decent snow pack in Canada.

Oh I don't disagree.  Certainly better than the alternative.  I particularly hope the snow pack builds up in Ontario and Quebec.  

[NorthArlington101]

[mappy]

I got 12" last year, so I will gladly take 18-30"

[aldie 22]

I'd prefer more

[showmethesnow]

59 minutes ago, mappy said:

I got 12" last year, so I will gladly take 18-30"

Talking snow I hope.

[Scraff]

If we can get started by Thanksgiving, those numbers could be blown out of the water.  I’ll certainly take 20, but 12. Meh. Anyway, looking forward to our first big GFS happy hour runs followed by a good NAMing. 

[RIC_WX]

1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Talking snow I hope.

Hey now. Stop stealing my job.

[mappy]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Talking snow I hope.

RR liking this cracked me up more. But yes. Obviously. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

As long as at least a few of those 18-30" come in December, than I will be perfectly happy with this.

[fountainguy97]

Good grief the GFS really really wants someone to see snow in late November haha

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

1984-5 and 2005-6 are the analogs mentioned, but the subjective forecast clearly supports the 1984-5 analog in terms of pattern progression.

The 84-85 analog showed up a long time ago when looking at enso conditions that were forecast.  Interesting that it's still there.

[RIC_WX]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 84-85 analog showed up a long time ago when looking at enso conditions that were forecast.  Interesting that it's still there.

2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January.  Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same.  Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

29 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

2005 flipped on a dime in December, from historically cold the first 23 days or so to uninhibited warmth beginning around the holidays into early / mid January.  Winter didn't really return until February, and even then it was never quite the same.  Pretty sure 1984-5 was the same play, but in reverse.  

Yeah, my memories of the last half of winter in 1985 are good ones.  The cold outbreak was incredible 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models have gravitated toward more -PNA in the medium range. Negative AO/NAO doesn't really show up until after day 10. If verified good, but there can be a lot of changes. Kind of a 5/10 signal on models today wrt Winter

[BristowWx]

23 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Models have gravitated toward more -PNA in the medium range. Negative AO/NAO doesn't really show up until after day 10. If verified good, but there can be a lot of changes. Kind of a 5/10 signal on models today wrt Winter

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

a pattern full of bowling balls, clippers, and the occsionally well timed SWFE.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

What kind of pattern does a -PNA -AO -NAO usually yield for us?  The +PNA -AO/NAO is great but sometimes just gives us dry and cold unless something can dig and turn negative. 

The 60's were loaded with them. Generally speaking, HL blocking and a -PNA is a wintry pattern for the bulk of the conus except for the far SW. It's not a clean pattern for our region but further north loves it. The majority of the years with a -ao/-pna combo reached climo snow in the MA. The short story is a -pna isn't nearly as big of a deal with a -ao winter as it is with a +ao one. That combo is a death knell. 

[SnowLover22]

The 60's were loaded with them. Generally speaking, HL blocking and a -PNA is a wintry pattern for the bulk of the conus except for the far SW. It's not a clean pattern for our region but further north loves it. The majority of the years with a -ao/-pna combo reached climo snow in the MA. The short story is a -pna isn't nearly as big of a deal with a -ao winter as it is with a +ao one. That combo is a death knell. 

How about a +EPO, -PNA,-AO,-NAO


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[Bob Chill]

35 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

How about a +EPO, -PNA,-AO,-NAO


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Generally speaking, a numerical +epo will coincide with a -pna because of domain space overlap more often than not but certainly not always. Depends on the location of the +EPO trough axis though. If we have a big GOA vortex then the only thing a -AO/NAO will displace is Pac maritime air. If the +EPO trough is centered more over land like AK then it's different because cold air can still build in Canada. 

I'm not big on using numerical indices for sensible wx. Best to use the h5 height panels because they tell the real story versus numerical stuff. The answer to your question is sometimes it can suck and sometimes it can be serviceable.