Winter 2017-18 Disco

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. 

The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. 

The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. 

I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. 

 

About a month ago I parsed every month in the analog set we were working with and found only a few months that managed snow without a -nao. And 2014 had 2/3 of those months I think. So absent getting some crazy off the chart anamoly in the epo or some similar freak event it's pretty clear that this winter we need nao help or it's a total no go close up shop setup. You know I'm not a pessimist but i also look at the data and it's clear we are in big trouble given the known variables if the nao doesn't cooperate. And the early signs aren't good. 

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Be careful with the "it can't be worse". One of the analogs is 1950 and that was the worst snowfall total up here. Only 3.5". Last year I nickel and dimed my way to 20" at least. Not sure how bad it was in D.C. But I'm pretty sure it was a snowless winter for most of the mid Atlantic. 

Sure it could always be worse, but we had plenty of bad luck too. Despite the persistent bad overall pattern, we had some decent periods that just didn't produce. And there was a cold powdery 10" snowstorm on the beaches in early January with a solid week of cold temps. Even in a bad winter, there will be chances.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

About a month ago I parsed every month in the analog set we were working with and found only a few months that managed snow without a -nao. And 2014 had 2/3 of those months I think. So absent getting some crazy off the chart anamoly in the epo or some similar freak event it's pretty clear that this winter we need nao help or it's a total no go close up shop setup. You know I'm not a pessimist but i also look at the data and it's clear we are in big trouble given the known variables if the nao doesn't cooperate. And the early signs aren't good. 

Agree. I think most here realize without a favorable AO/NAO for a solid chunk of met winter we would need a ton of luck and a fluke event or 2 to pull off something near climo.

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

WeatherOptics winter forecast....

http://www.weatheroptics.net/top-stories/winter-is-only-a-month-away-and-heres-what-you-can-expect

That is actually not a bad forecast at all. I would sign up for that in a heart beat. What is their track record?

[poolz1]

9 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

That is actually not a bad forecast at all. I would sign up for that in a heart beat. What is their track record?

I really have no idea....Just started following them this year.  It sounds to me that it pretty much echoes what others in here have been saying.  "it all depends on bouts of -AO/NAO"

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Long range GFS ensembles look really favorable. I like the progression right now... easy for Greenland ridging. I would guess a below average temperature Winter. 

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Long range GFS ensembles look really favorable. I like the progression right now... easy for Greenland ridging. I would guess a below average temperature Winter. 

Lots of people with their mouths open and not knowing what to say right now.  Lol

[ORH_wxman]

20 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

One of the reasons H5 is "more important" on longer range model guidance is because it verifies better than surface temps. Surface temps have so many variables that can affect them...and thus, they score much lower on model guidance. Typically, when we look at H5 and extrapolate our own temperatures, we will actually score better than models at the surface.

Now I say this with the caveat that in your instance, it was a 2-4 month prog which is even further outside the typical model skill range. There is probably very low skill at both H5 and surface at that time lead.

[WVhighlands]

First time post with an amateur question here...  I've been following this forum the last two winters and have learned a lot--kudos to you all. 

I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on the differences in projections for this winter for west of the Allegheny Front in WV.  Most 2017-2018 winter outlooks (NWS, Accuweather, the Weather Optics one above)  that have been posted thus far basically call for decent cold and normal to above normal snow in the great lakes region with below normal/warm in the mid-Atlantic.  Often that boundary line is drawn right through the Ohio valley at the Ohio/WV border up into NW PA.  Living right west of the Allegheny Front (Canaan Valley area), we get lots of lake effect snow and the front tends to divide the weather systems east and west.  I would be surprised if that cold/mild, lots of snow/less snow dividing line was actually the Ohio river vs being the Allegheny Front itself.  On the other hand, in last winter this pattern often played out with us getting rain to snow events when lower elevations 100 miles north in PA got snow.  

Would love to hear anyone's thoughts.  Thanks much.

[psuhoffman]

On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 1:02 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

-NAO seems to be solid lock, 75-80% I'd say

 

On ‎10‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 9:45 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

I think it works to advantage that the Nina is having trouble getting Strong. It will likely stay this way, maybe from the reverse perspective this is -NAO tendency winning out, B->A

 

On ‎10‎/‎25‎/‎2017 at 10:41 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

Nice work, but I'm left feeling empty? There is really nothing of substance predictor-wise. Maybe some analogs? This is a favorable MJO time for modeled pattern, so I don't know if this is anything but piece of a whole cycle. 

 

On ‎10‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 2:56 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

Yup... retrograding pattern on models. Nothing special about this cold time, as it relates to the Winter. Short MJO correlated cycle

 

On ‎10‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 10:16 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

Pattern is like a below average snow Winter... transitory, blocks not lasting more than a week. Models quickly blow up the SE ridge. A lot of this last year. 

 

On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 2:29 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

Just horrible pattern on models through Nov 15. The phases at this time of year are predictable - it could really be until January until we have a solid cold-snow pattern. 

 

On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2017 at 7:41 PM, StormchaserChuck said:

It's just veering toward warm and snowless. 

 

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Long range GFS ensembles look really favorable. I like the progression right now... easy for Greenland ridging. I would guess a below average temperature Winter. 

Did you get stuck on the whiplash ride at the fair?  Should we call for help?

[fountainguy97]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did you get stuck on the whiplash ride at the fair?  Should we call for help?

I think it’s more that the models now see past the +nao and are hinting at a turn toward neutral across many teleconnections by November 15... 

 

we couldnt see that 2days ago.

[fountainguy97]

I’ll take this look going into mid/late November. 

 

and ill take this nina look too.

 

 

Now this is a nice east based Niña currently

 

 

remeber we want this look to hold well into November. If the “warmer” ocean stays in western ENSO region it helps us negate Niña blocking. And even encourage a pattern that could look more niño than nina

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I think it’s more that the models now see past the +nao and are hinting at a turn toward neutral across many teleconnections by November 15... 

 

we couldnt see that 2days ago.

The pattern does look better. My point was flipping your whole outlook every 2/3 days with the models seems a bit extreme.  Maybe we need to just let this month play out before going all in or doom and gloom. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern does look better. My point was flipping your whole outlook every 2/3 days with the models seems a bit extreme.  Maybe we need to just let this month play out before going all in or doom and gloom. 

It gets better than his post in this thread

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50292-negative-nao-winter/#comment-4657062

 

[fountainguy97]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The pattern does look better. My point was flipping your whole outlook every 2/3 days with the models seems a bit extreme.  Maybe we need to just let this month play out before going all in or doom and gloom. 

Exactly. I try to only flip once if I even have too. If u flip every two days I don’t know how u stay sane haha

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WVhighlands said:

First time post with an amateur question here...  I've been following this forum the last two winters and have learned a lot--kudos to you all. 

I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on the differences in projections for this winter for west of the Allegheny Front in WV.  Most 2017-2018 winter outlooks (NWS, Accuweather, the Weather Optics one above)  that have been posted thus far basically call for decent cold and normal to above normal snow in the great lakes region with below normal/warm in the mid-Atlantic.  Often that boundary line is drawn right through the Ohio valley at the Ohio/WV border up into NW PA.  Living right west of the Allegheny Front (Canaan Valley area), we get lots of lake effect snow and the front tends to divide the weather systems east and west.  I would be surprised if that cold/mild, lots of snow/less snow dividing line was actually the Ohio river vs being the Allegheny Front itself.  On the other hand, in last winter this pattern often played out with us getting rain to snow events when lower elevations 100 miles north in PA got snow.  

Would love to hear anyone's thoughts.  Thanks much.

Nina climo is generally northern stream dominant and even with no blocking, cold intrusions at times fit the general climo. Since you rely more on orographic verses synoptic storms at your location, it's reasonable to expect closer to normal in the snow department than areas east of the apps. Like with most winters, there are be large variations in how it shakes out. If the pac sucks and the pac jet scorches the earth then we'll all suck an egg for snow. If the pac cooperates and we get some periods of a -EPO then you could do very well with upslope events as well as juiced clippers and things like that. 

Anyone who pulls off a +climo snow for winter south of 40N will likely be the beneficiary of good fortune moreso than good patterns. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern does look better. My point was flipping your whole outlook every 2/3 days with the models seems a bit extreme.  Maybe we need to just let this month play out before going all in or doom and gloom. 

I'm not changing my mind until the pattern flips in real time. Until we actually have something positive to discuss in the short range I'm not latching onto anything the models dish out in the long range. I might be old but my memory is good enough to clearly remember last year. lol

[fountainguy97]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not changing my mind until the pattern flips in real time. Until we actually have something positive to discuss in the short range I'm not latching onto anything the models dish out in the long range. I might be old but my memory is good enough to clearly remember last year. lol

Very good point. I fully “expect” a pattern flip but when it comes down to it thats ultimately a “guess.”   The safe call is go with typical La Niña climate. 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It gets better than his post in this thread

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50292-negative-nao-winter/#comment-4657062

 

Wow...  have to wonder if he is trolling/doing that on purpose to mess with weenies. 

[Mason Dixon]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern does look better. My point was flipping your whole outlook every 2/3 days with the models seems a bit extreme.  Maybe we need to just let this month play out before going all in or doom and gloom. 

Going all doom and gloom??? That already happened the other night when the Cansips sent some down searching the titanic for a bed to sleep in 

[mattie g]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wow...  have to wonder if he is trolling/doing that on purpose to mess with weenies. 

But he has a point. 95/96 is a decent analog. Let's run with it and see where it takes us.

[mattie g]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Be careful with the "it can't be worse". One of the analogs is 1950 and that was the worst snowfall total up here. Only 3.5". Last year I nickel and dimed my way to 20" at least. Not sure how bad it was in D.C. But I'm pretty sure it was a snowless winter for most of the mid Atlantic. 

3.4" in DC in 1949-50, which just so happens to be what DCA got last year.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not changing my mind until the pattern flips in real time. Until we actually have something positive to discuss in the short range I'm not latching onto anything the models dish out in the long range. I might be old but my memory is good enough to clearly remember last year. lol

Yup...plus even if things do flip it doesn't mean that will be the predominant winter pattern.  It's too early for this kind of extreme flip flopping. I'm totally willing to edit my thinking as evidence becomes available but going from one extreme to another with every good model run is not productive. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

But he has a point. 95/96 is a decent analog. Let's run with it and see where it takes us.

Yea but when just a few days ago he was cancelling winter it loses some of its impact. I think some are missing my point. Things do look better today then 3 days ago. And there are some decent trends in the PDO and other factors that could help us. But going from one extreme to another every 48 hours seems to be a bit much. We need to let this play out a bit. 

[Bob Chill]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup...plus even if things do flip it doesn't mean that will be the predominant winter pattern.  It's too early for this kind of extreme flip flopping. I'm totally willing to edit my thinking as evidence becomes available but going from one extreme to another with every good model run is not productive. 

 GFS/GEFS have done a 180 with the AO/NAO in just a couple days. The interesting thing is it gets started before d10. Check this out. Just 2 days ago it was raging + for the entire 15 days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The current spike positive was completely missed even at 7 day leads.  The verification panels show it pretty starkly. "Turbulent" is a good adjective for what is going on in the high latitudes. The numerical indices use 1000mb pressure levels so it's always good to look at MSLP panels and not just h5 (I know you know this. Just reminding everyone). 

This op panel is interesting. It's been at least 3-4 runs in a row showing extensive pressure rises in areas that we want to see that happening

 

 

GEFS MSLP panel is interesting at range too. Look at the HUGE siberian HP. That can be a pre-cursor to blocking over the pole. I'm not biting on anything until we're inside of 7 days but at least there's SOMETHING encouraging to discuss. I don't give a crap about Nov sensible wx in my yard. It's all about the evolution in the Pac and way up above us as we move through the month. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 GFS/GEFS have done a 180 with the AO/NAO in just a couple days. The interesting thing is it gets started before d10. Check this out. Just 2 days ago it was raging + for the entire 15 days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The current spike positive was completely missed even at 7 day leads.  The verification panels show it pretty starkly. "Turbulent" is a good adjective for what is going on in the high latitudes. The numerical indices use 1000mb pressure levels so it's always good to look at MSLP panels and not just h5 (I know you know this. Just reminding everyone). 

This op panel is interesting. It's been at least 3-4 runs in a row showing extensive pressure rises in areas that we want to see that happening

 

 

GEFS MSLP panel is interesting at range too. Look at the HUGE siberian HP. That can be a pre-cursor to blocking over the pole. I'm not biting on anything until we're inside of 7 days but at least there's SOMETHING encouraging to discuss. I don't give a crap about Nov sensible wx in my yard. It's all about the evolution in the Pac and way up above us as we move through the month. 

 

 

 

 

 

Great discussion as usual guys. I always poke around in here because y'all make some great points. As you said the NAO and AO "look" to take a big dive which as has been said the models had really been overdoing these blocking patterns in the the winter for several years now. The thing I am looking at is the PNA which does not want to cooperate. I think unless we get the PAC NW to change we will be fighting an uphill battle. I like the real time analogy also. Very true.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 GFS/GEFS have done a 180 with the AO/NAO in just a couple days. The interesting thing is it gets started before d10. Check this out. Just 2 days ago it was raging + for the entire 15 days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

The current spike positive was completely missed even at 7 day leads.  The verification panels show it pretty starkly. "Turbulent" is a good adjective for what is going on in the high latitudes. The numerical indices use 1000mb pressure levels so it's always good to look at MSLP panels and not just h5 (I know you know this. Just reminding everyone). 

This op panel is interesting. It's been at least 3-4 runs in a row showing extensive pressure rises in areas that we want to see that happening

 

 

GEFS MSLP panel is interesting at range too. Look at the HUGE siberian HP. That can be a pre-cursor to blocking over the pole. I'm not biting on anything until we're inside of 7 days but at least there's SOMETHING encouraging to discuss. I don't give a crap about Nov sensible wx in my yard. It's all about the evolution in the Pac and way up above us as we move through the month. 

 

 

 

 

 

Yea the last 48 hours have been some good signs regarding blocking and the larger NAM pattern.  Meanwhile the PDO in general has slowly bled in a better direction the last 30 days to being pretty ambiguous vs negative.  The nina has remained mostly east based to this point and that could be positive if it holds.  There are some good signs showing up.  I think some mistook my poking fun at Chuck as taking a negative position.  I was not.  I see the good signs.  I am just not going to over react to them right now, just like I wasn't all over the board cancelling winter earlier this week when things looked bleak.  The models are flip flopping all over lately.  We are in a volatile time period.  And its way too early to give definitive statements after ever model run.  I like what I see, and if things continue in this direction I will feel better about the winter. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Great discussion as usual guys. I always poke around in here because y'all make some great points. As you said the NAO and AO "look" to take a big dive which as has been said the models had really been overdoing these blocking patterns in the the winter for several years now. The thing I am looking at is the PNA which does not want to cooperate. I think unless we get the PAC NW to change we will be fighting an uphill battle. I like the real time analogy also. Very true.

I wouldn't worry about the PNA pattern yet. November is a big transition month. Mid-latitude patterns are very volatile and the PNA almost always oscillates even in winter. Not saying that a nasty -pna is nothing to worry about just that for right now ups and downs in the PNA region are about as normal as the trees turning colors. I wouldn't expect the current -PNA pattern to last more than a couple weeks before flipping + or going neutral again. We'll start to get a feel for what type of persistence we'll see during the winter once we get into mid Dec. Nina climo generally favors a -pna on the means for DJF but that definitely doesn't mean a -pna for all 3 months. 

I try to keep it simple in Nov and just keep an eye out for persistence in the higher latitudes. One thing that can ruin our hopes and dreams is a big strong vortex over AK or the GOA. Even a -nao can't offset that. So far so good. We also don't want to see a strong +AO set up shop during Nov (especially second half). Models are trying to scare us with that but have backed down a couple notches recently. 

The NAO is inherently volatile and hard to predict. The domain space is very small in comparison to other indices and it's also probably the most difficult to predict even at 7-10 day leads. It's best to focus on the AO. Since the AO and NAO share some domain space, a -AO will usually result in a less hostile NAO. Doesn't always mean a -ao comes with a -nao but when the ao it negative, it's very uncommon for the nao to be strongly positive. 

[Mason Dixon]

15 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

About a month ago I parsed every month in the analog set we were working with and found only a few months that managed snow without a -nao. And 2014 had 2/3 of those months I think. So absent getting some crazy off the chart anamoly in the epo or some similar freak event it's pretty clear that this winter we need nao help or it's a total no go close up shop setup. You know I'm not a pessimist but i also look at the data and it's clear we are in big trouble given the known variables if the nao doesn't cooperate. And the early signs aren't good. 

Now just last night you said you didn't like the signs. Now you say you do. Which is it???? 

[fountainguy97]

This always happens during patterns that are hostile to snow.  Don’t jump ship yet! Remeber November can be as raging +nao as it wants.   The key is to focus on model trends in the 200-280hr range.    Gfs can be useful past that for vague generalized patterns but the focus is that 240 range for us. In 10 days we will be coming up on this possible shift toward a better pattern so the next 5 days will have TONS to reveal.

 

AND I might add that the key is not hugging every model run.  Check in once a day and look at the trends over the last 4+ runs.  This far out that’s plenty of model watching haha