Bob Chill Posted June 20, 2017 Author Share Posted June 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 13/14 was neutral and all of the typical indices looked like carp, but that winter turned out great Yea, we blew our anomalous luck load for the next 10 years with that winter. Get ready for another single digit snowfall year. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 13 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we blew our anomalous luck load for the next 10 years with that winter. Get ready for another single digit snowfall year. It's coming. I'll run with the "who the he!! really knows at this point" postulate and adjust come fall, or late fall, or even winter if need be! Lol Early gut call (now there's some science for you) will rest on blocking, or lack thereof, as holding the key to our fate with other indices hovering near neutral. Weak sun will definitely be in our corner. That and the now likely east QBO are a decent combo for the needed blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Point in fact, you know we will get blocking. In May 2018. Like the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Anybody got snowfall data for IAD since it opened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anybody got snowfall data for IAD since it opened? http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Using IAD data (only available from 62-63) and the list of neutral years (-0.5 to 0.5), I have an average of 25.5 and a median of 24.3. I think I'll say I don't agree with Bobs prediction of single digit snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Using IAD data (only available from 62-63) and the list of neutral years (-0.5 to 0.5), I have an average of 25.5 and a median of 24.3. I think I'll say I don't agree with Bobs prediction of single digit snow this year. This is the year legit winter time NA blocking returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 One problem with seasonal is we don't have enough sample size to get much statistical significance from the results. I'm not poo pooing it. There are some definite conclusions. Modoki nino good. Strong East based not so much. Nina and west qbo bad combo. But there are more variables that play off each other then a 50-100 year sample can account for and come up with good data conclusions for each combo. The results are too skewed by flukes or anamolies when one factory dominates the others and throws off the typical results for a given set of peramiters perhaps. That said, when we start to see multiple bad indices showing up then it could spell trouble. Not there yet but losing the prospect of a west based nino is one duck falling on the wrong side of the ledger. Still have time to see other factors line up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. If we can get the warming to migrate to the Pole, then we'll get some blocking (assuming, of course, the warmth can find its way into the higher regions of the atmosphere.) And don't stay away from the Board for 5 years only to come back with a weenie, heart breaking post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. That's exactly what happened this past winter. Any signals for next winter will likely be nearly nonexistent until at least autumn and until one of the long-range signals un-neutralize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 On 6/26/2017 at 8:20 AM, StormchaserChuck said: Winter after Strong Nino are very warm, mostly because the Earth warms so much in that year. Sometimes strong blocking like 92-93 can occur, but these are probably the easiest long range forecasts using science. Exactly why I'd like a neutral-cold neutral. I want a colder winter. Couldn't care less about big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 This seasonally cool pattern reminds me of the first week of July 2009, but the big difference unfortunately is at 500mb where the upper levels are nearly opposite... I would upload images if the file size restrictions weren't so low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 using BWI numbers not all winters were mild after a strong el nino winter...1983-84 was colder than normal...1973-74 was a degree above the norm...1998-99 almost three above...2016-17 was 6.5 above...years after some not as strong el nino's like 1958-59, 2003-04 and 2010-11 were below the norm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 On 6/27/2017 at 8:55 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: ... Couldn't care less about big snowstorms. Can't decide whether this is sarcasm or blasphemy. With a handle like "WINTERWXLUVR" and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 It's been a long time (Jan 2011?) since we had a rain->mix-> snow event that really socked the area pretty hard. That would be fun to have...follow it up with a day or two of deep cold that doesn't let anything melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 21 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said: Can't decide whether this is sarcasm or blasphemy. With a handle like "WINTERWXLUVR" and all... Haha, I prefer consistent cold and frequent winter wx to the once and done snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 3, 2017 Author Share Posted July 3, 2017 CANSIPs has a nice Dec look. It's been consistent with the aleutian low/-nao type of look for a couple cycles now. This isn't a big cold pattern but it's certainly a decent winter wx pattern for the MA. Storm track would be just fine with this. All 3 winter months look decent. Feb is a big -EPO look. We know how that can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I need to break a bad habit of jumping to early conclusions. The current trend in solar flux is bittersweet. We have a ways to go, but when we get there it will be worth the wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: 09-10 looks like the top analog to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 09-10 looks like the top analog to me. I took a second look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 09-10 looks like the top analog to me. Unfortunately 07-08 and 08-09 are better solar analogs. 2019-2020 is lookin pretty sweet tho. 10 year anniversary as an added bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately 07-08 and 08-09 are better solar analogs. 2019-2020 is lookin pretty sweet tho. 10 year anniversary as an added bonus. I think even 1 more step back from that when considering where we are currently and when the last time the same value was reached while having a downtrend. I really jumped the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 6:17 PM, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately 07-08 and 08-09 are better solar analogs. 2019-2020 is lookin pretty sweet tho. 10 year anniversary as an added bonus. Still, 17/18 is pretty low solar output and an east QBO should finally yield us some useful blocking.....some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 15, 2017 Share Posted July 15, 2017 Latest Enso discussion. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Bastardi is touting the MEI as showing a healthy NINO ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 16, 2017 Share Posted July 16, 2017 On 7/15/2017 at 6:41 AM, showmethesnow said: Latest Enso discussion. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml Bastardi is touting the MEI as showing a healthy NINO ongoing. Never say never, I suppose. Sure seems it's gonna take a rabbit from the hat to pull off a winter Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 16, 2017 Author Share Posted July 16, 2017 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Never say never, I suppose. Sure seems it's gonna take a rabbit from the hat to pull off a winter Nino. In another month, long range enso models should start painting a decent picture. ECMWF has much better skill scores than the CFS. Warm neutral seems to be the most likely scenario. Latest SSTA chart definitely does not look like a healthy Nino going on right now. Looks pretty much warm neutral with little if any trend showing up the last month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 16, 2017 Share Posted July 16, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In another month, long range enso models should start painting a decent picture. ECMWF has much better skill scores than the CFS. Warm neutral seems to be the most likely scenario. Latest SSTA chart definitely does not look like a healthy Nino going on right now. Looks pretty much warm neutral with little if any trend showing up the last month or so. I'd be ok with a warm neutral. I want to roll the dice with something in the -0.5 to 0.5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 16, 2017 Share Posted July 16, 2017 On 7/9/2017 at 8:27 PM, BTRWx said: I think even 1 more step back from that when considering where we are currently and when the last time the same value was reached while having a downtrend. I really jumped the gun. You're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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