Winter 2017-18 Disco

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Source??

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

[BTRWx]

24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I know it has nothing to do with recent posts but wanted to tie this loose end up.

Levi responded to my email.  There is a monthly SSTA map on tropical tidbits under the Hurricane season Analog tab!

Excellent!

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As Bob pointed out, the CanSIPS seem to do well at a one month lead, i.e. the current run is probably much closer to what will transpire over the next month. Combine that with the current/predicted AO state, and other guidance like the CFS (check out the weeklies), we are likely going to need some serious modification to the pattern as we head into December (again).

Yeah the October forecast from last month was a pretty good match. But anything after that initial month looks like the model reverts to heavily favoring climo, in this case a Nina climo. Which glancing back a couple months doesn't look like it has done that well. So Dec onward I would not be surprised whatsoever if we end up with a totally different look then is now being forecasted. 

Edit: Just wanted to add that I think this is why the Cansips did so well last year. The extended forecast heavily favored Nina climo throughout winter and that is how it played out. I really don't think we are seeing a typical Nina at this point so I have to question whether it will be playing catch up all winter where we can only rely on the initial month on each run.

[Mason Dixon]

59 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't have much value for 2m temps on super long range guidance. I only look at h5. The advertised mean pattern is not a good one for wintry weather in the MA. The "not as warm as expected" surface temps would probably be the result of relatively brief cold/dry periods behind fronts after a storm passes.

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are assuming that is the case. We don't know how January will play out. In fact we don't know how late November will play out. That is why hand ringing over two month model outputs is nothing more than lol

Verbatim, yes. Taking seasonal guidance at 2+ month leads is bad practice. However, the CanSips is doing very well with one month lead. It did very well all last winter and it's doing it again this fall. The d10-15 EPS looks just like the CanSips so there is some support already.

IF Nov features a strong positive AO like guidance is showing, expecting the same in December is a good call. Once a +AO establishes itself it's a good call to go with persistence until it flips in real time and not model land. We've seen that time and time again over the last 3-4 years. The GEFS sucks at d10-14. The AO is verifying well above ens mean guidance in general. Look at the 2 bottom graphs. It's like some sort of switch flipped on 10/1. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

Heh, that's what I tried to post above but in many more words. I like your version better. We don't need a model to extrapolate the Nov panel. We already know how that rolls forward 8 times out of 10. 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, that's what I tried to post above but in many more words. I like your version better. We don't need a model to extrapolate the Nov panel. We already know how that rolls forward 8 times out of 10. 

lol yes.

As for the AO, the last bullet point in the summary of Cohen's latest update pretty much says it all, especially considering his bias.

• The stratospheric polar vortex (PV) looks to be normal to stronger than normal for much of November and this favors milder temperatures at least in the coming weeks and possibly longer.

[Mason Dixon]

54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 The discussion is about the h5 pattern the latest CanSIPS is advertising. I am not assuming anything.

You are assuming it is right. Don't tell me you aren't assuming anything.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

You are assuming it is right. Don't tell me you aren't assuming anything.

You don't seem to be getting the context of the discussion.

re: Advertised +h5 height anomalies and your subjective observation that the advertised surface temps are not as warm as expected. I simply provided an explanation for why that may be the case. My mistake for engaging. Carry on.

[Mason Dixon]

27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You don't seem to be getting the context of the discussion.

re: Advertised +h5 height anomalies and your subjective observation that the advertised surface temps are not as warm as expected. I simply provided an explanation for why that may be the case. My mistake for engaging. Carry on.

But you are basing your thoughts on the Cansips being right 60 days from now. If that isn't assuming something than I don't know what to tell you. Perhaps go look at the CFS forecast for next November I guess. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

But you are basing your thoughts on the Cansips being right 60 days from now. If that isn't assuming something than I don't know what to tell you. Perhaps go look at the CFS forecast for next November I guess. 

No. I'm not.

Friendly advice- read more, and confine your posts to banter until you figure out how things work here.

[Mason Dixon]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No. I'm not.

Friendly advice- read more, and confine your posts to banter until you figure out how things work here.

Wut??? You told me why the Cansips in January look they way they do. since this is only November 1st you damn well are basing your interpretation on them being right. And keep your friendly advice to yourself. I don't want it or need it. 

[mitchnick]

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

great post Bob.  I don't think at this point in time we would believe CanSips or the CFS if it showed an epic pattern. We'd be happy about it but way skeptical.  Last year we saw some great modeled patterns in the long range that never materialized. Not going to worry just yet. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, winterymix said:

 

Lake Tahoe to Detroit winter

When is it not?

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Mason Dixon said:

Wut??? You told me why the Cansips in January look they way they do. since this is only November 1st you damn well are basing your interpretation on them being right. And keep your friendly advice to yourself. I don't want it or need it. 

You should listen to the advice.  There have been many who have learned the hard way that you don't go into another forum and stir up stuff.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Sorry for starting trouble.  Lol

Look,  I know many take the position that 2m temps shouldn't be considered in seasonal models,  only 5h. I don't agree.  I believe one should consider upper air and surface products simply to see if they are consistent.  If not, that gives me pause.  Now, I don't think anyone can know why the 2 products are inconsistent, only guess. In short, 5h normally rules the roost, but the surface and 5h are inconsistent on the Cansips.  Does it mean the surface product is wrong or the 5h? Is it a garbage run? We'll see. But in a month we'll forget about what this run says. Lol

So you started this, huh?  Should have known. 

[North Balti Zen]

It feels like our default D/J/F pattern now is a raging +AO/NAO to ruin winter and then a complete block when we don't want it in M/A/M to ruin spring.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, no trouble. We wrangle. It's what we do. 

Smoothing probably plays a role in what you are seeing. CanSips is around +2F for Dec at 2 month leads but it's very rare when multi month lead stuff shows large departures because of smoothing. If Dec mean h5 verifies I can pretty much guaranty the month ends up warmer than +2F. CanSips nailed h5 for Oct but temps for the 10/1 run were +3-3.5F. Actual temp anom was +5-5.5 around the region. 

This is nitpicking and dancing around the elephant though. Dec h5 is a horrendous pattern for snow. That is the much bigger issue than debating +2 or 4 or whatever temp wise. The CanSips isn't the only model showing a grotesque pattern. CFS looks basically the same. Am I hanging my hat on it? No, not at all. Long lead modeling is inherently inaccurate because we're far from having the technology for accuracy at that kind of range. You know I'll be the first to point out a good pattern on any model at any lead. Unfortunately not a single one does at 2 week, 1 month, or seasonal leads. There is consensus though. They ALL suck. lol

The gefs pattern starting from around day 7 to day 10 starts to be less hostile and with a few tweaks (GOA) would at least probably be a chilly pattern.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It feels like our default D/J/F pattern now is a raging +AO/NAO to ruin winter and then a complete block when we don't want it in M/A/M to ruin spring.

Winter blocking is a myth until proven otherwise.

[North Balti Zen]

How it goes at this point:

Dec - good lord it's warm

Jan - pattern change gonna be here any minute now

Feb - wow, the Tulip Trees are in bud

March - pushing 0 on March 24 and all the cherry blossoms are dead along with every other spring bloom

April - 43 and east wind for weeks, NPZ running victory laps on how awesome it is while everyone else tries to decide if it's justifiable to have him killed

May - 53 and east wind for days, people wonder why thunderstorms no longer occur in the Mid-Atl, and then straight to 93 and above for highs by May 20.

 

[NorthArlington101]

How it goes at this point:

Dec - good lord it's warm

Jan - pattern change gonna be here any minute now

Feb - wow, the Tulip Trees are in bud

March - pushing 0 on March 24 and all the cherry blossoms are dead along with every other spring bloom

April - 43 and east wind for weeks, NPZ running victory laps on how awesome it is while everyone else tries to decide if it's justifiable to have him killed

May - 53 and east wind for days, people wonder why thunderstorms no longer occur in the Mid-Atl, and then straight to 93 and above for highs by May 20.

 

March is the new best winter month. Haven't you heard?

[WxUSAF]

Apparently the CMC just had a big upgrade today which should improve medium range skill per tropical tidbits guru Levi. 

Bottom line: go all in on any day 8+ CMC blizzard.

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Apparently the CMC just had a big upgrade today which should improve medium range skill per tropical tidbits guru Levi. 

Bottom line: go all in on any day 8+ CMC blizzard.

you mean we weren't supposed to before today  

 

[BTRWx]

You know something big is going to happen when this thread has over 900 posts on November 1.

[psuhoffman]

On 10/31/2017 at 0:03 PM, fountainguy97 said:

I also did a lot of reasearch on modoki winter years. My conclusion from that was we want/need a cold 1.2 region to have hopes for a Niña year.  A Central pacific (modoki) Niña gives us a lot of warmth and ridging while east pacific leans toward -nao helping us out.

I found the same last year when doing research for winter, that regardless of Nino or Nina it seems we want the central tropical PAC warmer then to the east. Modoki Nino still is better then east based Nina but the concept is the same that we want the Warner water anomalies centered to the west to give us the forcing we want in winter. 

[psuhoffman]

23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time.

For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but  there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now.

Be careful with the "it can't be worse". One of the analogs is 1950 and that was the worst snowfall total up here. Only 3.5". Last year I nickel and dimed my way to 20" at least. Not sure how bad it was in D.C. But I'm pretty sure it was a snowless winter for most of the mid Atlantic. 

[poolz1]

WeatherOptics winter forecast....

http://www.weatheroptics.net/top-stories/winter-is-only-a-month-away-and-heres-what-you-can-expect