fountainguy97 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I've seen that mentioned several times now. My guess is that everything is relative. In a modoki Nino, the warmth/upward forcing is centered further west near the dateline, which is where we (in the Mid Atl) want it. In a Nina where the coldest temps are in region 1+2 cause the "relative warmth" to be centered westward near the dateline. The forcing is not as great as what you get in a Modoki Nino, but it still gives us (MA) better results. EXACTLY. Couldn’t of said it better myself haha. Unfortunately a shift in trade winds over the next week could cool down the 3.4 region but I’m not seeing an “explosive” cooling but more of a sustaining or slow cooling cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: +sn -sn Current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Current Thanks! I'll update the maps to show the arctic region. eta: Do you have a monthly blend of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: Thanks! I'll update the maps to show the arctic region. eta: Do you have a monthly blend of that? In all my digging the only monthly mean I found was from the most recent CPC weekly ENSO discussion. perhaps someone else has a better source? Here is a very current view that shows the SSTA very well. but again its simply a snapshot of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: In all my digging the only monthly mean I found was from the most recent CPC weekly ENSO discussion. perhaps someone else has a better source? Here is a very current view that shows the SSTA very well. but again its simply a snapshot of yesterday. Support is there for a .... winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Support is there for a .... winter. Go ahead and say it this thread of thought points toward a snowy winter for the East coast. Now before everyone gets excited we need this look to hold for several weeks. Models hint at some cooling in the 3.4 region.. I don’t think we see a FULL shift to a central based Niña but it’s not off the table yet. I just asked Levi at tidbits if he could add a monthly SSTA map that updates daily haha cant know until you try! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Go ahead and say it this thread of thought points toward a snowy winter for the East coast. Now before everyone gets excited we need this look to hold for several weeks. Models hint at some cooling in the 3.4 region.. I don’t think we see a FULL shift to a central based Niña but it’s not off the table yet. I just asked Levi at tidbits if he could add a monthly SSTA map that updates daily haha cant know until you try! I just realized the +snow weak nina winters don't look so weak in the enso department before those seasons have a chance. I'll still try to focus on positive insight. .... winter on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 CanSips is pretty much a door to door disaster. Raging +ao/nao start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SimeonNC said: How likely do you think this will be? I scoffed at cansnips last winter which showed similar and it pretty much nailed it, so, here’s hoping isn’t right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CanSips is pretty much a door to door disaster. Raging +ao/nao start to finish. Yup. horrific lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 37 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: How likely do you think this will be? CFS agrees, for what that is worth. It has been pretty consistent with the bad look for a while now. Normally when it shows something decent it quickly flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: How likely do you think this will be? Hard to say. Cansips seems pretty good at 1 month lead and Nov is a disaster too. Very strong +ao/nao. If that happens then the odds of no blocking goes up quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CFS agrees, for what that is worth. It has been pretty consistent with the bad look for a while now. Normally when it shows something decent it quickly flips. Winter 18-19 is gonna b rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Winter 18-19 is gonna b rockin El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time. For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: El Nino + NA blocking. Book it for real this time. For this winter, I am just gonna go with, "it cant be any worse than last winter", and we probably will not be as unlucky when we do get a decent look. It surely wont suck the whole time, but there is literally nothing to be very encouraged about right now. Well, the CanSips will prob look better with the Dec run because I don't think it's possible to draw up a worse run than tonight's. Lol The only thing that is troubling is all med and lr guidance is showing a +ao. And it's not a "muddy" +AO either. It's pretty hideous. There really are absolutely no encouraging signs showing up right now. 4 weeks till kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Damn, we're early this year. Writing off the winter before November lol Jokes aside, indices don't mean much for me. All it takes is one storm and everything changes. Past winter was arguably one of the worst for the mid-atlantic, but I got lucky with one storm, got 7 inches, ended up with (barely) AN snowfall for the winter and a 3-4 day stretch with temps constantly below 32 (even broke a record for record low high, was something like 23 degrees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, SteveVa said: Damn, we're early this year. Writing off the winter before November lol Jokes aside, indices don't mean much for me. All it takes is one storm and everything changes. Past winter was arguably one of the worst for the mid-atlantic, but I got lucky with one storm, got 7 inches, ended up with (barely) AN snowfall for the winter and a 3-4 day stretch with temps constantly below 32 (even broke a record for record low high, was something like 23 degrees) I honestly enjoyed tracking all the near misses last year and especially the sleet fest that lasted with abundant qpf. That storm could have really scored us something big if we were a few degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 WT360 is the best vendor at predicting seasonal snowfall as far as I can tell -and they have large areas of the country similar to last year, but snow deeper into the mid-South to SW relative to last year, which is certainly consistent with my thinking. I'm a fan of the Canadian as has been discussed here - but its worth noting the latest Canadian run has the NW dry for winter (WA was dry in 2016-17) so not quite a canonical outlook from the model despite a fairly healthy Nina on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not writing anything off. Just managing expectations based on the data available. Weak nina's or cold neutrals aren't a death knell or anything. This biggest issue that we seem to be facing is the potential of another GD +AO. Combine that with enso and you can't make a case for a cold winter and storm track will likely be nw of us. The only thing that saved 13-14, 14-15, and the icy winter of the early 90's (93-94?) was a sick -epo. All 3 of those winters had some problems with storm track at times but there was enough cold around to make it work. Drop enough arctic highs in the east and it will snow here eventually even with progressive flow and no blocking. The tricky part of progressive winters is even when you get the cold it moves in and out in 3 days so there has to be good timing. The technical description of a progressive flow winter is warm wet/cold dry 8 times out of 10. I really wish one damn model would show a -ao right now so at least I would have something to hug. The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 This is why I would handle the Cansips with caution. Last months predicted Nov 500mb Latest Nov 500mb prediction Last months predicted Nov temps Latest predicted Nov temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Lake Tahoe to Detroit winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: This is why I would handle the Cansips with caution. Last months predicted Nov 500mb Latest Nov 500mb prediction Last months predicted Nov temps Latest predicted Nov temps. As Bob pointed out, the CanSIPS seem to do well at a one month lead, i.e. the current run is probably much closer to what will transpire over the next month. Combine that with the current/predicted AO state, and other guidance like the CFS (check out the weeklies), we are likely going to need some serious modification to the pattern as we head into December (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mason Dixon Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. This. After reading some posts last night I expected to see deep reds over the area with +4 to +6 departures. Far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: The interesting thing about the Cansips is that temps for December are only in the +.75-1C range, January is in the +.5-.75C range, and February is in the +1.5-2C range. We can work with that to get us close to climo snowfall. Its hard to say beyond a month. Trying to glean something positive through all the smoothing, the Pac looks like it could be decent at times. We would certainly see some transient cold shots. The +AO is the most concerning thing. As I mentioned the other night, what we are seeing atm on pretty much all LR ens/climate guidance at h5 looks a hell of a lot like a composite of last winter. Hopefully something changes in our favor. It would be nice see some encouraging signs over the next couple weeks. It's still way early, and I am not resigned to the idea of a wall to wall bad winter by any means. We just need a few good periods and some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said: This. After reading some posts last night I expected to see deep reds over the area with +4 to +6 departures. Far from it. I don't have much value for 2m temps on super long range guidance. I only look at h5. The advertised mean pattern is not a good one for wintry weather in the MA. The "not as warm as expected" surface temps would probably be the result of relatively brief cold/dry periods behind fronts after a storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Well the gefs is hinting that by mid November the NAO is sinking into neutral territory. PNA is rising to neutral. And the AO is falling to neutral. That’s a look I’ll take my chances on. A lot of our winter “engines” are in motion right now and that normally causes some concern. Wait it out a couple more weeks and everything will be MUCH clearer for December and I think many will be quite happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Epo baby, Epo...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 17 hours ago, BTRWx said: Thanks! I'll update the maps to show the arctic region. eta: Do you have a monthly blend of that? I know it has nothing to do with recent posts but wanted to tie this loose end up. Levi responded to my email. There is a monthly SSTA map on tropical tidbits under the Hurricane season Analog tab! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Epo baby, Epo...... Source?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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