Winter 2017-18 Disco

[uncle W]

many negative QBO Autumns that retained it's strength throughout the winter had a better February and March on average than -QBO winters that went towards positive and above...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[Bob Chill]

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have not said too much, but I am also not overly optimistic. Based on HM's writeup, and what you have found regarding the QBO, it makes me even less so. I really think our only real shot at an overall decent winter lies with favorability in the AO/NAO domain, given most of the other indices favoring AN temps. Some persistent blocking in the NA would help to offset some of the negatives. Not to say that it wont happen, but with apparently a weak to no link between -QBO/solar and snowfall in a Nina winter, it sort of puts a damper on that theory. At best we have seen only brief periods with a useful -NAO in recent winters anyway. I still think the region as a whole should fare better than last winter, but that is not saying much. For many in our subform, a few light events and one fluke gets to climo snowfall. This doesn't work for you, but then you would tend to do better if things end up more marginal rather than overwhelmingly bad for the entire MA.

The thing that we're all struggling with right now is that the things that *could* break in our favor absolutely cannot be predicted with any accuracy right now. I get the feel that people are twisting my words a bit. When I said there is no compelling argument for a good winter I simply mean that right now there is nothing to go off of. Nothing to hang your hat on. We could have sick blocking all winter long but we won't have a clue for another 3-4 weeks and even then it's still really early. 

We could have a great winter but at this point in time you have to go with what we can see and know. And that pretty clearly shows that sub par is the most likely outcome. Which is constantly subject to change as we move forward in time. 

I never make "official" seasonal forecasts. I don't like wallowing in the mud and guesswork. There is definitely some skill to getting a long lead forecast right but good or bad luck (or guesswork) is always a good chunk of it. I always say if the most advanced computer models constantly struggle beyond a week or so, none of us are that much better doing it mentally. Especially someone like me who didn't go to school for or practice meteorology. The only thing I'm ok at is being a good guesser based on looking at thousands of model runs over the last 10-12 years. I consider myself half decent up to 2 week leads and sometimes ok with 3-4 week leads depending on how the first 2 look. A lot of us are pretty good at that.

We're still in no mans land for getting a feel for December. November loves faking people out. All you need to do is go back through all the long range Nov threads over the last 10 years to enjoy the comedy. Every warm Nov is loaded with winter cancel posts and every cold Nov is loaded with big winter incoming posts. But then December comes along and just does whatever the hell it wants. lol

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that we're all struggling with right now is that the things that *could* break in our favor absolutely cannot be predicted with any accuracy right now. I get the feel that people are twisting my words a bit. When I said there is no compelling argument for a good winter I simply mean that right now there is nothing to go off of. Nothing to hang your hat on. We could have sick blocking all winter long but we won't have a clue for another 3-4 weeks and even then it's still really early. 

We could have a great winter but at this point in time you have to go with what we can see and know. And that pretty clearly shows that sub par is the most likely outcome. Which is constantly subject to change as we move forward in time. 

I never make "official" seasonal forecasts. I don't like wallowing in the mud and guesswork. There is definitely some skill to getting a long lead forecast right but good or bad luck (or guesswork) is always a good chunk of it. I always say if the most advanced computer models constantly struggle beyond a week or so, none of us are that much better doing it mentally. Especially someone like me who didn't go to school for or practice meteorology. The only thing I'm ok at is being a good guesser based on looking at thousands of model runs over the last 10-12 years. I consider myself half decent up to 2 week leads and sometimes ok with 3-4 week leads depending on how the first 2 look. A lot of us are pretty good at that.

We're still in no mans land for getting a feel for December. November loves faking people out. All you need to do is go back through all the long range Nov threads over the last 10 years to enjoy the comedy. Every warm Nov is loaded with winter cancel posts and every cold Nov is loaded with big winter incoming posts. But then December comes along and just does whatever the hell it wants. lol

Yeah I am not suggesting we won't see stretches of trackable winter storms and a few hits. We do every winter. Last winter was pretty close to as bad as it gets wrt to actually realizing something decent. The bolded above is exactly how I feel in a nutshell. Sure things may break in our favor at times, but right now, I dont know how anyone could be leaning generally cold and snowy for the MA (outside of the high elevation microclimate locations in western MD and WV). Hopefully the PNA/EPO isn't totally hostile, and we manage some periods with more than transient ridging near Greenland. The tendency for SE/WA ridging is going to be real.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Just horrible pattern on models through Nov 15. The phases at this time of year are predictable - it could really be until January until we have a solid cold-snow pattern. 

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) 2017-18 Preliminary Winter Forecast.

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf

[WxUSAF]

38 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

DT (WxRisk) 2017-18 Preliminary Winter Forecast.

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf

Hmm...that's certainly different than most every other forecast I've seen.  DT's always been fairly pro-QBO.  We'll see if it pays off.  I'd definitely be happy with what he's forecasting.  

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmm...that's certainly different than most every other forecast I've seen.  DT's always been fairly pro-QBO.  We'll see if it pays off.  I'd definitely be happy with what he's forecasting.  

That QBO part kinda got me hyped for this winter. We'll see how are chances are I guess

[snowman19]

Psuhoffman looked extensively into the QBO during La Nina’s and found there is no correlation at all with -QBO during a Niña bringing a cold and snowy winter, in fact just the opposite. HM (Anthony Masiello) also came up with the same findings with his reasearch in that article I posted the link for yesterday. Not saying DT is wrong, or doubting it but we have some conflicting findings here. HM and Psuhoffman have very solid, convincing research with this. I guess we’ll see....

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's just veering toward warm and snowless. 

[Mason Dixon]

23 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

It's just veering toward warm and snowless. 

Warmest winter ever????  Oh wait.......

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 minute ago, Mason Dixon said:

Warmest winter ever????  Oh wait.......

7th 

[poolz1]

Not questioning to be snarky...honestly questioning out of curiosity..

@StormchaserChuck  Warm and snowless but still averaging -NAO?  I understand that a terrible Pac can negate an "on paper" -NAO.  Are your thoughts still the same for HLB?

Why are some of the years in DT's "weak ninas where QBO stayed neg" not in his "weak nina" temp anom years?  Not versed in analogs but something doesnt seem right. Fore example.. 62-63 and 81-82.

I havent heard much talk about the location of this years nina...last year's being more of a modoki and this year looks to be more east based.  Could this alter the forcing that takes place and it's location?  Though the long range looks bleak in terms of settling into a winter-like pattern as we head into mid nov, it does look quite different over N America than this time last year.  GOA low was raging already by this time last year...

A winter weenie grasping...but something looks/feels different than just a blanket carbon copy 16-17 winter.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Not questioning to be snarky...honestly questioning out of curiosity..

@StormchaserChuck  Warm and snowless but still averaging -NAO?  I understand that a terrible Pac can negate an "on paper" -NAO.  Are your thoughts still the same for HLB?

Why are some of the years in DT's "weak ninas where QBO stayed neg" not in his "weak nina" temp anom years?  Not versed in analogs but something doesnt seem right. Fore example.. 62-63 and 81-82.

I havent heard much talk about the location of this years nina...last year's being more of a modoki and this year looks to be more east based.  Could this alter the forcing that takes place and it's location?  Though the long range looks bleak in terms of settling into a winter-like pattern as we head into mid nov, it does look quite different over N America than this time last year.  GOA low was raging already by this time last year...

A winter weenie grasping...but something looks/feels different than just a blanket carbon copy 16-17 winter.

I think a few of us got distracted because Siberian snowfall was record high for the month of October. I sure was. And then winter came along, and we never settled into a winter pattern. Our "cold spells" were just dry and slightly below average occurrences. I think that we're gonna hit some good cold this year, but it's gonna be like the past 4 Winters December-wise, where we don't see much action until January

[WxUSAF]

Raleighwx seasonal forecast is out. In summary, warm December, normal januAry, cold February. BN snow. 

[Bob Chill]

CanSips is going to nail Oct for the most part. It's a good 1 month lead model. The 9/1 run didn't get Oct right though so 2 month lead gets muddy quick. This is really good though:

 

 

[The Plowsman]

DT (WxRisk) 2017-18 Preliminary Winter Forecast.

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf

Dead link.

[yoda]

25 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

Dead link.

Works for me... perhaps copy the link and then paste it in the URL Address box?

[Sparky]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Raleighwx seasonal forecast is out. In summary, warm December, normal januAry, cold February. BN snow. 

thanks for the crib notes.

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

CanSips is going to nail Oct for the most part. It's a good 1 month lead model. The 9/1 run didn't get Oct right though so 2 month lead gets muddy quick. This is really good though:

 

 

Lets hope the new CanSIPS is similar to the current run for November and into December. I will take it, esp on the Pac side. Maybe we can get some slight improvement in the AO/NAO domain, but even that looked good enough on the latest run. CFS looks god awful lately lol. Has the look of last winter's h5 composite anomaly. Its due for a different look though.

[Rtd208]

Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown.

November: Temps-above normal to much above. Confidence level 5 out of 10

December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

January: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

February: Temps- above normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10

March: Temps- above normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10

Snowfall: Below normal

For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown.

November: Temps-above normal to much above. Confidence level 5 out of 10

December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

January: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10

February: Temps- above normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10

March: Temps- above normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10

Snowfall: Below normal

For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves.

We are really going ugly early this year.  Back away boys...the cutie at the end of the bar with the razor stubble and eye patch is mine.  

[poolz1]

FWIW...latest weeklies look very similar to CanSIPS forecast for dec.  Brings back the aleutian trough early december....  Been fooled many times by the weeklies so not hanging my hat on anything.  Only found it interesting because it has some support..

 

 

[fountainguy97]

Hey guys I'd like to post some research I have done.  Feel free to critique in any way. I'm not 100% on some of the years I've chosen. Any input is appreciated!

 

So I recently took ALL weak and moderate Nina winters since 1950 and put them into two groups.  I pulled the average SSTA from each years October-December timeframe.  If they were remotely close to current SSTA I put them in one group which ended up being filled with primarily cold 1.2 regions and milder 3.4 regions.  The other group is simply any that have very little similarity to the current look.

 

current SSTA 

Composite for weak/mod ninas similar to this years SO FAR

Composite for weak/mod ninas not similar to this years SO FAR

 

 

 

Sounds like quite a bit of guesswork but bear with me. 

 

 

Temperatures across the US

 

Here is the composite for years that have some resemblance to this year and are primarily but not all east based Nina's

 

Here is the other group that are primarily central based and have little if any similarity to current SSTA

 

 

500 mb heights

 

Similar to this years SSTA

 

December

Versus ninas not similar to current SSTA

 

 

January

Ninas similar

 

Not similar

 

 

 

 

All of this points toward a loaded first half of winter. I've seen a lot of forecasts so far calling for a warmer than average December but due to my research I believe December into first part of January will be our coldest period. 

 

Also to me it seems like a weak east based nina has a lot more pattern flips as the blocking tries to assert itself.  And I know for NC atleast that we get a lot of our storms during those transitions between warm/cold and cold/warm. 

So its reasonable to assume normal snowfall for East coast WITH an increased risk of a major snow event across the Mid Atlantic and even southeast.   January 2000 was a nice month for many.  

 

If I had to make a call right now I'd say:

Dec-February will be a battle between blocking and Nina asserting itself.  This will cause much of the monthly averages to even out close to normal but probably lean positive in the +1 to +2 territory (December could likely be the exception and be cold)

Given the height map for December I put heightened risk for a solid winter pattern Mid to late December and that could bleed over into January especially if Nina stays weak.

Heightened chance for a Major east coast snow/ice storm due to unstable transitional times.

 

let me know if I've made a grave miscalculation lol

 

 

 

[Cobalt]

9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Hey guys I'd like to post some research I have done.  Feel free to critique in any way. I'm not 100% on some of the years I've chosen. Any input is appreciated!

 

So I recently took ALL weak and moderate Nina winters since 1950 and put them into two groups.  I pulled the average SSTA from each years October-December timeframe.  If they were remotely close to current SSTA I put them in one group which ended up being filled with primarily cold 1.2 regions and milder 3.4 regions.  The other group is simply any that have very little similarity to the current look.

 

current SSTA 

Composite for weak/mod ninas similar to this years SO FAR

Composite for weak/mod ninas not similar to this years SO FAR

 

 

 

Sounds like quite a bit of guesswork but bear with me. 

 

 

Temperatures across the US

 

Here is the composite for years that have some resemblance to this year and are primarily but not all east based Nina's

 

Here is the other group that are primarily central based and have little if any similarity to current SSTA

 

 

500 mb heights

 

Similar to this years SSTA

 

December

Versus ninas not similar to current SSTA

 

 

January

Ninas similar

 

Not similar

 

 

 

 

All of this points toward a loaded first half of winter. I've seen a lot of forecasts so far calling for a warmer than average December but due to my research I believe December into first part of January will be our coldest period. 

 

Also to me it seems like a weak east based nina has a lot more pattern flips as the blocking tries to assert itself.  And I know for NC atleast that we get a lot of our storms during those transitions between warm/cold and cold/warm. 

So its reasonable to assume normal snowfall for East coast WITH an increased risk of a major snow event across the Mid Atlantic and even southeast.   January 2000 was a nice month for many.  

 

If I had to make a call right now I'd say:

Dec-February will be a battle between blocking and Nina asserting itself.  This will cause much of the monthly averages to even out close to normal but probably lean positive in the +1 to +2 territory (December could likely be the exception and be cold)

Given the height map for December I put heightened risk for a solid winter pattern Mid to late December and that could bleed over into January especially if Nina stays weak.

Heightened chance for a Major east coast snow/ice storm due to unstable transitional times.

 

let me know if I've made a grave miscalculation lol

 

 

 

Honestly the late December to early January period for snowfall would be ideal.. A decent big of our snow in the past few years has been fairly late in the year and is gone rather quickly. As long as we have some good cold air and some snowfall, Im happy

[BTRWx]

Bastardi mentioned an interesting theory about modoki signals.  The same way modoki nino winters benefit our region, Bastardi claims the modoki nina winters develop cold over the inter-mountain west.  I posted a chart not too long ago comparing weak nina years and whether they showed modoki signals.  The east based 1.2 enso region is where I want to see the nina for hope in the long range.  People want optimism right?  The east nina may be more likely for this winter.

[fountainguy97]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Bastardi mentioned an interesting theory about modoki signals.  The same way modoki nino winters benefit our region, Bastardi claims the modoki nina winters develop cold over the inter-mountain west.  I posted a chart not too long ago comparing weak nina years and whether they showed modoki signals.  The east based 1.2 enso region is where I want to see the nina for hope in the long range.

I also did a lot of reasearch on modoki winter years. My conclusion from that was we want/need a cold 1.2 region to have hopes for a Niña year.  A Central pacific (modoki) Niña gives us a lot of warmth and ridging while east pacific leans toward -nao helping us out.

[BTRWx]

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

I also did a lot of reasearch on modoki winter years. My conclusion from that was we want/need a cold 1.2 region to have hopes for a Niña year.  A Central pacific (modoki) Niña gives us a lot of warmth and ridging while east pacific leans toward -nao helping us out.

It doesn't guarantee favorable trends, but it could help. 

[BTRWx]

32 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Hey guys I'd like to post some research I have done.  Feel free to critique in any way. I'm not 100% on some of the years I've chosen. Any input is appreciated!

 

So I recently took ALL weak and moderate Nina winters since 1950 and put them into two groups.  I pulled the average SSTA from each years October-December timeframe.  If they were remotely close to current SSTA I put them in one group which ended up being filled with primarily cold 1.2 regions and milder 3.4 regions.  The other group is simply any that have very little similarity to the current look.

 

current SSTA 

Composite for weak/mod ninas similar to this years SO FAR

Composite for weak/mod ninas not similar to this years SO FAR

 

 

 

Sounds like quite a bit of guesswork but bear with me. 

 

 

Temperatures across the US

 

Here is the composite for years that have some resemblance to this year and are primarily but not all east based Nina's

 

Here is the other group that are primarily central based and have little if any similarity to current SSTA

 

 

500 mb heights

 

Similar to this years SSTA

 

December

Versus ninas not similar to current SSTA

 

 

January

Ninas similar

 

Not similar

 

 

 

 

All of this points toward a loaded first half of winter. I've seen a lot of forecasts so far calling for a warmer than average December but due to my research I believe December into first part of January will be our coldest period. 

 

Also to me it seems like a weak east based nina has a lot more pattern flips as the blocking tries to assert itself.  And I know for NC atleast that we get a lot of our storms during those transitions between warm/cold and cold/warm. 

So its reasonable to assume normal snowfall for East coast WITH an increased risk of a major snow event across the Mid Atlantic and even southeast.   January 2000 was a nice month for many.  

 

If I had to make a call right now I'd say:

Dec-February will be a battle between blocking and Nina asserting itself.  This will cause much of the monthly averages to even out close to normal but probably lean positive in the +1 to +2 territory (December could likely be the exception and be cold)

Given the height map for December I put heightened risk for a solid winter pattern Mid to late December and that could bleed over into January especially if Nina stays weak.

Heightened chance for a Major east coast snow/ice storm due to unstable transitional times.

 

let me know if I've made a grave miscalculation lol

 

 

 

Weak versus moderate teleconnection signals seem increasingly important to me.  Moderate nina is highly unlikely this winter.

[BTRWx]

On 10/27/2017 at 11:01 AM, mitchnick said:

The reason why I'm a bit more optimistic than Bob and PSU is that I'm not completely sold on the Nina. I like this ENSO map because it presents a clearer picture than the other maps with 50 shades of blues and yellows. Anyway, today's map is below. Then, the next image is the ENSO temp change in the last 7 days and the final map are the progged PAC winds for the next 7 days, blues for trade winds (builds Nina) and yellows and tan for westerlies (builds Nino). As you can see, this Nina is on life support imho. Finally, if you click on the link below (click on T-Depth Anomalies), you can see the underwater temps seem to be rising again off the S American coast. Now, is all this warming temporary? Could be, but this Nina is supposed to peak around January 1, so with the last ONI number at only -.1C, it's paltry. To me, that's important because it allows other factors to muscle the atmosphere around, or at least the chance. Hence, my optimism for 75%-125% snowfall chances at BWI.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

 

 

This is an interesting thought.  Before enso trended predominantly toward a weak nina, recall I made a comment mid-late summer that I was booking on 2016-2017 2006-2007 that eventually became a nino.  My idea on that has obviously changed, but the more neutral signal is quite fascinating!

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, BTRWx said:

Bastardi mentioned an interesting theory about modoki signals.  The same way modoki nino winters benefit our region, Bastardi claims the modoki nina winters develop cold over the inter-mountain west.  I posted a chart not too long ago comparing weak nina years and whether they showed modoki signals.  The east based 1.2 enso region is where I want to see the nina for hope in the long range.  People want optimism right?  The east nina may be more likely for this winter.

I've seen that mentioned several times now. My guess is that everything is relative. In a modoki Nino, the warmth/upward forcing is centered further west near the dateline, which is where we (in the Mid Atl) want it. In a Nina where the coldest temps are in region 1+2 cause the "relative warmth" to be centered westward near the dateline. The forcing is not as great as what you get in a Modoki Nino, but it still gives us (MA) better results.